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Attachments: Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading
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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

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  • Post #1,221
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  • Edited at 5:45am Mar 1, 2017 5:19am | Edited at 5:45am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting Shantala
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{quote} Clueless! {image}
Ignored
Hehe - at least you had a go.

The first question I'm asking myself while watching these charts is, What is the current "direction"? If I can't answer that question, I don't trade.

The "teaching" aspect of SR/SD has far too often bamboozled traders by overlooking this question. Instead it often seems to encourage people to just try and spot patterns, which unfortunately for traders is very easy to do. It's a problem because decent looking patterns occur all over the charts but far too often they don't have any context to them, i.e. they're not being considered in the context of market direction, which in itself is a form of technical analysis. Trading a pattern out of context can lead to losses very quickly.

Before anything, my priority is to judge direction. In its simplest form, direction can be read by price breaking areas of support/resistance/supply/demand. If price breaks south of a bullish swing point for example, then I can bias my thinking towards shorts. In that case I'd be looking to sell the tops of any retrace rallies at an opportune location - either on touch or with PA. With that in mind does the chart look any different?

Edit: perhaps the prior chart was confusing. How about drawing it like this...

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  • Post #1,222
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  • Mar 1, 2017 7:44am Mar 1, 2017 7:44am
  •  Avail
  • | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Hehe - at least you had a go. The first question I'm asking myself while watching these charts is, What is the current "direction"? If I can't answer that question, I don't trade. The "teaching" aspect of SR/SD has far too often bamboozled traders by overlooking this question. Instead it often seems to encourage people to just try and spot patterns, which unfortunately for traders is very easy to do. It's a problem because decent looking patterns occur all over the charts but far too often they don't have any context to them, i.e. they're...
Ignored
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Nice post. Thank you

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  • Post #1,223
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  • Mar 1, 2017 8:34am Mar 1, 2017 8:34am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Good to see some clear charts flowing in. I'd agree with Avail, and for me the top of the middle down arrow is where the cleanest trading opportunity arose, i.e. selling the top of a rally after direction (down) was established.

I have one more question from the original post, which can lead to some important considerations; anyone care to take a guess at the TF of the chart?
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  • Post #1,224
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  • Mar 1, 2017 9:34am Mar 1, 2017 9:34am
  •  Avail
  • | Joined Nov 2016 | Status: Member | 151 Posts
Less than m1, Cant see it on my charts.
Have a feeling that this is a trick question, Hope you'll give the answer
  • Post #1,225
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  • Mar 1, 2017 9:35am Mar 1, 2017 9:35am
  •  Shantala
  • Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Reading the market | 194 Posts
No idea about TF. It can be 1M or M1.
  • Post #1,226
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  • Mar 1, 2017 10:09am Mar 1, 2017 10:09am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Definitely not a trick question. But an important final point.

The origin of the move that set up prevailing direction leaves in its wake a supply zone. The test of that supply zone is the trade, either touch or with PA on reaction. Personally I always trade the latter. Regardless of entry, we can see that when the market tested the supply zone it left in its wake a swing point.

If people were to look at this chart with the knowledge that it's a H4 TF then there's many of them that would comment that this is an example of a nice "swing" trade. They'd base their assumption on one thing and one thing only - the amount of time that the trade ran. I know this to be true because of no end of conversation with people over the years on this very matter. What then if I were to reveal that this chart is actually a M1 (yesterday's GBPJPY)? Moreover what if I were to say that "swing" trading has nothing at all to do with TF and everything to do with market structure?

I'll leave it there, hopefully it's food for thought. Suffice to say, as I move forward in my own trading, I consider myself, in every respect and regardless of the TF, a swing trader.

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  • Post #1,227
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  • Mar 3, 2017 11:48am Mar 3, 2017 11:48am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
EURUSD H1

There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour.
No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did.

