Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses | Page 21 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Major Pairs/Crosses - Trading Scenarios, Analyses & Forecasts 15 replies

Weekly/Monthly TOP Gainers Forexfactory Traders 4 replies

Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and S&P 76 replies

USD/CAD - Loonie Toons, & mostly pointless analyses 2 replies

Lazy analyses thread 56 replies

Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
Exit Attachments

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #401
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:18pm Jul 1, 2018 3:18pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is largely disposed northward. An ascending trendline from the low of February 2018 on the monthly time frame is in play and acting as support. In June 2018, the market moved to a horizontal resistance around the 1.33920 area and bounced back leading to the formation of a bullish candlestick with a long upper wick and a shorter lower wick; which, technically, is an indication that bears fiercely contested a bullish dominance of the market and a southward disposition is likely.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_MN_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 43 KB


On the weekly time frame, a bearish candlestick with a long upper wick was formed last week. This apparently was a follow-through of the bearish pinbar formed two weeks ago. The fact that last week’s candlestick engulfed the previous candlestick technically points to the likelihood of a southward continuation in the days ahead. However, we may not expect much southward move as bears will have to contend with the horizontal support around the 1.30410 area. Besides, a minor ascending trendline (black) from recent swing lows is in play and could act as support. Should bears breach these support zones southward, they are likely to target an outer ascending trendline (chocolate) or the next horizontal support around the 1.28510 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_W1_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 47 KB


On the H4 time frame, bears are taking the market southward. However, from the small bearish candlestick printed in the last session of Friday, it is apparent that bears were losing their influence. So, we may see bulls give them a struggle in the early part of this week before a southward continuation materializes. Besides, we may expect the market to pull back northward for a retest of the broken previous horizontal support zone around 1.32050/1.32280, possibly for a role flip. We may have to also note the descending trendline (magenta), which may need be retested with a northward retracement by price action to confirm it as an active support before a southward continuation. Overall, the short term technical disposition on the USDCAD is bearish and we may see bears target the support around 1.29090 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_H4_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 43 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #402
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:36pm Jul 1, 2018 3:36pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 50 KB

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, GBPUSD printed rejection candlesticks at an S/R zone that was last crossed northward in November 2017. This zone, 1.30800/1.33180, is also in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement zone of the northward move since January 2017. Besides, the lower tail of the pinbar formed last week pierced an ascending trendline (black) from the low of January 2017 and bounced off it. Very much likely we may see bulls take the market further northward this week. An initial target area is the 1.34440 area; which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the northward move since January 2017. The 1.36180 area, a major resistance zone (purple), may be attractive for a bullish follow through. However, that is still very much beyond the reach of bulls at the moment.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 47 KB


The rejection candlestick formed around a support zone last week Thursday was followed up by a bullish drive on Friday. The candlestick printed on Friday covered more than 150 pips and took price action to the next minor resistance around the 1.32260 area. It will not be a surprise if bulls take control of price action this week to drive the market to the 1.34230 area, the origin of a recent major downward move on the daily time frame. It is significant to note that a descending trendline (blue) from the high of May 17, 2018 has been breached northward last Friday. However, as the candlestick formed on a Friday, we may have to wait till Monday this week for a bullish confirmation on a daily closing basis. I normally don’t trade on Monday, so I will wait for clarity of price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 47 KB


On the H4 time frame, the GBPUSD market is disposed northward. A minor ascending trendline (magenta) is emerging. A successful testing of the trendline by price action is likely to give me confidence for a bullish bias. This is more so as a descending trendline (red) from the high of April 17, 2018 is in play as resistance and the the most recent price action stopped around it. Besides, there is a minor horizontal resistance, around 1.32260, acting as a confluence. So, we may see a southward retracement first.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #403
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:54pm Jul 1, 2018 3:54pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Last month, an indecision candlestick was printed in the EURUSD market. It is noteworthy to observe that the low (1.15091) of this indecision candlestick is very close to the low (1.15071) of the lower-wick candlestick printed in May 2018; which is indicative of the likelihood of a northward follow through this month.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MN_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 44 KB


Last week a bullish pinbar was formed at a support zone on the weekly time frame. The zone has witnessed four rejections by weekly candlesticks in the past six weeks. This indicates a higher probability of a northward turnaround or disposition this week. Should bulls succeed in taking price action northward, we may see them target the 1.20440 area in the days ahead. Furthermore, an ascending trendline (red) from the low of December 2016 is still in play as support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 49 KB


