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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #421
  • Jul 22, 2018 2:45pm Jul 22, 2018 2:45pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum seen on the XAUUSD market in June 2018 has waned. On the monthly time frame, price action printed an ambivalent candlestick at a support zone around the 1221.00 area and in confluence with an ascending trendline (red) from the low of November 2015, which is in play as support. A significant breakdown of the trendline is likely to expose the next horizontal support around the 1148.30 area; which of course is too ambitious a target at the moment. There will surely be a series of sideways operation and northward pullbacks before the target is taken by bears. In fact, bulls may attempt a retest of the minor resistance around the 1269.20 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the XAUUSD market is operating in a triangular consolidation channel (red). Last week, a pinbar was printed at the channel support and hinted at a bullish rejection of the area. We should also note that the lower tail of the pinbar entered a horizontal support that has held as support since July 2017. However, the 200-pip tail of the pinbar may witness an interest by bears. Thus, we may see some sideways operation in the area or a northward pullback of price action this week. The 1260.00/1270.00 zone is likely to be a target of any bullish drive but a bearish test of the pinbar tail around the 1221.00 area can not be ruled out. What happens on Monday this week regarding price action will be of interest. For example, a retest of the pinbar tail is likely to be a clue for a buy trade if a bullish setup is given around the 1221.00 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame printed a bullish pinbar on Thursday last week around a major horizontal support and it saw a follow-through on Friday with a bullish engulfing candlestick. We are likely to see a bullish continuation this week. A likely target of bulls is the former support zone around 1263.30/1285.10 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). We should also be aware of the descending trendline (black) from the high of May 2018, which may act as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I am bullish XAUUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #422
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:19pm Jul 22, 2018 3:19pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the AUDUSD on the weekly time frame is operating in a descending channel (black) after breaking southward a larger ascending channel (red). The first three of the past five weeks saw price action hitting the channel support and rejecting it with long-tailed, lower-wick candlesticks. However, there has been little bullish follow-through and this is seen in the indecision candlesticks printed in the last two weeks. Nevertheless, there is a horizontal support zone around where the lower tails of the candlesticks were printed and we may see some northward move this week, particularly with the bullish pinbar printed last week. We may see bulls take price action to a retest of the monthly pivot (0.74683) or around the high of the doji-like candlestick (0.74829) printed two weeks ago. The area is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time frame. Such a move is small compared to the potential for a southward disposition which is technically supported.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Recent price action on the daily time frame is in consolidation. A horizontal channel (magenta) is apparent, covering the 0.73260/0.74870 range. The bullish candlestick printed last week Friday may see bulls take price action to the channel resistance in the early part of this week. However, we are likely to see a southward turnaround in that area or around the descending trendline (blue) from recent highs. This southward turnaround is what I will be gunning for. At any rate, I am bearish aussie and will look for a sell trading opportunity after a northward retracement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_22nd_July,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #423
