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  • #1,161
  • Jun 1, 2017 8:08am Jun 1, 2017 8:08am
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,162
  • Jun 1, 2017 10:19am Jun 1, 2017 10:19am
Can you post the data for the last 2 trades ?

Quoting stain
any comment and correction will be appreciated {image}
This was totally incorrect ?
  • #1,163
  • Jun 1, 2017 1:18pm Jun 1, 2017 1:18pm
Quoting stain
Can you post the data for the last 2 trades ?
Are you not privy to the same exact data that I am?

Quoting stain
This was totally incorrect ?
Quoting stain
{quote} Based on the chart y have posted what stands out (to me !) is the predominance of the TPO belowe (sell pressure), an increasing volume with an increasing TFF (above the 2.40 on the 5-10-15 profiles [wich is an high value in a scale of 1 to 3]).
"the predominance of the TPO belowe (sell pressure)"
So, what does that even infer?
What does it tell you about the market?

"TFF (above the 2.40 on the 5-10-15 profiles"
So, what does that infer?
What does that say about the market?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,164
  • Jun 6, 2017 9:08am Jun 6, 2017 9:08am
usdjpy
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,165
  • Jun 6, 2017 11:02am Jun 6, 2017 11:02am
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,166
  • Edited 8:36am Jun 7, 2017 8:20am | Edited 8:36am
Back from holidays! Thank you Mzvega for showing the planning in your great trade. I like your adding on the pullback in AUDUSD trade.

@stain Hey Stain, TPO counting. You have to know when and how to use. Do you use TPO count in balance or trend? And what does it mean? What does it tell you about your competition? TPO counting can help you answering one of the 2 big questions (where is the market going? and how good is it at this job?).
For more information look it up in Daltons great books (it does not take you much time). TPO Counting is extremely important for analysis in every type of trade (daytrading and swing trading). If you already know that and you have problems of understanding, then show a example (screenshot).

And: You should not use tick volume. Tick vol is the number of trades take place, not the contract. So for example, tick vol can be very high, but "real" contract vol can be very low. If you use it, be aware of underlying liquidity of the market. TPO is more important.

greetings
C
  • #1,167
  • Jun 7, 2017 1:03pm Jun 7, 2017 1:03pm
Quoting dljonesFan
Back from holidays!
Great to see your post.....
I hope you enjoyed the holidays!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,168
  • Edited 6:52pm Jun 12, 2017 2:18pm | Edited 6:52pm
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,169
  • Edited 5:29am Jun 13, 2017 5:07am | Edited 5:29am
Hey Mzvega how are you?

Yes my holidays where good, enjoyed them, thank you for asking.

I like your USDCAD trade, because I traded it too, but got my stop too tight It was a huge op and the data was sup it. Because of monday trading, I was a little bit scared getting chopped, so I decided to take my stop tight, take the loss and wait for the break today. But the op was gone. Next will come soon.

I have a question. Do you know any serious trader who mastered the intraday pause alert method (by Jones)?

greetings
C
  • #1,170
  • Jun 14, 2017 12:16am Jun 14, 2017 12:16am
Quoting dljonesFan
Hey Mzvega how are you? Yes my holidays where good, enjoyed them, thank you for asking. I like your USDCAD trade, because I traded it too, but got my stop too tight It was a huge op and the data was sup it. Because of monday trading, I was a little bit scared getting chopped, so I decided to take my stop tight, take the loss and wait for the break today. But the op was gone. Next will come soon. I have a question. Do you know any serious trader who mastered the intraday pause alert method (by Jones)? greetings C
I'm doing great, and keeping busy......
I'd like to think that everyone uses "Pause Alert" as a timing tool rather than a "method". How one uses pause alerts depends on their strategy. I use it for timing entries and exits and limiting risk.

IMO, Evak is the only person that I am aware of that has a superior working knowledge of "pause alerts".

If you go to Evak's profile and search his posts for the word "pause", you should find many examples.
You might also search the images he's posted in both this thread & the MP profile thread. You will see he has a long history of using "pause alerts" for timing his trades……….
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,171
  • Edited 7:11am Jun 14, 2017 1:48am | Edited 7:11am
Quoting mzvega
{quote} I'm doing great, and keeping busy...... I'd like to think that everyone uses "Pause Alert" as a timing tool rather than a "method". How one uses pause alerts depends on their strategy. I use it for timing entries and exits and limiting risk. IMO, Evak is the only person that I am aware of that has a superior working knowledge of "pause alerts". If you go to Evak's profile and search his posts for the word "pause", you should find many examples. You might also search the images he's posted in both this thread & the MP profile thread. You...
Hi Mzvega, thank you for your response.