EURUSD has been in congestion at a support zone on the daily time frame for several days. Last week Friday, a relatively big bullish candlestick threatened the resistance around the 1.1700 area. But there is still an attractive area northward, the 1.18500 area, which is around the high of the bearish candlestick printed on June 14 and may be an initial target of bulls. The 1.18500 area is also in confluence with the immediate horizontal resistance. Once the bulls are able to take the 1.18500 zone, the 1.19600 area may be exposed. The 1.19600 area is equivalent to the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of April 2018 to the most recent low in June 2018.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 46 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is now located around a descending trendline (black) and close to the horizontal resistance around the 1.1700 area. The order flow context is in favour of bulls. However, they will have to breach both the descending trendline and the horizontal resistance northward for any bullish momentum to be sustainable. We may see a retracement southward or a sideways operation before this happens.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_1st_July,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 52 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #404
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:59pm Jul 1, 2018 3:59pm
My technical bias on the USDCAD is bearish on a short term basis. Technically, we may see price action bounce off the outer ascending trendline (chocolate) on the W1 time frame and align with the bigger technical outlook, which is bullish. Thus, it will take a breach of the outer ascending trendline (chocolate) on the W1 time frame on a daily closing basis for me to continue holding on to the bearish bias for a longer term period.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook The USDCAD market is largely disposed northward. An ascending trendline from the low of February 2018 on the monthly time frame is in play and acting as support. In June 2018, the market moved to a horizontal resistance around the 1.33920 area and bounced back leading to the formation of a bullish candlestick with a long upper wick and a shorter lower wick; which, technically, is an indication that bears fiercely contested a bullish dominance of the market and a southward disposition is likely. {image} On the weekly...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #405
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:00pm Jul 1, 2018 4:00pm
I am holding a bullish bias on the GBPUSD market on a short term basis. But, I will wait for price action to retrace southward for a retest of the minor asscending trendline (magenta) on the H4 time frame before looking for a buy trading opportunity. Of course, a sideways operation of price action around the 1.32260 area in the early part of this week will also pique my interest and I will look for a bullish setup after the consolidation.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
{image} GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook On the weekly time frame, GBPUSD printed rejection candlesticks at an S/R zone that was last crossed northward in November 2017. This zone, 1.30800/1.33180, is also in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement zone of the northward move since January 2017. Besides, the lower tail of the pinbar formed last week pierced an ascending trendline (black) from the low of January 2017 and bounced off it. Very much likely we may see bulls take the market further northward this week. An initial target area is the 1.34440...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #406
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:01pm Jul 1, 2018 4:01pm
Technically, the EURUSD market is still bearish in the medium to long term. But on a short term basis, I am holding a bullish bias on the market. I will wait for a southward pullback or a consolidation on the H4 time frame before looking for a northward market entry.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Last month, an indecision candlestick was printed in the EURUSD market. It is noteworthy to observe that the low (1.15091) of this indecision candlestick is very close to the low (1.15071) of the lower-wick candlestick printed in May 2018; which is indicative of the likelihood of a northward follow through this month. {image} Last week a bullish pinbar was formed at a support zone on the weekly time frame. The zone has witnessed four rejections by weekly candlesticks in the past six weeks. This indicates a higher...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #407
  • Jul 8, 2018 2:39pm Jul 8, 2018 2:39pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Four weeks ago, price action on the XAUUSD broke southward a support trendline (black) from the low of December 2016. The break is also equivalent to a southward breach of an ascending channel (black) within which price action has operated for more than 12 months. Last week, the market printed a bullish pinbar on the weekly time frame on an outer ascending trendline (red) from the low of November 2015. The location of the pinbar is also in confluence with a horizontal zone, 1241.86/1261.18, that has held as support for several months. Technically, we may see price action head northwards; first to retest a broken down horizontal support turned resistance around 1273.33, and, if bulls meet with success, may retest the breached channel support around the 1295.40 area and role flip it as resistance. Doing that is likely to give impetus for a longer term bearish disposition of the XAUUSD market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_W1_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, the XAUUSD market is operating in a descending channel (red). Currently, the price action is disposed northward and located in a horizontal S/R area. The technicals still favour further northward move and we may see bulls head towards the channel resistance, perhaps around 1288.58, particularly if they managed to successfully breach the horizontal resistance around the 1273.66 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_D1_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 51 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action has broken northward a Tom Demark’s type descending trendline (blue). A retest of the trendline (blue) for a role flip or a confirmation of an emerging ascending trendline (magenta) as support is likely to lead to further northward move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_H4_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #408
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:08pm Jul 8, 2018 3:08pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

