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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You say in your post that you may be simplifying things. Well let's see if I can simplify it further. Not sure how long you have been following the market's reactions to general sentiment, but what we have here with the Yen is based on risk appetite and risk aversion. The BOJ has finally successfully followed the Fed and launched extraordinarily loose monetary policy and that has added to the global risk appetite. However, the BOJ's efforts will all be undone as soon as the Fed starts tightening or as soon as the market sees that the Fed...

PipTrapper, thanks for the 101 - i am not from a financial background nor do i have a good macro understanding. I learn from these forums and from reading as widely as i can.

I see the risk-off dynamic and its consequences. Equities off life-support and they're done. The subsequent flight to safety will also have a domino effect as the knee-jerk reaction into bonds backfires and then lack of bank liquidity on their deposits becomes evident.

In the case of the Yen and Japan, I think like this: Japan has been gliding without fuel for years now. The demise of it's electronics market has only been propped up by its vehicle exports. Whichever way you look at it, Japan is shadow of it's former glory and the heritage of theYen as an illustrious symbol of the glory years is over and with it the "safe-haven" status which the Singapore Dollar has now usurped. The trade currencies of Asia used to be Dollar and Yen. But when it comes to the pivotal moment of global economic collapse, I think the Yuan will replace it as this has been a transition that has been delayed by the old economy and status quo.

Hence the Yen will not enjoy the safe-haven flows of yesteryear although Yen repatriation should be considerable and may very well delay UsdJpy downside.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
{quote} Amazing, PT. glad to hear you're safe in the subsistence department. Nevermind subsistence - while some Goldbug is frittering his Golden Eagles away for a bag of beans each, you'll be popping olives and drinking ground water! DHT, please tell me you're not in the suburbs, dude...

dude, sadly, i am a city dweller (high rise building style)...

i know what they say about cities turning into concentration camps (the Armageddon guys)

so i have recently taken a keen interest in vertical farming (but mostly because I think its the way of the future)

growing my first batch of tomato's in my study...

(no i am not kidding!!!)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting venzen
{quote} boy, there's a lot i want to respond to in this asynchronous conversation, but let me start with this post. If EU lifts off from here its not because of anything inherent to the Euro and it's region. It could logically only be USD weakness that does that. If the USD goes down (in a diagonal wave 5) then UJ goes down too - BoJ cannot outprint a terminally declining USD. UJ down and EU up == EJ down. So i have no fear of UJ and EJ going to the moon - that's just some fuzzy logic... BoJ doen't want a weak Yen per se, they want a growing economy...

My reason for thinking that the Abenomics policy will eventually end in tears is very simple:

Japans current account surplus has been gradually diminishing; when current account is in a surplus, your sovereign bond yields dont matter so much, because you are self funding (to a large extent). Previously, JPY was a huge beneficiary as a safe haven currency because of exactly this dynamic (plus near zero interest rate), but it is slowly fading away.
Abenomics wants to stir economic growth via inflation targeting, this is counter intuitive because, economic growth would have an upside impact on the valuation of the currency, stacked ontop of a lower CA surplus (trending towards deficit) they would seek funding from foreign investors because local liquidity is limited. The downward spiral then comes from a stronger currency, due to yield, caused by strong economic growth, but the trap comes from the CA deficit (or implied deficit)... In other words, Japanese finmin and central bank cannot allow growth in any real terms if they want to pursue Abenomics/JPY devaluation...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} dude, sadly, i am a city dweller (high rise building style)... i know what they say about cities turning into concentration camps (the Armageddon guys) so i have recently taken a keen interest in vertical farming (but mostly because I think its the way of the future) growing my first batch of tomato's in my study... (no i am not kidding!!!)
...but where are you going to keep the chickens and the sheep?
Are you a vegetarian?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ...but where are you going to keep the chickens and the sheep? Are you a vegetarian?

still working on that one!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} still working on that one!
Well you could eat fish instead. Much healthier than chicken and lamb anyway.
Do you have access to the roof?

http://www.gizmag.com/globe-hedron-r...sh-farm/22492/
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting theDHT
{quote} still working on that one!

try a 12 bore - but with #8 shot or there will not be much left for the pot!
Trading Levels with WRBs
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well you could eat fish instead. Much healthier than chicken and lamb anyway. Do you have access to the roof? http://www.gizmag.com/globe-hedron-r...sh-farm/22492/

pool and gym is on the roof...

