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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs 1,920 replies

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Attachments: Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading
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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

Quoting Shantala
{quote} Clueless! {image}
Hehe - at least you had a go.

The first question I'm asking myself while watching these charts is, What is the current "direction"? If I can't answer that question, I don't trade.

The "teaching" aspect of SR/SD has far too often bamboozled traders by overlooking this question. Instead it often seems to encourage people to just try and spot patterns, which unfortunately for traders is very easy to do. It's a problem because decent looking patterns occur all over the charts but far too often they don't have any context to them, i.e. they're not being considered in the context of market direction, which in itself is a form of technical analysis. Trading a pattern out of context can lead to losses very quickly.

Before anything, my priority is to judge direction. In its simplest form, direction can be read by price breaking areas of support/resistance/supply/demand. If price breaks south of a bullish swing point for example, then I can bias my thinking towards shorts. In that case I'd be looking to sell the tops of any retrace rallies at an opportune location - either on touch or with PA. With that in mind does the chart look any different?

Edit: perhaps the prior chart was confusing. How about drawing it like this...

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Quoting simond2002
{quote} Hehe - at least you had a go. The first question I'm asking myself while watching these charts is, What is the current "direction"? If I can't answer that question, I don't trade. The "teaching" aspect of SR/SD has far too often bamboozled traders by overlooking this question. Instead it often seems to encourage people to just try and spot patterns, which unfortunately for traders is very easy to do. It's a problem because decent looking patterns occur all over the charts but far too often they don't have any context to them, i.e. they're...
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Nice post. Thank you

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Good to see some clear charts flowing in. I'd agree with Avail, and for me the top of the middle down arrow is where the cleanest trading opportunity arose, i.e. selling the top of a rally after direction (down) was established.

I have one more question from the original post, which can lead to some important considerations; anyone care to take a guess at the TF of the chart?
Less than m1, Cant see it on my charts.
Have a feeling that this is a trick question, Hope you'll give the answer
No idea about TF. It can be 1M or M1.
Definitely not a trick question. But an important final point.

The origin of the move that set up prevailing direction leaves in its wake a supply zone. The test of that supply zone is the trade, either touch or with PA on reaction. Personally I always trade the latter. Regardless of entry, we can see that when the market tested the supply zone it left in its wake a swing point.

If people were to look at this chart with the knowledge that it's a H4 TF then there's many of them that would comment that this is an example of a nice "swing" trade. They'd base their assumption on one thing and one thing only - the amount of time that the trade ran. I know this to be true because of no end of conversation with people over the years on this very matter. What then if I were to reveal that this chart is actually a M1 (yesterday's GBPJPY)? Moreover what if I were to say that "swing" trading has nothing at all to do with TF and everything to do with market structure?

I'll leave it there, hopefully it's food for thought. Suffice to say, as I move forward in my own trading, I consider myself, in every respect and regardless of the TF, a swing trader.

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EURUSD H1

There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour.
No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did.

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Quoting maximumguita
{quote} 0.6683 is my target. lets pray :-)
It'd be nice. Will get on M1 charts now and see if anything gives..
Quoting simond2002
EURUSD H1 There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour. No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did. {image}
I'm actually short on this pair.
I think price will move down to the green line. There are SLs there from daily trades. We will see. I hope it does as Im in lol
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Quoting JAKammus
{quote} I'm actually short on this pair. I think price will move down to the green line. There are SLs there from daily trades. We will see. I hope it does as Im in lol {image}
Hehe, it's never nice when one's long and the other's short...
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Hehe, it's never nice when one's long and the other's short...
Yep. I know the feeling. You start doubting yourself sometimes. Are you long though, or is just a thought?
Quoting simond2002
EURUSD H1 There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour. No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did. {image}
Had a couple of goes at this. Just been stopped at B/E.

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Why do you think it will go up though? I just revised the chart and I think even if it decides to go up it will probably retrace back to the red line, which coincides with 62% fib.

The reason I went short is because there is a divergence between the dollar index and the pair. If you see, the Eur move beyond the point it should just to reach an area of demand.

BTW, do you mind if I post here? I read all your thread before and I loved it. Keep it simple, without complicated terminology. Unfortunately, by the time I finished reading it you had stopped posting. I'm glad you came back though.
I love that you share your ideas before it happen. Even if you are wrong, it gives us an opportunity to learn. I get upset when people post their trades after the fact. It seems more like an ego thing than actually helping other traders. I was barely breaking even to be honest, although, I've been doing ok the past 2 months.
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Quoting simond2002
{quote} Had a couple of goes at this. Just been stopped at B/E. {image}
Oh, so you are scalping. So that ok. I'm thinking my short can take a day or two.
Took one more buy, which was also stopped at b/e. Additional entry on chart.

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Quoting JAKammus
{quote} Oh, so you are scalping. So that ok. I'm thinking my short can take a day or two.
Definitely not scalping. Swing trading.
Quoting JAKammus
Why do you think it will go up though?
Sorry, only just saw this post. Yea, please do post in here.
Rationale for thinking long was in this post. Once the hourly had broke north and was pulling back, I was looking at M1 to try and trade long into a bullish PA with the anticipation that price might want higher.
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Sorry, only just saw this post. Yea, please do post in here. Rationale for thinking long was in this post. Once the hourly had broke north and was pulling back, I was looking at M1 to try and trade long into a bullish PA with the anticipation that price might want higher.
I saw that as a false break. You might actually be correct. Price is going up right now. I moved my SL because I just realized Yellen is speaking. Fed as usual screwing things up lol
Quoting JAKammus
{quote} I saw that as a false break. You might actually be correct. Price is going up right now. I moved my SL because I just realized Yellen is speaking. Fed as usual screwing things up lol
Lol, yes, it looks like the chattering has begun
How cant you trust this cutie pie
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