AUDUSD held a bearish tone for the most part of June 2018. Given the fact that the candlestick printed in June had the bulls pulling price action northward towards the end of the month, it is not surprising that the early part of July 2018 has seen some bullish moves. However, in the main, the technicals favour a southward disposition of the market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_MN_9th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 42 KB


On the weekly time frame, AUDUSD has rejected an ascending channel (red) southward and now respecting a descending trendline (blue), which is in play as resistance. Price action is now operating in a horizontal support zone around 0.73900. Last week, the market printed a bullish pinbar around this support zone and we may expect a northward move in the early part of this week. The 0.75290/0.76160 area is likely to be an initial target of bulls. However, I will not be trading this pullback. I will be waiting for price action to either retest the support trendline (blue) or enter the mean area between the moving averages I use for measuring mean reversion and drive southward when it gives me a setup on a daily or four-hourly closing basis. Nevertheless, technically, the 0.75290/0.76160 area is an area I will watch for a potential southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 52 KB


Price action on the H4 time frame is now bearing northward. Given the technical outlook on both the MN and W1 time frames, we may expect bulls to go for a retest of a broken down ascending channel (black) before a potential southward turnaround. The 0.76160/0.76710 area is a horizontal resistance and very much in confluence with the breached channel support; which is likely to be a place to watch for potential sell trading opportunity. As the market can do whatever it chooses, we may see a possible southward turnaround near the minor horizontal resistance around the 0.74840 area (magenta), which is near the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 54 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #409
  • Edited Jul 9, 2018 9:28am Jul 8, 2018 3:33pm | Edited Jul 9, 2018 9:28am
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The strong bearish move on the GBPUSD market that began in April 2018 continued for the most part of May 2018. However, bulls gave bears a good fight in June, leading to the printing of an ambivalent candle which favoured them. Thus, the bullish price action seen so far in July 2018 could be seen as a continuation of the struggle for control which gave an edge to bulls toward the end of May. However, longer term, the technicals, with relatively big bearish candlesticks and generally longer term descending trendlines (red and chocolate), on the monthly time frame indicate that bears are likely to make a strong showing after the current northward push by bulls. The problem is that we do not know exactly when the bullish operation will end.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_MN_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 45 KB


On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel (black). Current price action is located at around the channel support. Before last week, price action made two attempts to reject the support zone northward but there was no follow through by bulls. However, last week, price action printed a bullish pinbar, indicating a potential follow through for a bull market this week. But the 1.35400 area is likely to see some resistance to the potential bullish move. Should bulls overcome the area, we may see them target the channel resistance or the horizontal resistance around the 1.42790 area. A breakdown of channel support may see the next horizontal support around 1.22710 exposed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_W1_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 47 KB


On the H4 time frame, GBPUSD has rejected a descending trendline (blue) from the high of April 17, 2018. It is now respecting an ascending trendline (magenta) from recent lows. As current price action is around a minor horizontal resistance, we may see some sideways operation early this week before further northward move. A retest of the ascending trendline (magenta) is not unlikely; and that may be what I need to trade the market northward, albeit on a short-term basis. The 1.35410 area is likely to be an initial target of bulls, although they may be challenged around the 1.34450 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 46 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #410
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:48pm Jul 8, 2018 3:48pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market had been bearish for the most part of April and May 2018. The candlestick printed in June was ambivalent, doji-like, which was largely a reflection of the struggle between bulls and bears in the latter part of May 2018. So it is not surprising that the early part of July 2018 has seen some bullish moves. Also, the market has entered a strong horizontal support zone, which is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement of the upward swing since December 2016. Thus, we may see bulls take price action further northward, particularly if the ascending trendline (red) holds.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_MN_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 46 KB


