Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD is technically disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, a few weeks back, price action retraced to a broken down support zone around the 0.66870 area before it turned southward three weeks’ ago. Last week saw another northward correction but bears mitigated the move; leading to the printing of a bullish candlestick with a longer upper tail. This indicates that bears have been wrestling bulls for market control. Price action is presently located around a horizontal support in the 0.65040 area and we may see a sideways of price action before any bearish momentum. However, should bears manage to seize control of the market, we may see them target the next horizontal support around the 0.63900 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (chocolate). Four bearish waves have formed within the channel with correspomding corrective pullbacks. A fifth bearish wave seems to be in the offing and the technicals are in sync.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a minor ascending corrective flag (magenta). A southward breach of the flag is technically likely to lead to a bearish continuation and an increased southward momentum.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action is still operating in a descending channel (black) on the weekly time frame. However, the bearish candlestick formed two weeks’ ago failed to produce a follow-up last week. Instead, there was a strong bullish pullback which inched towards the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks’ ago before bears managed to push price action southward. Technically, there is still a struggle between bulls and bears, but we may see this resolved in the early part of this week. The 0.71940 area is a horizontal resistance while the next horizontal support is located around 0.70180.



On the H4 time frame, price action is in a consolidating phase within an ascending triangle (magenta). Such a pattern is technically prone to a southward breakout. However, in a period of uncertainties or ambivalence as we currently have in the markets, it is better to step aside and wait for clarity of price action. Much likely, a break of the triangle support will lead to a bearish continuation and momentum.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been operating in a big descending channel (red) for quite a long while. But the EURUSD is a perfect example of how ambivalent the current market conditions are. Two successive printing of bearish pinbars (three and two weeks’ ago) failed to produce a significant bearish follow through. In fact, last week, there was a strong northward retracement of price action that targeted the high of the bearish pinbar printed three weeks’ ago. Technically, this showed how strong an S/R level the 1.16050/1.17350 zone is.

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As shown in the second weekly chart below, price action is constrained by two ascending trendlines from November 2016 (black and blue); and a southward momentum may be limited until the outer trendline (blue) is significantly broken down. Nevertheless, as price action has struggled to break down the inner ascending trendline (black) after the bearish pinbars printed three and two weeks’ ago, a southward breach of the inner trendline (black) is likely to offer a feasible trade for bears. Such a move may target the outer ascending trendline, and even extend to the horizontal support around the 1.13100 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending triangle or wedge (magenta). Presently, bears are taking price action towards the wedge support. A break of the wedge support is likely to embolden bears to target other support zones, and there a few such zones below the 1.16050 area. It is also possible that bulls take price action to the wedge resistance; but that may offer a good opportunity to fade such a move for a southward turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Thanks KP for your assessment.
May God bless you

You too mate. And thanks for your encouragement.

Trade safe, and you will prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

I am sorry that I am just posting this. I had been on a very busy schedule today.

The XAUUSD market has been on a southward mode for a while, particularly after breaking down a corrective upward mode. On the weekly time frame, price action broke southward of the ascending channel (red) in which it has been operating since mid-2017 and has continued southward since. However, recent price action has been sideways and there may be a northward corrective pullback. Nevertheless, the technicals favour a southward turnaround after any northward pullback. The 1233.60 area is a horizontal resistance.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (black), which is in line with the bigger technical picture. Presently, it is located just below channel resistance as there has been a sideways operation since August 28, 2018. Any northward breakout of the consolidation is likely to be temporary and corrective. We are likely to see a continuation of a southward momentum thereafter. The support around the 1160.00 area may be attractive to bears as a target.

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I am bearish XAUUSD.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

I am sorry that I am just posting this. I had been on a very busy schedule today.

The EURUSD market has continued to amaze, technically speaking, thanks to the strong congestion area or S/R zone around 1.15450/1.18400. On the weekly time frame, the zone experienced much sideways operation of price action for quite a long while except in August 2018 when bears took it southward to retest an ascending trendline (black) from the low of December 2016. It broke that trendline but snapped back northward printing a bullish reversal candlestick that led to an emerging support trendline (red). Last week, price action printed a bullish continuation candlestick that threatened the 1.18400 area but fell short by just 45 pips. Bears intervened to pull back price action but the attempt was rather feeble. We may see a struggle between bulls and bears to take control of the market this week. It seems bulls will make another attempt at the 1.18400 area when the market opens.