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  • Post #1,228
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  • Mar 3, 2017 12:00pm Mar 3, 2017 12:00pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting maximumguita
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{quote} 0.6683 is my target. lets pray :-)
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It'd be nice. Will get on M1 charts now and see if anything gives..
  • Post #1,229
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  • Mar 3, 2017 12:44pm Mar 3, 2017 12:44pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
Quoting simond2002
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EURUSD H1 There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour. No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did. {image}
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I'm actually short on this pair.
I think price will move down to the green line. There are SLs there from daily trades. We will see. I hope it does as Im in lol
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  • Post #1,230
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  • Mar 3, 2017 12:45pm Mar 3, 2017 12:45pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting JAKammus
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{quote} I'm actually short on this pair. I think price will move down to the green line. There are SLs there from daily trades. We will see. I hope it does as Im in lol {image}
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Hehe, it's never nice when one's long and the other's short...
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  • Post #1,231
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  • Mar 3, 2017 12:47pm Mar 3, 2017 12:47pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
Quoting simond2002
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{quote} Hehe, it's never nice when one's long and the other's short...
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Yep. I know the feeling. You start doubting yourself sometimes. Are you long though, or is just a thought?
  • Post #1,232
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  • Mar 3, 2017 12:49pm Mar 3, 2017 12:49pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting simond2002
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EURUSD H1 There's about 10 minutes left on this candle. Got to wonder whether or not this pair will make a banzai move up over the next hour. No prob if it doesn't. Be nice if it did. {image}
Ignored
Had a couple of goes at this. Just been stopped at B/E.

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  • Post #1,233
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:00pm Mar 3, 2017 1:00pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
Why do you think it will go up though? I just revised the chart and I think even if it decides to go up it will probably retrace back to the red line, which coincides with 62% fib.

The reason I went short is because there is a divergence between the dollar index and the pair. If you see, the Eur move beyond the point it should just to reach an area of demand.

BTW, do you mind if I post here? I read all your thread before and I loved it. Keep it simple, without complicated terminology. Unfortunately, by the time I finished reading it you had stopped posting. I'm glad you came back though.
I love that you share your ideas before it happen. Even if you are wrong, it gives us an opportunity to learn. I get upset when people post their trades after the fact. It seems more like an ego thing than actually helping other traders. I was barely breaking even to be honest, although, I've been doing ok the past 2 months.
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  • Post #1,234
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:01pm Mar 3, 2017 1:01pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Had a couple of goes at this. Just been stopped at B/E. {image}
Ignored
Oh, so you are scalping. So that ok. I'm thinking my short can take a day or two.
  • Post #1,235
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:05pm Mar 3, 2017 1:05pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Took one more buy, which was also stopped at b/e. Additional entry on chart.

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  • Post #1,236
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:06pm Mar 3, 2017 1:06pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting JAKammus
Disliked
{quote} Oh, so you are scalping. So that ok. I'm thinking my short can take a day or two.
Ignored
Definitely not scalping. Swing trading.
  • Post #1,237
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:09pm Mar 3, 2017 1:09pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting JAKammus
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Why do you think it will go up though?
Ignored
Sorry, only just saw this post. Yea, please do post in here.
Rationale for thinking long was in this post. Once the hourly had broke north and was pulling back, I was looking at M1 to try and trade long into a bullish PA with the anticipation that price might want higher.
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  • Post #1,238
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:14pm Mar 3, 2017 1:14pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Sorry, only just saw this post. Yea, please do post in here. Rationale for thinking long was in this post. Once the hourly had broke north and was pulling back, I was looking at M1 to try and trade long into a bullish PA with the anticipation that price might want higher.
Ignored
I saw that as a false break. You might actually be correct. Price is going up right now. I moved my SL because I just realized Yellen is speaking. Fed as usual screwing things up lol
  • Post #1,239
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:15pm Mar 3, 2017 1:15pm
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,937 Posts
Quoting JAKammus
Disliked
{quote} I saw that as a false break. You might actually be correct. Price is going up right now. I moved my SL because I just realized Yellen is speaking. Fed as usual screwing things up lol
Ignored
Lol, yes, it looks like the chattering has begun
  • Post #1,240
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  • Mar 3, 2017 1:22pm Mar 3, 2017 1:22pm
  •  JAKammus
  • | Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Member | 168 Posts
How cant you trust this cutie pie
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