"I use it for timing entries and exits and limiting risk." Yes, I do that too. I used it on monday trade USDCAD. I used a combination of 15min and 30min TF pause, then the price breaks the 30min pause to the upside after a test of the longer time frame balance limit. I traded the break to the MID to get a part of my money back. It rotates a last time to the upper limit and after that it breaks hard to the downside (wich I missed).

Wich TF pause do you use for your trading? That would be interesting.

Evak - yes that was the only trader I was thinking of too. But he seems to be busy and I dont want to get on his nerves.
My intention was to get different exp about that methodology/ timing tool.

greetings
C
  • #1,172
  • Jun 14, 2017 8:58am Jun 14, 2017 8:58am
Quoting dljonesFan
{quote} Wich TF pause do you use for your trading? That would be interesting.
5,10,15,20 day and 30 min
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,173
  • Jun 14, 2017 4:53pm Jun 14, 2017 4:53pm
I have read here that rising TFF means more activity than yesterday (for purposes of activity reference points for daily net flow), but I am unclear why that is the case. I have read up on what TFF implies (primarily from vbpt, cisco references, and The Trade Facilitation Factor by Jones), and my take-away was that higher TFF often means a narrower, bracketing, more congesting trading range typically with rotation, whereas a lower TFF means a market moving to trend. Jones: "cardinal rule for traders ... is to avoid markets that are not 'facilitating' trade. Over a period of days, such markets are characterized by decreasing volume, a narrowing of the trading range and an increasing number of Time-Price Opportunities (TPOs) per tick." "The high ratios are caused by the fattening of the profiles during periods of low trade facilitation." I thus thought dropping TFF implied more "activity" for purposes of activity reference points. Confused; why is this not the case? Thank you!
  • #1,174
  • Jun 14, 2017 5:43pm Jun 14, 2017 5:43pm
Quoting nonlinear
I have read here that rising TFF means more activity than yesterday (for purposes of activity reference points for daily net flow), but I am unclear why that is the case.
Can you show me where you read that?
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #1,175
  • Edited Jun 15, 2017 7:54am Jun 14, 2017 7:26pm | Edited Jun 15, 2017 7:54am
Primarily posts 569-574, along with some observations of activity reference point tallies throughout the thread (apparently assigning +1 to rising tff. My gut says assign -1 to rising tff). Comments like this, for example: "So in the short TF (daily profile) a greater TFF means price was facilitating two-way trade. That tells us what? That the short tf participants are happy, 'active' and in control." Many thanks for your thoughts on this. Please excuse me if I made blunder; this a complete retooling of my view on price action, well auction action really as I view it now.
  • #1,176
  • Edited Jun 15, 2017 12:47am Jun 14, 2017 11:23pm | Edited Jun 15, 2017 12:47am
I know what you mean. In simple words: Jones states that a high TFF implies high breakout probability, because the market is unstable, lack of confidence and no long time frame participation (they extend the range). The long time frame traders dont trade directly with each other. They trade with the short time traders (thats also a very important concept in terms of understanding TPO counting, look it up in Daltons MoM).
So for a breakout strategy it would be logical to be ready -->before<-- the break (act +1). Markets are constantly changing. Next the TFF will change -> fall and maybee the balance breaks. A low TFF implies strong trend, so do you want to trade a strong trend or a balance break? Dont break your head about that act +1. Its more important to know what the refs mean.

I hope that helps, greetings
C

PS: Dont rely only on the TFF.
  • #1,177
  • Edited 11:03am Jun 15, 2017 7:29am | Edited 11:03am
Hey there, thanks for the comments. I only rely on tff in my net flow review, so it is a small factor overall, but I currently plan on assigning rising tff -1. Also, I am unclear on how ciscso did this as well as the old charts seem to just show tff facilitating (being greater), which doesn't necessarily mean the actual tff is rising, just that it is facilitating (could mean a falling tff or even a tff below a threshold - I dunno). And in my net flow, I am trying to not use a total a number; instead, using up, down, or neutral for the day, so again tff has little weight overall among the directional and activity references. Just my initial view thus far, which very well could change after watching these numbers under live circumstances.
  • #1,178
  • Edited Jun 16, 2017 1:05am Jun 15, 2017 11:39pm | Edited Jun 16, 2017 1:05am
Quoting nonlinear
Hey there, thanks for the comments. I only rely on tff in my net flow review, so it is a small factor overall, but I currently plan on assigning rising tff -1. Also, I am unclear on how ciscso did this as well as the old charts seem to just show tff facilitating (being greater), which doesn't necessarily mean the actual tff is rising, just that it is facilitating (could mean a falling tff or even a tff below a threshold - I dunno). And in my net flow, I am trying to not use a total a number; instead, using up, down, or neutral for the day, so again...
Hey NL,

"I am unclear on how ciscso did this as well as the old charts seem to just show tff facilitating (being greater), which doesn't necessarily mean the actual tff is rising, just that it is facilitating (could mean a falling tff or even a tff below a threshold - I dunno)."