On the weekly time frame, the EURUSD is operating in an ascending channel (red), reflecting the ascending trendline seen on the monthly time frame. The last five candlesticks printed on the weekly time frame have been with long lower tails, indicating a bullish rejecting of the horizontal support zone. Last week the candlestick printed was hammer-like and represented a follow-through of the bullish pinbar printed two weeks ago. Technically, price action is rejecting the support and we may see bulls take the market further north. Bulls may target the channel resistance but the horizontal resistance around 1.19260/1.20110 will need to be taken out first.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_W1_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 48 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action is heading northward and an inner ascending trendline (chocolate) is being respected as support. We should also be aware of an outer ascending trendline for a longer term use as support. The order flow context favours bulls and we may see them take the market further northward, with the horizontal resistance around 1.19260/1.20110 a favorable technical target. However, we may see bears attempt a pullback of price action to the inner trendline (chocolate) or even the minor horizontal support around 1.16490/1.159990 (bound by horizontal magenta lines) before an impetus for a bullish momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_8th_July,_2018_Top_Down.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #411
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:56pm Jul 8, 2018 3:56pm
On the short term, I hold a bullish bias on this market. But longer term, particularly should price action struggle around the 1.35400 area or the 1.42790 area, I will reconsider my technical bias for a southward disposition.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The strong bearish move on the GBPUSD market that began in April 2018 continued for the most part of May 2018. However, bulls gave bears a good fight in June, leading to the printing of an ambivalent candle which favoured them. Thus, the bullish price action seen so far in July 2018 could be seen as a continuation of the struggle for control which gave an edge to bulls toward the end of May. However, lnger term, the technicals, with relatively big bearish candlesticks and generally longer term descending trendlines...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #412
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:58pm Jul 8, 2018 3:58pm
I am bullish on this pair. But I will wait for a southward pullback of price action and then look for a feasible bullish setup on at least a four hourly closing basis.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook Four weeks ago, price action on the XAUUSD broke southward a support trendline (black) from the low of December 2016. The break is also equivalent to a southward breach of an ascending channel (black) within which price action has operated for more than 12 months. Last week, the market printed a bullish pinbar on the weekly time frame on an outer ascending trendline (red) from the low of November 2015. The location of the pinbar is also in confluence with a horizontal zone, 1241.86/1261.18, that has held as support...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #413
  • Jul 8, 2018 4:05pm Jul 8, 2018 4:05pm
Quoting KeenPips
I am bullish on this pair. But I will wait for a southward pullback of price action and then look for a feasible bullish setup on at least a four hourly closing basis. KP {quote}
check you DM....thanks
  • #414
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:15pm Jul 15, 2018 2:15pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is in a consolidation phase. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (blue) since December 2016. Recent price action is disposed southward and currently located at channel support. Two weeks’ ago, the market printed a bullish pinbar at channel support but there was no sustainable bullish follow-through. Price action printed an indecision candlestick last week in favour of bears but we may have to wait for clarity of market bias this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_W1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 52 KB


The technicals on the daily time frame are in favour of a southward disposition. However, as current price action is located around a minor horizontal support zone (the 1239.90 area), which is in confluence with the support trendline of an ascending channel (blue), we may see a sideways operation and/or a northward retracement before any southward continuation. The minor horizontal resistance around 1263.50/60 may be exposed as a northward retracement target. A minor descending trendline (red) is in play.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_D1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


On the H4 time frame, the order flow is in favour of bears. A minor descending trendline (magenta) is in play and the technicals are synced southward but the market mode is a consolidation. Towards the end of last Friday sessions, price action was slightly influenced by bulls but the two candlesticks printed were small in size. Nevertheless, should bulls attempt to push price action northward in the early part of this week, we may see them target the minor horizontal resistance around 1250.08/1257.06 (bound by horizontal magenta lines) or the minor descending trendline (magenta) before a southward turnaround. Failure on the part of bulls may see bears seize the initiative after a sideways operation. An initial target of bears is likely to be the horizontal support around 1213.90.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_H4_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #415
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:12pm Jul 15, 2018 3:12pm
Thank you KP for a very nice assessment on GOLD
May God bless you
  • #416
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:14pm Jul 15, 2018 3:14pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook


A series of ascending trendlines – major (red), inner (chocolate) and minor (navy) – on the monthly time frame of the USDCAD indicate that the market is much disposed northward and likely to remain so for some time. Although the bullish candlestick printed in June 2018 has a long upper tail, current price action seems poised to target the high of that candlestick. In fact, the high is located at the upper end of a horizontal resistance (1.32360/1.34160) and current price action has entered the zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_MN_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating in an ascending channel (magenta). Last week Wednesday, the market printed a bullish outside candlestick around the monthly pivot that breached the highs of six previous candlesticks. Although bears stepped in on Thursday to mitigate the bullish move, they did not meet with much success. A minor ascending trendline (blue) is in play as support and we may see bulls seize the initiative this week and drive price action to the next resistance around the 1.34150 area. Of course, we may see a bit of southward retracement of price action before momentum for a northward drive is sustained. A likely target of a southward retracement is the minor trendine (blue) or the monthly pivot, which is around 1.31240.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_D1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 58 KB


