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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #69,561
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:22pm Sep 10, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I tend to agree with this thinking... Rather be safe and give up a few pips than make a bad move in the second half and lose the trade!

ever the opportunist - i tried this one and failed... -5 pips venzen.

@PT - thanks for the examples - i'll go and find them and commit to long term storage
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,562
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:26pm Sep 10, 2013 1:26pm
EJ diagonal?

you have to admire the market for managing to trick the majority on each and every turn.

remember how we were so convinced UJ and EJ were in slow burning triangles? respected triangle TLs and all for months already? Well check this out:

It could be a B wave pushing above the May top, but i'm thinking the way this sprung out of the woodwork it's an ending diagonal (although a bit squashed) for wave 5 of (V)

http://ubuntuone.com/7Rz0jMtU2WsAfLO7Nf2Piy
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,563
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:27pm Sep 10, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I tend to agree with this thinking... Rather be safe and give up a few pips than make a bad move in the second half and lose the trade!
As indicated yesterday and earlier today, I was expecting one final push up to complete this abc correction.
What we were missing this morning was the final wave v of c.
Now the wave v is almost complete (or it may actually have completed in a truncated v) and is currently painting the final 5th wave of v of c

Here's the updated count

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,564
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:37pm Sep 10, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting venzen
EJ diagonal? you have to admire the market for managing to trick the majority on each and every turn. remember how we were so convinced UJ and EJ were in slow burning triangles? respected triangle TLs and all for months already? Well check this out: It could be a B wave pushing above the May top, but i'm thinking the way this sprung out of the woodwork it's an ending diagonal (although a bit squashed) for wave 5 of (V) {image}
Looking good venzen. Add credibility to my Euro bearish outlook.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,565
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:54pm Sep 10, 2013 1:54pm
Attached Image


Bucket shop is a brokerage firm that “books" (i.e., takes the opposite side of) retail customer orders without actually having them executed on an exchange... In the case of Forex, without actually having them executed in the FX market.

Without an actual underlying transaction, the customer is betting against the bucket shop operator, not participating in the market. Alternatively, the bucket shop operator "literally 'plays the bank,' as in a gambling house, against the customer.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,566
  • Sep 10, 2013 1:54pm Sep 10, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting venzen
EJ diagonal? you have to admire the market for managing to trick the majority on each and every turn. remember how we were so convinced UJ and EJ were in slow burning triangles? respected triangle TLs and all for months already? Well check this out: It could be a B wave pushing above the May top, but i'm thinking the way this sprung out of the woodwork it's an ending diagonal (although a bit squashed) for wave 5 of (V) {image}

so whats the prognosis doc?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,567
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:00pm Sep 10, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} As indicated yesterday and earlier today, I was expecting one final push up to complete this abc correction. What we were missing this morning was the final wave v of c. Now the wave v is almost complete (or it may actually have completed in a truncated v) and is currently painting the final 5th wave of v of c Here's the updated count {image}

for the sake of my (deeply underwater) EJ and GJ shorts, i hope you are spot on about euro and cable!

your counts look ok to me, but im not much of an expert on ew, i use it very sparingly and usually on H4+ time frames (daily etc)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,568
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:16pm Sep 10, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} for the sake of my (deeply underwater) EJ and GJ shorts, i hope you are spot on about euro and cable! your counts look ok to me, but im not much of an expert on ew, i use it very sparingly and usually on H4+ time frames (daily etc)
EW is equally effective and accurate on all time frames... even tick charts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,569
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:23pm Sep 10, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Looking good venzen. Add credibility to my Euro bearish outlook.
Any further Dollar declines are likely to be limited, with forecasts that the Federal Reserve seems set to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from the current $85 billion pace, when it next meets on September 17th and 18th.

