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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep... might give it another try though because I do not see any fundamental catalyst to drive it down yet. We need some news that takes the air out of the bubble. {image}

funny infographic!
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep... might give it another try though because I do not see any fundamental catalyst to drive it down yet. We need some news that takes the air out of the bubble. {image}


that graphic summarizes the socio-economic experiment known as the euro better than most well known economists do!

the problem is that it may also apply to the entire fiat currency/fractional reserve banking system... that is a bit scary
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} that graphic summarizes the socio-economic experiment known as the euro better than most well known economists do! the problem is that it may also apply to the entire fiat currency/fractional reserve banking system... that is a bit scary
a bit scary you say? LOL More like "terrifying"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
hi DHT and PT,

the current currection (since yesterday) in EU speaks of more upside to me. It may be that the rise to current levels was a-b-c (of wave A) and we're in B now with a showstopper C to follow. Whenever I see a large degree zigzagging like that following a long PA needle - i expect the emerging structure to be at least three wave.

I've got us going to 1.50 in a diagonal made up of ABCs from here. A bit over-the-top - i know - but that's what the only viable count I can come up says. If i'm wrong it's better because I still hold some EJ shorts I'd like to cover.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} a bit scary you say? LOL More like "terrifying"

just tryin to be macho while shakin in my boots...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting venzen
hi DHT and PT, the current currection (since yesterday) in EU speaks of more upside to me. It may be that the rise to current levels was a-b-c (of wave A) and we're in B now with a showstopper C to follow. Whenever I see a large degree zigzagging like that following a long PA needle - i expect the emerging structure to be at least three wave. I've got us going to 1.50 in a diagonal made up of ABCs from here. A bit over-the-top - i know - but that's what the only viable count I can come up says. If i'm wrong it's better because I still hold some...

there is a clear possibility of more upside based on the daily chart (fib providing support + sequential trigger)

but, like you, i want to see downside on this pair for exactly the same reason...

if i see her going thru the 78.6, i may just cut my EJ losses and chalk it up to poor analysis on my part... it happens to the best of us!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} just tryin to be macho while shakin in my boots...
Just like Obama then.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting theDHT
{quote} that graphic summarizes the socio-economic experiment known as the euro better than most well known economists do! the problem is that it may also apply to the entire fiat currency/fractional reserve banking system... that is a bit scary

this is what i find humourous about the Gold Bug forums (plenty of Goldheads over at ZH)... the sheer wide-eyed terror and nugget clutching angst of a "Zombie Tomorrow". Guess I wouldn't understand it If i wasn't prone to some sweaty fretful sleep about what these suited maniacs have in store for us. I'm just glad I have a mango grove, rice paddie and borehole to fall back on should the markets (and our brokers) fizzle back to the stone age in a tumultous crash.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Just like Obama then. {image}

... except i get no love from the Russians (without spending $$)!!




off to gym, back in an hour...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting venzen
hi DHT and PT, the current currection (since yesterday) in EU speaks of more upside to me. It may be that the rise to current levels was a-b-c (of wave A) and we're in B now with a showstopper C to follow. Whenever I see a large degree zigzagging like that following a long PA needle - i expect the emerging structure to be at least three wave. I've got us going to 1.50 in a diagonal made up of ABCs from here. A bit over-the-top - i know - but that's what the only viable count I can come up says. If i'm wrong it's better because I still hold some...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} there is a clear possibility of more upside based on the daily chart (fib providing support + sequential trigger) but, like you, i want to see downside on this pair for exactly the same reason... if i see her going thru the 78.6, i may just cut my EJ losses and chalk it up to poor analysis on my part... it happens to the best of us!
Consider this count by Sid from two weeks ago>>> http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp...0m-8-21-13.png
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting venzen
{quote} this is what i find humourous about the Gold Bug forums (plenty of Goldheads over at ZH)... the sheer wide-eyed terror and nugget clutching angst of a "Zombie Tomorrow". Guess I wouldn't understand it If i wasn't prone to some sweaty fretful sleep about what these suited maniacs have in store for us. I'm just glad I have a mango grove, rice paddie and borehole to fall back on should the markets (and our brokers) fizzle back to the stone age in a tumultous crash.

i guess i know where im headed if the world falls apart tomorrow then!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting venzen
{quote} this is what i find humourous about the Gold Bug forums (plenty of Goldheads over at ZH)... the sheer wide-eyed terror and nugget clutching angst of a "Zombie Tomorrow". Guess I wouldn't understand it If i wasn't prone to some sweaty fretful sleep about what these suited maniacs have in store for us. I'm just glad I have a mango grove, rice paddie and borehole to fall back on should the markets (and our brokers) fizzle back to the stone age in a tumultous crash.
Yep. You cannot eat gold.
We have a borehole, olive trees, fruit trees, land to plant vegetables, lots of chickens, roosters, Geese, ducks rtc. All we need now is sheep.
So bring it on.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} a bit scary you say? LOL More like "terrifying"