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:56pm Jul 22, 2018 3:56pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The cable market has been ambivalent since the 700-pip southward drop in May 2018. Price action has formed a series of wicky-candlesticks in a sideways operation around a support zone in the past five weeks. On the weekly time frame, price action broke below the consolidation zone but bulls pushed it back; resulting in the printing of a long-tailed candlestick. Basically, this suggests that bulls have not yet relinquished control of the market even though there is a greater propensity for a southward disposition. However, further attempt by bulls to push back price action northward is likely to be corrective in nature. It is apparent from a technical perspective that bears are intent at taking price action to the 1.28000/1.27000 zone, which was the origin of a northward rally in June 2017. The immediate support is around the 1.27700 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action is bearing southward and respecting a descending trendline (red) from the high of April 2018. However, last week Friday, the market printed a relatively big bullish engulfing candlestick. Technically, this shows the intent of bulls to take price action further northward; at least to retest a broken down support zone. Such a zone is the 1.32140/1.32740 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines). Thereafter, we are likely to see a southward turnaround for a bearish continuation. It is equally possible that price action bounces off the descending trendline (red) and turns southward.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is operating in a descending channel (red) and in alignment with a descending trendline seen on the daily time frame. Recent price action is heading northward towards the channel resistance. A likely target of such a move is the high of the relatively big bearish candlestick formed towards the close of London session on Tuesday last week and may extend to around 1.32925, the high of the week printed by price action last week Monday. Thereafter, we are likely to see a southward turnaround. Nevertheless, we should keep in mind that the market may decide to head southward at the channel resistance or around the monthly pivot (1.32432). At any rate, I am bearish GBPUSD and will wait for an appropriate set-up after the corrective northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #424
  • Jul 29, 2018 2:56pm Jul 29, 2018 2:56pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market is consolidating. On the weekly time frame, the market is operating in a narrow descending channel (black) after breaking down a larger ascending channel (red). In the last six weeks, price action has been operating in a horizontal channel with a narrow range; which portends a strong breakout after the current consolidation. Technically, the market favours the bears, more so with the rejection of the larger channel (red) by a bearish pinbar eight weeks ago. But a likely reason for the lack of bearish momentum is that price action is currently located around a horizontal support which is in confluence with a support trendline (blue) from the low of January 2016. Thus, we may see further sideways operation or a retracement to around the 0.75300 area, a recently broken down horizontal support, before a southward turnaround. A break down of the support trendline (blue) is likely to provide impetus for a bearish momentum and may see bears target the immediate horizontal support around the 0.71660 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has shown a technical pattern; whereby a period of consolidation yields to a southward move. Currently, we are in a consolidation regime (magenta) and a southward move is likely to follow. On Friday, the market printed an inside candlestick, which technically is ambivalent. We may have to wait to see what happens on Monday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_July_29,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #425
  • Jul 29, 2018 3:05pm Jul 29, 2018 3:05pm
I am bearish AUDUSD but I will wait out the Monday session.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The AUDUSD market is consolidating. On the weekly time frame, the market is operating in a narrow descending channel (black) after breaking down a larger ascending channel (red). In the last six weeks, price action has been operating in a horizontal channel with a narrow range; which portends a strong breakout after the current consolidation. Technically, the market favours the bears, more so with the rejection of the larger channel (red) by a bearish pinbar eight weeks ago. But a likely reason for the lack of bearish...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #426
  • Jul 29, 2018 3:35pm Jul 29, 2018 3:35pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