but i have a very large balcony... vertical farming + shrimp/fish (same technology)

the big issue becomes fresh water...

even if you have a system that recycles and runs on solar etc, it still needs a 30% fresh water injection every X number of days...
and some kind of power source as backup... else your efficiency is low

ahahah, cant believe we are discussing an end of world trade! LOL
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} pool and gym is on the roof... but i have a very large balcony... vertical farming + shrimp/fish (same technology) the big issue becomes fresh water... even if you have a system that recycles and runs on solar etc, it still needs a 30% fresh water injection every X number of days... and some kind of power source as backup... else your efficiency is low ahahah, cant believe we are discussing an end of world trade! LOL
haha. Yeah pretty silly, but like good boy scouts, we must be prepared

Okay I'm done here for the morning. Heading out to enjoy the sun and fresh air (while it still exists).
I'll be back for NY session.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Stupidy I missed getting long for that good UK employment data, so I've been scalping short ever since....

Edit: its now retraced > 50% of the spike, so I'm finished with that idea....
Trading Levels with WRBs
Hi....

Is it correct to SHORT now ?

Thank you for helping Nubee


EDIT : I'm Scalping for TP @ S1
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May the force with Arjun
Quoting Islander
Stupidy I missed getting long for that good UK employment data, so I've been scalping short ever since.... Edit: its now retraced > 50% of the spike, so I'm finished with that idea....
ive been holding a half size short for a couple of days...

was up 120 pips on the top, now around 90

cant say im convinced re the bull
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Brent:

Sucker Trade

H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} ive been holding a half size short for a couple of days... was up 120 pips on the top, now around 90 cant say im convinced re the bull
Nerve made of Titanium.....

Wondering when yuo will want to cash out ?

I'm following your footsteps...

Peace
May the force with Arjun
Quoting theDHT
{quote} pool and gym is on the roof... but i have a very large balcony... vertical farming + shrimp/fish (same technology) the big issue becomes fresh water... even if you have a system that recycles and runs on solar etc, it still needs a 30% fresh water injection every X number of days... and some kind of power source as backup... else your efficiency is low ahahah, cant believe we are discussing an end of world trade! LOL
If fresh water is an issue, come move to Vietnam.

We have Mekong river flooding during monsoon season. ( can be use as swimming pool too,)

Peace
May the force with Arjun
Quoting Lirbig Nubee
Hi.... Is it correct to SHORT now ? Thank you for helping Nubee EDIT : I'm Scalping for TP @ S1 {image}
Lirbig, if PA goes below 133.00, closes and opens there in M15 and then does the same closes and reopens below the Daily Pivot, then you may have a case for targeting S1. Zoom your chart out a bit so you get an idea of the bigger picture...

Also, you will benefit looking at MACD and RSI for clues. Have a look at babypips.com for help with those.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Lirbig Nubee
{quote} Nerve made of Titanium..... Wondering when yuo will want to cash out ? I'm following your footsteps... Peace
Adamantium...

not really though, as i said, its a half size position because at the time of entry, the risk was too high

for me a full size position is 0.5% risk to my portfolio in the event of a stop out...
some pairs/instruments are even smaller due to high volatility (example crude oil)

I will not be posting entries and exits in real time (all the time), so please trade on your own discretion!

good luck
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting Lirbig Nubee
{quote} If fresh water is an issue, come move to Vietnam. We have Mekong river flooding during monsoon season. ( can be use as swimming pool too,) Peace

I was in HCMC last year over Xmas break...

in the words of Luke Nguyen "my love for Vietnam runs deep"

man, i have NEVER seen that many motor cyclists packed into a single city block!!!!

was awesome
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting Lirbig Nubee
{quote} If fresh water is an issue, come move to Vietnam. We have Mekong river flooding during monsoon season. ( can be use as swimming pool too,) Peace

yep, Thailand in monsoon season too... i'm sitting here wiping condensation off my screen every few hours!

... and when the rain stops, hello mosquitos. Ayaa!
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I was in HCMC last year over Xmas break... in the words of Luke Nguyen "my love for Vietnam runs deep" man, i have NEVER seen that many motor cyclists packed into a single city block!!!! was awesome

hhehehe, same... try crossing the street in Ho Chi Mihn city - go on i dare ya!
cryptocurrency everytime
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