Trade the Dow/Dax

Dear traders,

Welcome to this thread, which has one purpose - to trade the Dow Jones and the Dax 30. Currently I am personally trading just the Dow during both the European and US trading sessions as the Dax has gone off the boil lately. Spreads on the Dow should be around 2-3 pips during the European session, and 1 pip during the US. If they are more than that, change your broker.

I will post a pre-session analysis before the London open whenever possible, and all followers are welcome to contribute provided posts are constructive and add to the overall quality of the thread. Live calls are encouraged provided they are supported by some rationale where possible, not necessarily at the time of calling the trade, but when time allows. This way we will all get a better insight into how each one of us is seeing the market, as well as the reasons for taking trades and exits.

One thing I would discourage is the excessive posting of charts. We all have our own charts and methodology, and viewing someone else's, especially when it is unclear what one is supposed to be looking at, is seldom helpful in my opinion. Screenshots to emphasize a point are fine, as long as they are clear, well marked, and coherent. which also goes for screenshots showing trade entries.

It is my hope that this thread becomes a place all serious traders can come to at any time for some quality input, to pool knowledge and learn from one another, and in so doing go some way towards making this long and arduous road we are all travelling as productive and painless as possible.

Amen.

I'll be on here from tomorrow morning. For now on the Dow, that 700 level is the one to break, but there is formidable resistance there it seems.

Just taken these screenshots from my other thread as they show where we are with the Dow currently. The Daily I posted last week, and with today's heavy 314 pip drop in the Dow, it looks like that may have been a correct call and that we could be in for some very heavy selling for the remainder of this week.

Check out the diversion on the daily chart, a very powerful warning sign that the price might be about to fall.

Morning!

I'm looking at my Dow charts, and it looks like we'll get something of a pullback before and if this pushes lower. Today's CP @ 480 is on top of the 5m 200sma/ema, so this could be a level it heads for and turns, if it gets there. The price though is below its H2 200ema, and the last candle was bearish which indicates a further leg down. I do think we are going down, just depends on whether there's an initial pullback, and to where it goes.

I haven't had time to look at the Dax charts yet, so if anyone wants to give their take on that this morning before the London open, feel free.

So a good pullback already on Dax, but it has hit its 30m 100sma, which for me should be a pretty strong R level, so we'll see what London does. It could easily continue north for sure, as there is plenty of room for higher highs on the bigger tfs, so we'll have to see.

Sorry for my absence, had to run out this morning.

Dow did indeed come off the Central Pivot area and has just stopped short of the 76.4% retrace from yesterday's low. This will be the test for whether it will go lower today, although currently the price is straddling the 61.8% which may also hold it where it is now. That said, the last H4 candle is a shooting star, which hints at more downside during the US session.

Good afternoon


The 26400 area is well defended at the moment (add 20 to the values in the chart).

Looks like it's on its way down to today's open, for a push up from there. Or maybe panic will push it lower. Time will tell.

One argument in favour of the above anticipation is that the S&P 500 has not yet broken its SMA400@1h, which should be good for a bounce unless the mood has completely turned.

If this 76.4% breaks, then a double bottom scenario is also a possibility today on Dow as I have some potential support on 347 ish.

Actually, I don't see any reason technically why they should buy this back up this afternoon. I reckon they may have thrown in the towel now. We will find out soon.

Buy the dips... Mania continues
Hit the 3H 200sma, and went up.

I did have some resistance at 450 though... I think it will ram through it though.

Indeed, but a technical breather needed first. 26550 likely target.

You're not wrong. Needed to buy right on the close of that 1m hammer candle off of the double bottom, that was the signal. I didn't. Too late now.

The 14.46 candle looked good to me...

Couldn't agree more...

Though CP looks like a strong R contender if it gets there if you look at H2.

That said however, no reason to stop there, so yes, 550 ish looks good.