Although Friday's payrolls were disappointing, in general the fundamentals appear strong enough to support the stimulus cutbacks. After the tapering, focus will shift to interest rate rises, though most economists don't predict any rises until 2014 or 2015.​
Sounds stupid but true.
Per aspera ad astra
  • #69,570
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:31pm Sep 10, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting jpadvisor
{quote} Any further Dollar declines are likely to be limited, with forecasts that the Federal Reserve seems set to begin tapering its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from the current $85 billion pace, when it next meets on September 17th and 18th. Although Friday's payrolls were disappointing, in general the fundamentals appear strong enough to support the stimulus cutbacks. After the tapering, focus will shift to interest rate rises, though most economists don't predict any rises until 2014 or 2015.​ Sounds stupid but true.
Well the tapering will take at least 6 to 9 months, so by that time inflation forecasts will start to creep in and the next focus will undoubtedly be rate hikes. However, any such rate hikes will be very limited until the economy is in full swing and the inflation forecast becomes dangerously high... like perhaps 2.5%

Regardless, buy dollar dips.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,571
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:34pm Sep 10, 2013 2:34pm
09.10.13
Closing thoughts

Is the Asian/EM sell-off of the last several weeks overcooked?

this chart may hold a clue

USD/SGD

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD SGD 09.10.13.png Size: 91 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,572
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:37pm Sep 10, 2013 2:37pm
hope everyone made more than they lost today!

good fight
good night
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,573
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:40pm Sep 10, 2013 2:40pm
Quoting theDHT
09.10.13 Closing thoughts Is the Asian/EM sell-off of the last several weeks overcooked? this chart may hold a clue USD/SGD Daily {image}
Looks like a potential future double top the way you drew it, but you cannot dismiss the yellow trend line I drew in there.
With the absence of a lower high, that trend line has huge potential to spring board price to a new high. Just sayin'
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD SGD 09.10.13.png Size: 123 KB
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  • #69,574
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:56pm Sep 10, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Looks like a potential future double top the way you drew it, but you cannot dismiss the yellow trend line I drew in there. With the absence of a lower high, that trend line has huge potential to spring board price to a new high. Just sayin' {image}

came back to clarify!

i was trying to illustrate a fibonacci ratio contraction on the three swing tops circled on the chart... (but i see that my chart was not too clear... will re-post trw)

...stacked with momentum divergences....

it may hold a clue
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,575
  • Sep 10, 2013 2:59pm Sep 10, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} came back to clarify! i was trying to illustrate a fibonacci ratio contraction on the three swing tops circled on the chart... (but i see that my chart was not too clear... will re-post trw) ...stacked with momentum divergences.... it may hold a clue
I'm a bit too tired now and wife is home so it's time for some lovin, but tomorrow I will post an EW count on this pair.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,576
  • Sep 10, 2013 3:02pm Sep 10, 2013 3:02pm
US JOLTS >>> http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm
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  • #69,577
  • Sep 10, 2013 5:40pm Sep 10, 2013 5:40pm
daily chart..triangle pattern breakout..
key is 3380 ... if R breakout ...uptrend continuation to 3460 and 36xx ....it is possible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #69,578
  • Edited 11:00pm Sep 10, 2013 10:25pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting chess king
daily chart..triangle pattern breakout.. key is 3380 ... if R breakout ...uptrend continuation to 3460 and 36xx ....it is possible.{image}

hi chess king,

nice one. I believe the triangle had all of us fooled, since the moment it broke out i suddenly saw what was there all along - a potential diagonal (or Bwave in WXY) as per the two options on the chart below.

It's also interesting that, despite massive printing, this chart has essentially been trading sideways after the May top. Take away the April moonrocket and the sideways has been in effect since January. The current wave up may achieve 139.x as a maximum expectation (162% of wave A). How far EJ goes down will become clearer when PA gets closer to label 4

edit: if this same dynamic is in force for UJ then the current wave C up in UJ most likely targets 102.30 where there is a confluence of monthly R2 and 162% of wave A. The compound divergence evident in both UJ and EJ charts show at least a minor correction to the uptrend is overdue.

http://ubuntuone.com/5kLfCR7bBtrgsrCZgO829q
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,579
  • Sep 11, 2013 1:50am Sep 11, 2013 1:50am
good morning

Euro Update

H4

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #69,580
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:07am Sep 11, 2013 2:07am
Quoting theDHT
good morning Euro Update H4 {image}
Yep... might give it another try though because I do not see any fundamental catalyst to drive it down yet. We need some news that takes the air out of the bubble.

Attached Image
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