I hope I understood you here correctly. TFF is a rating tool. So there are averaged high and averaged low numbers. So a rising tff dont necessary mean "no facilitation".

"Just my initial view thus far, which very well could change after watching these numbers under live circumstances."

Thats a good idea. You also can check the historical data by exporting and going back with the comp indi on the chart screen (day shifting). I start to understand the whole stuff by studying the articles, exported data and checking the charts at the ->same<- time. That made it easier for me to grasp the whole concept and the different refs. There is a lot of information to learn and understand. For me it worked that way.

greetings
C
  • #1,179
  • Jun 17, 2017 2:53am Jun 17, 2017 2:53am
Quoting dljonesFan
I know what you mean. In simple words: Jones states that a high TFF implies high breakout probability, because the market is unstable, lack of confidence and no long time frame participation (they extend the range). The long time frame traders dont trade directly with each other. They trade with the short time traders (thats also a very important concept in terms of understanding TPO counting, look it up in Daltons MoM). So for a breakout strategy it would be logical to be ready -->before<-- the break (act +1). Markets are constantly changing. Next...
Yes, don't rely only on TFF but I think that's useful to filter "something" in the database.

I'm filtering potential BO using the TFF 90d average + 1 SD (as Jones explain) and use the value as a limit.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150118...GES_TABLE.HTML

If the current TFF is bigger of resulting value and we are in balance maybe a BO is possible.
Every timeframe and every pair has its own "typical" limit: actually the 1Day "overlay" EURUSD TFF limit is about 9, the 20Day overlay limit is 1.90 ( TFF value depends on the resolution too, this values are calculated for price step = 1 pip ).
Note that a 20D overlay TFF average is different from a 20 Day "1Day" TFF average.
Note too that values are different if you average all kind of distributions, or bracketing dists only, or non-bracketing dists only.

Then I look at the other conditions and flow (TFF incr/decr, Volatility incr/decr ... ecc) to find confirmation for a possible BO.

More consideration on this :
Jones says:
If the current TFF is greater than 90 day average plus 90 day 68% Dev then:
a) in a bracket, it is an alert to a breakout
b) in a trend, it is an alert to trend pause/end

Well... the a) point sounds right, but in my opinion increasing values of TFF day after day ( +1 in the flow) leads to a greater compression and so there are more chances that a BO happens when TFF constantly increase, not when a TFF drops.

The b) point is tricky ... if I'm searching limit values where the trend ends I think I'll find those values when trendlimit = TFF 90d average - 1 SD, so subtracting and not summing the 1 SD, the left limit of the TFF distribution.
But on this point I needs more research, anyway I'm currently filtering this value every day and look what happens at the end of the trading day.

Waiting for your comments.
  • #1,180
  • Edited 7:18am Jun 17, 2017 3:14am | Edited 7:18am
Quoting dljonesFan
The "flow down" makes no sense to me. More active markets lead to breakouts in brackets. Low activity in brackets tend to continue with the congestion. (www.cisco-futures.com/TVA_PROFILE_GAME_SAMPLE2) A market with direction down and rising activity in a bracket tells me that the break could occur at the LL. A market with direction down and falling activity tells me that the congestion will continue. Here is an example: 29.12.2015-4.1.2015 29.12.2015. trend was up, dir: 5;...
Quoting nonlinear
Hey there, thanks for the comments. I only rely on tff in my net flow review, so it is a small factor overall, but I currently plan on assigning rising tff -1. Also, I am unclear on how ciscso did this as well as the old charts seem to just show tff facilitating (being greater), which doesn't necessarily mean the actual tff is rising, just that it is facilitating (could mean a falling tff or even a tff below a threshold - I dunno). And in my net flow, I am trying to not use a total a number; instead, using up, down, or neutral for the day,...

Reading these posts and having exchanged with other nick, that writes in this thread, via private message some interesting considerations months ago about the "flow" i think we need deeper discussion on this argument.
Things are not clear. The result of the calculation of the NET value (Direction + Activity) is asymmetrical for ascending vs descending markets. And it's not possible.
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