For much of 2017 to June 2018, the XAUUSD market was operating in a consolidating ascending channel (blue) which was broken down in June 2018. In July 2018, the channel support was retested and role flipped. Price action is heading southwards and currently located around a horizontal support in the 1229.40 area. An ascending trendline (red) from October 2008 may act as support should bears manage a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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From the weekly time frame, it is apparent that the market had been on a retracement of the downward swing from the high of September 2012 to the low of November 2015. The downward swing experienced a 38.2 Fib retracement in July 2016. Thereafter, a general wave analysis shows that the market experienced two southward (impulsive) waves before it morphed into an ascending consolidating channel (blue). The consolidating channel has been broken down and price action is now around the intersection of a horizontal support and an inner support trendline (magenta). We may experience a sideways operation in the area in the early part of this week but should bears seize the initiative, we are likely to see price action continue southward and target the outer support trendline (red) from October 2008 or the horizontal support around 1180.30/1177.10.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_W1_July_29,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


On the H4 time frame, bottoming candlesticks are printed around a horizontal support area. However, this does not necessarily mean a reversal is taking place but possibly a northward retracement. Given the context of the weekly time frame, we may see further southward move after a northward retracement. The immediate horizontal support is around 1180.30/1177.10.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_H4_July_29,_2018.png Size: 42 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #427
  • Jul 29, 2018 3:47pm Jul 29, 2018 3:47pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market was largely ambivalent last week; it printed a doji-like candlestick on the weekly time frame. The price is in an area which has seen much sideways operation since June 2018 and had witnessed congestion in October and November 2017. A long-tailed candlestick which was formed two weeks ago is acting as a master candlestick and the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame last week attempted to test its high without success; bears are apparently now positioned to test its low. Should there be a bearish follow-through, we may see the 1.27710 area exposed. The area saw the start of a strong northward move in August 2017. However, we should be wary of an ascending trendline (red) from the low of January 2017 which may act as support and hinder a bearish momentum. The trendline has been tested four times and may likely be broken; but there is also the possibility of a bounce off the trendline. A bounce off the trendline may see bulls retest the monthly pivot (1.32432), which adjoins the high of the candlestick printed last week. Stepping aside to see what market does on Monday would be a reasonable thing to do in the circumstance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, the market is consolidating along a descending channel (black). The order flow context is in favour of bears and it seems that the current consolidation is largely a slowing down of the bearish move. A bearish engulfing candlestick was printed last Thursday within the channel but there was no bearish follow-through on Friday. A bearish continuation is likely to see bears target the channel support or the 1.29400 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the market has recently breached a minor support (now resistance) around the 1.32090 area (magenta horizontal line). The most recent price action shows a struggle between bulls and bears. We may see a pullback or sideways operation on Monday before directional clarity. A pullback may be to 1.31630 (an immediate minor resistance) or even to a retest of the 1.32090 area, while a sideways price action is premised on the struggle between bulls and bears last week Friday. I will be stepping aside for now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_July_29,_2018.png Size: 48 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #428
  • Jul 30, 2018 2:20am Jul 30, 2018 2:20am
Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The GBPUSD market was largely ambivalent last week; it printed a doji-like candlestick on the weekly time frame. The price is in an area which has seen much sideways operation since June 2018 and had witnessed congestion in October and November 2017. A long-tailed candlestick which was formed two weeks ago is acting as a master candlestick and the candlestick printed on the weekly time frame last week attempted to test its high without success; bears are apparently now positioned to test its low. Should there be a...
Noted. Thanks KP
Never Ever Give Up
  • #429
  • Jul 30, 2018 2:22am Jul 30, 2018 2:22am
Thanks KP for your analysis. May God bless you
  • #430
  • Jul 30, 2018 2:29am Jul 30, 2018 2:29am
You too mate.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting mryousuf
Thanks KP for your analysis. May God bless you
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #431
  • Jul 30, 2018 2:30am Jul 30, 2018 2:30am
Hey bud!

Trade safe.