Mmmm.....back to barter then........I think I better go out and check on my new currency
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Trading Levels with WRBs
Quoting theDHT
{quote} there is a clear possibility of more upside based on the daily chart (fib providing support + sequential trigger) but, like you, i want to see downside on this pair for exactly the same reason... if i see her going thru the 78.6, i may just cut my EJ losses and chalk it up to poor analysis on my part... it happens to the best of us!

boy, there's a lot i want to respond to in this asynchronous conversation, but let me start with this post. If EU lifts off from here its not because of anything inherent to the Euro and it's region. It could logically only be USD weakness that does that. If the USD goes down (in a diagonal wave 5) then UJ goes down too - BoJ cannot outprint a terminally declining USD. UJ down and EU up == EJ down. So i have no fear of UJ and EJ going to the moon - that's just some fuzzy logic... BoJ doen't want a weak Yen per se, they want a growing economy as a primary objective and weakening the Yen is an extraordinary measure that becomes ineffective as soon as the growth materialises. It is not possible to have a growing economy AND a weakeneing currency at the same time. Am i oversimplifying this? I don't think so, but tell me straight if i'm being naive.

I'm more bullish the Yen after the last few days and seeing the lefthand side of massive H&S patterns building there. We need to assess how much upside is still likely and perhaps cut the losers now to maximise margin for the winning shorts later.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Islander
{quote} Mmmm.....back to barter then........I think I better go out and check on my new currency {image}
LOL. Good Morning Cpt Pimp. That picture has been recycled too many times. I think it's time for a new one.

Any scalps this morning?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. You cannot eat gold. We have a borehole, olive trees, fruit trees, land to plant vegetables, lots of chickens, roosters, Geese, ducks rtc. All we need now is sheep. So bring it on.

Amazing, PT. glad to hear you're safe in the subsistence department. Nevermind subsistence - while some Goldbug is frittering his Golden Eagles away for a bag of beans each, you'll be popping olives and drinking ground water!

DHT, please tell me you're not in the suburbs, dude...
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} LOL. Good Morning Cpt Pimp. That picture has been recycled too many times. I think it's time for a new one. Any scalps this morning?
OK - but all of this hand picking and monitoring of one's assets is sooooo tiring......

Only one small sell in UJ so far - again, Asian ranges were tight, so another slow start in Europe.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
Quoting venzen
{quote} boy, there's a lot i want to respond to in this asynchronous conversation, but let me start with this post. If EU lifts off from here its not because of anything inherent to the Euro and it's region. It could logically only be USD weakness that does that. If the USD goes down (in a diagonal wave 5) then UJ goes down too - BoJ cannot outprint a terminally declining USD. UJ down and EU up == EJ down. So i have no fear of UJ and EJ going to the moon - that's just some fuzzy logic... BoJ doen't want a weak Yen per se, they want a growing economy...
You say in your post that you may be simplifying things. Well let's see if I can simplify it further.

Not sure how long you have been following the market's reactions to general sentiment, but what we have here with the Yen is based on risk appetite and risk aversion. The BOJ has finally successfully followed the Fed and launched extraordinarily loose monetary policy and that has added to the global risk appetite. However, the BOJ's efforts will all be undone as soon as the Fed starts tightening or as soon as the market sees that the Fed is ready to start (tapering).

So this is how I see it playing out once tapering is announced...

Unwinding of the bubble created in the global equity markets with a goal to equalize the market from it's overpumped state to a more realistic level. In such an adjustment, the Yen will gain strength against everything except the USD and the USD will gain strength against everything.

Therefore,
- USD/JPY up or flat
- EUR/JPY down.
- XXX/USD down
- USD/XXX up

Those who are not prepared for such an event, will be crying for a long time to come.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Consider this count by Sid from two weeks ago>>> http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp...0m-8-21-13.png

thanks PT

Sid's count is valid and feasible. It suggests a predominantly strengthening USD either before (or after) the coming FOMC.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Islander
{quote} OK - but all of this hand picking and monitoring of one's assets is sooooo tiring...... Only one small sell in UJ so far - again, Asian ranges were tight, so another slow start in Europe.....
Unfortunately yes. So that is why I have planned an outing today which obviously will include a light lunch by the sea.
Going to prepare soon and then I'll be gone till NY session.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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