On the daily time frame, price action has moved northward of an ascending trendline (magenta) from the low of August 2018. However, presently, there is little momentum for a northward continuation. The market was in consolidation for the most part of last week until bulls managed to break out northward on Thursday with a relatively big bullish candlestick. Bears attempted a southward pull back on Friday but their effort was restrained by bulls, resulting in the printing of an indecision candlestick. We may see this struggle for control of the market continue on Monday. But judging from the strong intent of bulls towards the end of last week, they may still manage to take price action further northward. The next resistance is around 1.18400, just a few pips away. And if bulls are able to seize control of the market, the resistance around 1.19230 may be exposed. Alternatively, a southward pullback by bears is likely to first target the support trendline (magenta) from the low of August or the horizontal support around 1.16200.



Personally, I am stepping aside from this market. While my technical bias is medium-term bearish, I feel the market is still in a consolidation phase overall.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since breaking down an ascending channel (red) in June 2018, AUDUSD has been on a descending mode. On the weekly time frame, price action has made a southward wave with an accompanying 38.2 Fib northward pullback. Last week, price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick. However, the fact that it has tails on both ends shows that the bears are not totally in control and we may experience some bullish resistance in the early part of this week. The 0.73100 area may act as a minor resistance for any bullish price action before a southward continuation. A major horizontal resistance is around the 0.73800 area while the 0.70200 area is a horizontal support.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (blue). Last week Wednesday, the market printed a bearish pinbar around a minor horizontal resistance (0.72910) but it lacked a proper follow-through. On Friday, bulls attempted a northward pullback but they were hindered by bears, resulting in the printing of an insignificant candlestick. We may see another attempt at a northward move by bulls in the early part of this week. Bulls may want to retest the horizontal resistance around 0.72910, or the channel resistance, before a southward turnaround. The monthly pivot around 0.72730 is also a possible initial target of bulls. At any rate, the technicals still favour a bearish disposition of the market.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has broken southward of a minor ascending trendline (magenta) and retested a former horizontal support (black). However, the bearish candlestick printed at the end of last Friday’s session has a shadow at its lower end, indicative of some bullish pressure. We may see some bullish price action, perhaps to retest the broken down horizontal support (black) or the broken down ascending trendline (magenta) for a sustainable role flip. I am bearish AUDUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market continued a southward mode after breaking down a horizontal channel (red) in June 2018. However, on the weekly time frame, recent price action has been sideways, forming another horizontal channel (black) in a major S/R zone. However, the technicals are still in favour of a bearish outlook of the market. A descending trendline (chocolate) is likely to act as resistance.

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On the daily time frame, a sideways operation is presently sustained. Price action printed a bullish candlestick last week Friday. This is not a signal for any bullish bias but indicative of the struggle between bulls and bears. Waiting for a southward breakdown of the horizontal channel (black) is likely to offer a more feasible trading opportunity; targeting the 1160.00 area.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is bearing northward within a horizontal channel (black) seen on the daily time frame. This is technically a temporary pullback as the major outlook on both the weekly and daily time frames favours a southward mode. A minor resistance is in the 1200.00/1210.00 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). A daily bearish setup within the zone is likely to give me confidence for a southward turnaround. I am bearish XAUUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market has been on a northward retracement for some weeks. Two weeks ago, price action printed a bearish pinbar around a horizontal resistance that is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib level of the drop from April 2018 high to the low of August 2018. However, apparently owing to Brexit uncertainties, there was no significant bearish follow-through. But after a northward retracement into the 50/61.8 zone of the candlestick printed two weeks ago, price action printed another bearish candlestick last week. Technically, we are likely to have some southward move this week. The 1.29170 area is a minor support. A major support zone, which is still distant, is the 1.26520 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel. Given the technical patterns on the weekly time frame and the overall technical outlook prevailing on the daily time frame, this is a temporary correction. We are likely to see momentum for a southward continuation upon the breakdown of the channel. I am bearish GBPUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the XAUUSD market broke down an ascending channel (black) on the weekly time frame in June 2018. Since then it has disposed southward. However, in the last eight weeks, price action has been sideways in a horizontal channel (red). A breakdown of the channel is likely to lead to a bearish continuation.