A triangular pattern (black) is apparent on the H4 time frame, formed by recent price action. In the context of a bullish disposition on higher time frames (e.g. monthly and daily), we may wait for a 1-2-3 price action to confirm a bullish set up. A southward retracement toward the monthly pivot is likely to provide such a setup. However, we will have to wait for how the market handles the Monday session.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_H4_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 57 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #417
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:19pm Jul 15, 2018 3:19pm
You too mate. Thanks for your encouragement.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting mryousuf
Thank you KP for a very nice assessment on GOLD May God bless you
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #418
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:26pm Jul 15, 2018 3:26pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The NZDUSD market has been operating in a wide-range horizontal channel (blue) for quite a long while. Two weeks’ ago, the market printed lower-tailed bullish rejection candlestick at the channel support and at an intersection with an ascending trendline (red) from the low of March 2009. Howevder, a bearish candlestick was printed last week; which was largely a negation of the one printed two weeks’ ago. Thus, we may have to wait for clarity of market play this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_W1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


On the daily time frame, the NZDUSD is operating in a descending channel (black). Last week Wednesday, price action printed a relatively big bearish candlestick which breached the support zone around the 0.68260 area. However, on Thursday and Friday last week, bulls resisted further southward move and constrained price action to sideways operation. We may expect some struggle between bulls and bears in the early part of this week before a southward continuation. The next horizontal support zone is around the 0.65540 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_D1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 51 KB


On the H4 time frame, price action printed a bullish pattern in the latter part of Friday sessions. The last candlestick formed inched towards the high of the bearish candlestick formed earlier in the day but failed to breach it. A minor descending trendline (chocolate) is in play and likely to act as resistance. This trendline may be tested by price action before a southward tunaround. We may even see bulls take price action northward towards the breached former minor horizontal support around 0.67790/0.68050 (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before yielding control to bears, flipping it as resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_H4_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #419
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:39pm Jul 15, 2018 3:39pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on the AUDUSD has been in a consolidation phase in the form of an ascending channel (magenta) for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, the market has moved southwad of channel support but the southward momentum lacks confidence. In the main, the AUDUSD market has been ambivalent since the third week of June 2018 and price action is currently locatred near a horizontal support. Last week, price action printed a doji-like candlestick, an indication that the market lacks directional bias or the momentum is waning. We may have to wait for clarity of market direction or directional momentum in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 53 KB


On the daily time frame, the market has been in a consolidation phase for some time. Last week Wednesday, price action printed a relatively big bearish candlestick following a retest of a breached horizontal support around the 0.74800 area. However, as the candlesticks printed on Thursday and Friday last week were bullish, we may see bulls retest the 0.74800 area to flip it as resistance in the early part of this week. Such a flip is likely to provide impetius for a southward move. A descending trendline (black) from January 2018 high is in play and may act as resistance. The 0.72590 area is the immediate horizontal support zone.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_D1_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 50 KB


The order flow on the H4 time frame shows a series of phases where a period of distribution is followed by accumulation/consolidation. The recent price action is a part of an accumulation/consolidation phase (blue). We may see a period of distribution or a southward flow of price action following this. How price action behaves within the minor ascending channel (consolidation), shown in blue, on the H4 time frame in the early part of this week should be of interest. I will track the market for a southward turnaround of price action around the channel resistance or an area proximal to the horizontal resistance around the 0.74800 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_Top-Down_15th_July,_2018.png Size: 56 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #420
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:57pm Jul 15, 2018 3:57pm
Technically, I hold a bearish view of this market. But I will wait for the market to show me its disposition after Monday session. I expect a northward retracement to a mean area first before considering a sell trading opportunity.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The XAUUSD market is in a consolidation phase. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (blue) since December 2016. Recent price action is disposed southward and currently located at channel support. Two weeks’ ago, the market printed a bullish pinbar at channel support but there was no sustainable bullish follow-through. Price action printed an indecision candlestick last week in favour of bears but we may have to wait for clarity of market bias this week. {image} The technicals...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
5 traders viewing now