KP

Quoting sumar
{quote} Noted. Thanks KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #432
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:12pm Aug 5, 2018 2:12pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has been bearish since May 2018. However, the bearish momentum seems to be waning as price action enters a significant horizontal support zone, the 1204.70 area, which was last visited in July 2017. A confluence of resistance in the shape of an ascending trendline (black) from the low of November 2015 reinforces the area as a barrier.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the market turned southward in early June 2018 after breaking down an ascending channel (blue) that has been in operation for several months. In the last three weeks, price action has printed bearish candlesticks that have been constrained by bulls as it approaches a horizontal support zone around the 1200.00 area. The candlestick printed last week was not able to break down the zone but instead respected a support trendline (black) from the low of November 2015. We may expect bears to attack this zone this week. However, as the recent candlesticks printed by price action have been ambivalent, we may see bulls give bears a good fight. The result may be a sideways operation or a brief northward retracement before a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action on the daily time frame is disposing southward. The market has moved below a descending trendline (chocolate) from the high of April 2018 and price action is now respecting an inner trendline (blue). The candlesticks printed since July 2018 have mainly been ‘wicky’ and resulted in the formation of a mini-triangular pattern (magenta), which was broken down on Wednesday last week. There was a bearish follow-up on Thursday last week but bulls intervened on Friday to take price action northward, retesting the base of the triangle (magenta). We may see a brief northward move or sideways operation early this week before bears regain control of the market. The horizontal support around 1200.00/1195.00 is likely to be exposed should bears garner the momentum for their drive.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLD_Daily_August_5,_2018.png Size: 34 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #433
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:37pm Aug 5, 2018 2:37pm
I am bearish XAUUSD. However, I will wait for a pullback of price action to an area of value on the H4 or D1 time frame before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The XAUUSD market has been bearish since May 2018. However, the bearish momentum seems to be waning as price action enters a significant horizontal support zone, the 1204.70 area, which was last visited in July 2017. A confluence of resistance in the shape of an ascending trendline (black) from the low of November 2015 reinforces the area as a barrier. {image} On the weekly time frame, the market turned southward in early June 2018 after breaking down an ascending channel (blue) that has been in operation for several...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #434
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:50pm Aug 5, 2018 2:50pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Technically, the EURUSD is disposed southward on the monthly time frame. In January 2018, the market saw a 61.8 Fib retracement of the southward move from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016. There was a sideways operation in the area in January 2018 through March 2018 before bears seized control of price action for a southward move. The market was in consolidation in June and July 2018 but technically the bears are favoured. The horizontal support at the 1.14400/1.13400 zone is likely to be of interest as target of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the weekly time frame, the market has largely been consolidating in the past 10 weeks. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick that breached the low of a bullish pinbar formed three weeks ago. There are still a few lower wicks of previous candlesticks to be breached before bears could control the market. In fact, there are a few horizontal barriers below current location of price action for bears to scale. However, although the 1.14480 area is a key horizontal support, it is likely to be within reach of bears this week. But we should note the ascending trendline (red) from the low of December 2016 which may be a barrier.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_August 5, 2018.png Size: 68 KB


On the daily time frame, the market is now in a support zone that has held on many occasions in the past, effectively since October 27, 2017. But any breach of the support by bears is not likely to lead to much southward drive as the immediate horizontal support is less than 100 pips southward and an ascending trendline (red) seen on the weekly time frame is still in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 5, 2018.png Size: 57 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #435
  • Aug 5, 2018 2:53pm Aug 5, 2018 2:53pm
I will step side on this pair as the market is still ambivalent. I will wait for directional clarity in the market.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Technically, the EURUSD is disposed southward on the monthly time frame. In January 2018, the market saw a 61.8 Fib retracement of the southward move from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016. There was a sideways operation in the area in January 2018 through March 2018 before bears seized control of price action for a southward move. The market was in consolidation in June and July 2018 but technically the bears are favoured. The horizontal support at the 1.14400/1.13400 zone is likely to be of interest...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #436
  • Aug 5, 2018 3:37pm Aug 5, 2018 3:37pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The relatively big bearish candlestick printed on the monthly time frame in May 2018 is acting as a control or master candlestick for subsequent price action. The candlestick printed in June 2018 attempted the low of the May 2018 candlestick but price action could not go far to breach it. Then the July 2018 candlestick surged northward to hit the high of the May 2018 candlestick but ended up being an indecision candlestick. The candllestick so far printed in August 2018 is bearing south and it is just a few pips short of the significant horizontal support around the 128.130 area, which is also the low of the candlestick printed in July 2018. Given the nature of the candlestick patterns printed by recent price action, we may see bears take the market further southward.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Last week, a bearish pinbar was printed by price action with its tail piercing a resistance zone on the weekly time frame. This is a bearish follow-through of the price action began three weeks ago. Although we may have a slight pullback in the early part of this week, we can expect a bearish continuation in the main. The bears may target the horizontal support around the 127.050 area. However, we should be wary of an ascending trendline (navy) from the low of April 2017, which may be a hindrance to any bearish momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYWeekly_August 5, 2018.png Size: 64 KB


On the daily time frame, recent price action has carved out an ascending channel (magenta). Presently, price action is located around the channel support and the candlesticks printed in the last three days of last week are disposed in favour of bears. But a break of the channel support is likely to see bears face further barrier in the shape of the horizontal support around 128.210; which may likely result in a corrective pullback, perhaps to around the previous minor horizontal support turned resistance around 129.300. Thereafter, we may see a southward turnaround, which is likely to give impetus for a bearish momentum that may see bears attempt to take out the horizontal support around 127.050/126.600.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily_August 5, 2018.png Size: 62 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #437
  • Aug 5, 2018 3:52pm Aug 5, 2018 3:52pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Three weeks ago, the GBPUSD market entered a significant support zone that was last crossed northward in September 2017, and printed a long-tailed rejection candlestick. A doji-like candlestick was printed a week later, indicating the strong barrier bears are facing around the zone. Last week, a slightly bearish candlestick was printed but the wicks on both ends indicate that bears are not in control of the market. This is expected at such a zone but the bulls are not in control either. Technically, bears are still favoured and we may see another attack by bears to break down the zone. A successful breakdown of the zone by bears is likely to expose the 1.27500 area. Notice that price action has breached a support trendline (red) from the low of January 2017, which is likely to act as resistance. I will only be interested in a sell trade when the horizontal support around the 1.29250 area is breached or if price action retraces northward and offers a bearish setup around an area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 5, 2018.png Size: 55 KB


It is apparent from the H4 time frame that the market has a significant bearish disposition. And that the current market mode, or prevailing mood, is merely a corrective operation. In the main, the market is in consolidation and it is disposed to turn bearish thereafter. Recent price action is now operating in a descending channel (black) and bearing southward. A mini descending trendline (magenta) is in play and may act as resistance to any bullish move. Technically, the bears are favoured to take price further southward but we cannot rule out a northward pullback. A retest of the mini trendline (magenta) is likely to lead to a southward turnaround. However, should bulls manage to breach it northward, we should watch price action around the broken down ascending trendline (red), seen on the weekly time frame, for any significant bearish setup. Technically, the bulls are not favoured to sustain any northward move. I am bearish GBPUSD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4_August 5, 2018.png Size: 68 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #438
  • Aug 12, 2018 2:38pm Aug 12, 2018 2:38pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The market has been in consolidation (blue) for several weeks. The consolidation channel was broken down in the last week of June 2018. However, price action did not go far southward before it entered a minor sideways operation in July 2018. Last week, price action printed a relatively big bearish continuation candlestick, which is indicative of the intent of bears to take price further southward. The horizontal support around the 0.63700 area may be a target of bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, price action has recently breached a minor horizontal channel just below the major channel (blue) seen on tne weekly time frame. Of course, such a pattern is supportive of a bearish disposition. Nevertheless, as the follow-up price action was parabolic in nature we may see a northward pullback to the minor channel area or to the descending trendline (navy) from recent highs before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_D1_12th_August,_2018.png Size: 49 KB


I am bearish NZDUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #439
  • Aug 12, 2018 2:49pm Aug 12, 2018 2:49pm
EURUSD Weekly Outlook

For several weeks, the EURUSD market has been consolidating. Last week, the market moved southward beyond the lower channel line of the consolidation. Price action on the weekly time frame is now at an S/R zone and we should watch how the market handles the zone in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, the market experienced a parabolic drop from the area of consolidation where it has operated for quite a long while. Such a move is not likely to be sustainable and is likely to be followed by a pullback. We may expect the market to have a pullback to the 1.15200 area, which is a broken down support area and then role-flipped as resistance. This is likely to result in a southward turnaround. A descending trendline (magenta) from July 31, 2018 is likely to act as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_12th_August,_2018.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #440
  • Aug 12, 2018 3:30pm Aug 12, 2018 3:30pm
Good job @keenpips

I stumbled on this thread today and I am pleased that the analysis you have posted and that which I did earlier are in agreement. Like you said; "trade safe and prosper...follow the footprints of big money." Let's gather those pips...it's going to be a great week!!!
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