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On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (magenta). Two descending price waves with accompanying corrections have been formed on the daily time frame. The present consolidation of price action in the horizontal channel (red) is part of the second correction, and we may expect a bearish continuation thereafter. Presently, price action is near the channel resistance and the descending trendline. Should there be a bearish setup in the area on a daily closing basis, we may have a feasible sell trading opportunity. Nevertheless, a breakdown of the horizontal channel below the 1182.10 area on a daily closing basis is likely to provide impetus for a southward continuation.

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I am bearish XAUUSD.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on GBPUSD on the monthly time frame broke down a multi-year ascending triangle (red) in September 2015 and has since disposed southwards. The market experienced a 61.2 Fib retracement of the breakdown from the high of September 2015 to the low of October 2016 in January 2018. It operated sideways in the 50/61.8 Fib zone for four months before disposing southwards in April 2018. Price action is now bearing southward in a descending channel (black) and we may expect a bearish continuation after the recent correction that bounced off the channel resistance.

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On the weekly time frame, price action printed a series of long-tailed candlesticks in the last three weeks around a horizontal resistance zone after a northward retracement that began in the third week of August 2018. Although, technically, a southward bias is favoured, there is still room for further northward move. We need to wait for clarity of price action before committing to a trade

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On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating in an ascending wedge (blue). Presently price action is bearing northward after printing two bullish candlesticks last week Thursday and Friday. We may expect the wedge resistance to be a target of bulls, but the horizontal resistance around the 1.32750 area is an option. A bearish setup around either the wedge resistance or the 1.32750 area is likely to give a feasible sell trading opportunity.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been largely consolidating. The monthly time frame shows a market operating in a descending channel (black). Price action is presently disposed southward in the channel and located at a horizontal support around the 1.15490 area. Given the bearish pinbar formed in that area in September 2018, we may see the market continue southward with bears eyeing the low of the hammer candlestick printed in August 2018.

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On the weekly time frame, the bullish move that began in August 2018 lost steam in September owing to bearish price action. Yet the bearish disposition that began two weeks ago has been hindered by limited momentum owing to resistance by bulls. Presently, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (red) and bearing southward near the wedge support. We may expect further southward move in the early part of this week but it is not likely to be sustainable unless the wedge support is broken.

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On the daily time frame, after a period of a southward move between April and early May 2018, price action has been largely in a series of corrective move. Since September, price action has disposed southward. However, the candlesticks printed by price action last week Thursday and Friday were in favour of bulls; although they lacked conviction owing to the shadows on both ends and the fact that they are located around a resistance zone. We may see bears seize the initiative to move price action further southward. The immediate support is around 1.13420

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The EURUSD is not a pair I would be interested in at the moment as a swing trader. I held a bearish disposition on EURUSD in early September 2018 and had since closed my trade. Unless you have taken a southward disposition since early September, it seems wise to step aside. However, a breakdown of the ascending wedge seen on the weekly time frame on a daily closing basis is likely to give impetus for a bearish continuation.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

The best trade in the Forex Market now in my opinion :

Explain :

Colors = blue candle red candle blue candle red candle (red blue red blue) then come 2 red, so that pattern say there is blue power is coming

AB=CD = As you can see the blue arrow from point a to point b is equal to the next blue arrow from point c to point D , so AB=CD its mean up power is coming

BB= Bollinger band, price touch the first BB at the Monthly chart so its mean up move is coming

Trendline = trend line buy point is the 3-time price touch it, so you can see in orange 1 2 3, I connect 2 low (1 and 2) and the price gets to 3
from the 3 touch price need to go up

So 4 different tools say that this CAD/NZD need to go up

EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURAUD market has disposed northward for quite a while. An ascending trendline (red) which originated from November 2016 is still in play on the monthly time frame. Price action so far in November is inching towards a resistance zone, around the 1.65700 area, which has held since August 2015. The immediate horizontal support is around the 1.61500 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action has moved farther away northward from the ascending trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame. This is an indication of increased northward momentum. An outer trendline (navy) was formed by price action originating from June 2018, but the most recent price action is respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta). In general, this pattern indicates that the EURAUD market is still respecting a northward mode. It will likely take a southward break of the outer trendlne (navy) to negate a bullish market mode on this pair. A pullback of price action, presently seen on the daily time frame, is likely temporary in nature and may provide a feasible buy trading opportunity this week.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is in consolidation within an ascending channel (black). The overall technical outook supports a bullish mode. A retest of the monthly pivot around 1.61490, or the inner ascending trendline (magenta) seen on the daily time frame, is likely to re-ignite a bullish continuation on the pair. I am bullish EURAUD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD is operating in an ascending channel (black) on the weekly time frame. Presently, price action is disposing northwards in the channel and located around a horizontal resistance, the 1.86030 area. Last week, price action printed a small bearish inside candlestick in the context of a bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago. Technically, we should await further price action before trading on a directional bias.



On the daily time frame, price action has moved further norhthward of an outer ascending trendline (blue) respecting an inner ascending trendline (magenta), indicative of an increase in bullish momentum. Nevertheless, current price action is on a southward pullback. A target of such a pullback is the inner ascending trendline (magenta) or even the outer ascending trendline (blue). The area around 1.83410 (red) is a horizontal support zone. However, a southward break of the outer ascending trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis will likely negate the bullish tone.



A look at the H4 time frame, shows a GBPAUD presently in a corrective consolidation after a series of impulsive northward moves. Based on the technical pattern on the H4 time frame, we may expect price action to retest the broken horizontal resistance around the 1.83170/1.83950 zone before a northward continuation.



I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD is disposed northwards on the weekly time frame and an ascending trendline (blue) from recent lows is being respected. The 1.33150 area is the immediate resistance; any break above this level is likely to be hindered by the resistance around the 1.34420 area. The 1.29300 area is technically the immediate horizontal support.



On the daily time frame, the GBPUSD is technically on a down trend. However, recent price action is in a corrective consolidation along an ascending channel (blue), which peaked around the 38.2 Fib retracement of the southward drop from the high of April 17, 2018 to the low of August 15, 2018. Thus, a southward technical bias is likely to meet with a high probability of success, particularly should price action print a bearish setup around the channel resistance or the horizontal resistance around 1.33150 or 1.34420 on a daily closing basis.



A descending channel (magenta) has emerged on the H4 time frame and recent price action is operating within it. Presently, price action is located near the channel resistance; which is also near a horizontal resistance around the 1.31170/1.30880 area (bound by horizontal black lines). Technically, that area of confluence is likely to produce a feasible southward trade should price action print a bearish setup in the area on a daily closing basis. A technical target of a bearish turnaround is the horizontal support around the 1.29300 area.




I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been operating in a multi-year descending channel (red) on the monthly time frame. This seems to be an extended corrective phase of an impulsive ascending trend which started in March 2002. This correction reached a 78.6 Fib retracement level in December 2016. Thereafter, price action disposed northwards, operating in an ascending channel (black). However, since July 2018, price action has been stuck in a horizontal channel (bound by two horizontal blue lines). Technically, the EURUSD is ambivalent at the moment.



On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (black) which is the support of the ascending channel seen on the monthly time frame. Last week, price action formed a relatively small bullish candlestick with wicks on both ends, meaning that bulls are not totally in control. However, as the candlestick formed two weeks ago is a rejection of the same area, we may see bulls take prie action further northwards this week. Nevertheless, we may not see much northward move as there are a few hindrances on the way up.



On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating and respecting the horizontal channel (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. We may need to still wait for clarity of market direction on this pair.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market has disposed northwards for quite a while, respecting an ascending trendline (black) from 2012. Presently, on the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a corrective descending wedge (magenta). It is also currently located near the wedge resistance, printing bullish continuation candlesticks in the last two weeks. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.33760 area while the 1.27670 area is a horizontal support.

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In the context of an ascending trendline (black), seen on the weekly time frame, from 2012, price action on the daily time frame is operating in an ascending channel (red). However, presently it is disposed southwards along a smaller descending channel (blue), located at the channel resistance and in confluence with a horizontal resistance around the 1.31000 area. The 1.29170 /1.31680 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is likely to act as congestion area, and we may see a southward rotation before a bullish continuation.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is disposed northwards. Although a bearish candlestick was printed during the last session on Friday, the technicals still favour the bulls. As price action is located near the channel resistance (blue) seen on the daily time frame, we may see a temporary slow down of bullish momentum. But the upper zone of the congestion area (magenta) identified on the daily time frame is just 60 pips northward and is within reach of bulls. Two ascending trendlines, an inner (dark violet) and an outer (green) will likely act as support for a bullish disposition. However, a breakdown of the outer trendline (green) will likely give an impetus to a southward momentum.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP