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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

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  • Post #1,261
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  • May 10, 2017 4:21am May 10, 2017 4:21am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
GBPJPY M15

Price has printed M15 supply. Daily is still not breached at 148.458. Not interested in buying. Will see how/if price retests the fresh supply for potential selling.

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  • Post #1,262
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  • May 10, 2017 4:39am May 10, 2017 4:39am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
Just been going through some old posts/charts. Happened upon this USDCAD one. Current situation is looking quite interesting. On Weekly, price is tapping a nice confluence: {image} H4 gets quite interesting. Market has made fresh supply, and if price continues up this channel to retest it with a nice bearish PA, the sell-off (if it comes) could be a monster. Will keep an eye on this pair on H4 TF. {image}
Ignored
Some follow on, USDCAD

Price has dropped overnight and is currently sat at support, which equates to this channel. If price were to test the H4 supply it would need to rally up from here for about 60-70 pips. I'm not interested in trading this long on LTFs but it can be useful to watch on M5/M1 to see if (and how) a set up manifests.

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  • Post #1,263
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  • Edited 5:18am May 10, 2017 5:07am | Edited 5:18am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Some follow on, USDCAD Price has dropped overnight and is currently sat at support, which equates to this channel. If price were to test the H4 supply it would need to rally up from here for about 60-70 pips. I'm not interested in trading this long on LTFs but it can be useful to watch on M5/M1 to see if (and how) a set up manifests. {image}
Ignored
Changed my mind. Taken a speculative long on USDCAD with the stop just below the flag. Main reason was EURUSD tanking with little chance of an immediate retrace to sell.

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  • Post #1,264
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  • May 10, 2017 7:19am May 10, 2017 7:19am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Changed my mind. Taken a speculative long on USDCAD with the stop just below the flag. Main reason was EURUSD tanking with little chance of an immediate retrace to sell. {image}
Ignored
Moved the stop to B/E. If price doesn't push out of this flag there doesn't seem much reason to hold.

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  • Post #1,265
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  • May 10, 2017 8:01am May 10, 2017 8:01am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Moved the stop to B/E. If price doesn't push out of this flag there doesn't seem much reason to hold. {image}
Ignored
Out

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  • Post #1,266
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  • May 10, 2017 8:06am May 10, 2017 8:06am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Out {image}
Ignored
Must have been my short position that took you out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...USD-CAD-Short/

Kidding. Excellent management
 
 
  • Post #1,267
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 8:14am May 10, 2017 8:14am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} Must have been my short position that took you out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...USD-CAD-Short/ Kidding. Excellent management
Ignored
Haha - nicely done
 
 
  • Post #1,268
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 8:20am May 10, 2017 8:20am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} Must have been my short position that took you out https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...USD-CAD-Short/ Kidding. Excellent management
Ignored
Watching this level on EURUSD M5

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  • Post #1,269
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 8:28am May 10, 2017 8:28am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Watching this level on EURUSD M5 {image}
Ignored
Have not been following EU for few days but missed AU for less than a pip
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  • Post #1,270
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  • May 10, 2017 8:32am May 10, 2017 8:32am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Out {image}
Ignored
UC out for a 1:6 stress free RR
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  • Post #1,271
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  • May 10, 2017 8:42am May 10, 2017 8:42am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} UC out for a 1:6 stress free RR {image}
Ignored
Is that USDCAD tick chart?
 
 
  • Post #1,272
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 8:55am May 10, 2017 8:55am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Is that USDCAD tick chart?
Ignored
This one above is 1m chart but I use 30 tick chart mainly.Lot of noise but important levels are easier to see there, sometimes I go down to 10 tick charts for more details.The reason for the aud/usd drop 1h ago can be see only in 10 tick chart.

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Regarding your EU level,this is my view
5m
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1m
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1
  • Post #1,273
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 9:04am May 10, 2017 9:04am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} This one above is 1m chart but I use 30 tick chart mainly.Lot of noise but important levels are easier to see there, sometimes I go down to 10 tick charts for more details.The reason for the aud/usd drop 1h ago can be see only in 10 tick chart. {image} {image} {image} Regarding your EU level,this is my view 5m {image} 1m {image}
Ignored
Nice analysis.

I took a look at tick charts but to be honest they were giving me eye strain. M5 seems to be a happy medium my side.
 
 
  • Post #1,274
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 9:08am May 10, 2017 9:08am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Nice analysis. I took a look at tick charts but to be honest they were giving me eye strain. M5 seems to be a happy medium my side.
Ignored
it is true.Without 2 cups of coffee and 10h relaxed sleep tick charts shouldn't be used

Btw, I see a potential short on NU (1m chart)

Here is my PO (without confirmation)
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let's see what will happen
 
 
  • Post #1,275
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 9:26am May 10, 2017 9:26am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} it is true.Without 2 cups of coffee and 10h relaxed sleep tick charts shouldn't be used
Ignored
Definitely. Gotta wonder if Marty was trading tick charts before acting

Attached Image


One possible scenario now USDCAD has inverted M5 price. Will watch PA at the 1.3698 supply zone:

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1
  • Post #1,276
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 9:36am May 10, 2017 9:36am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Definitely. Gotta wonder if Marty was trading tick charts before acting {image} One possible scenario now USDCAD has inverted M5 price. Will watch PA at the 1.3698 supply zone: {image}
Ignored
There are my areas of interest for longs
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For the lower zone,go to 1h to see why.
 
1
  • Post #1,277
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 9:56am May 10, 2017 9:56am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Definitely. Gotta wonder if Marty was trading tick charts before acting {image} One possible scenario now USDCAD has inverted M5 price. Will watch PA at the 1.3698 supply zone: {image}
Ignored
The M5 supply is now engulfed north with a fresh M5 demand in its wake. Steady as she goes...

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Name: USDCADM5.png
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  • Post #1,278
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 10:27am May 10, 2017 10:27am
  •  timos
  • Joined Sep 2012 | Status: Member | 1,056 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} The M5 supply is now engulfed north with a fresh M5 demand in its wake. Steady as she goes... {image}
Ignored
GL
for me all near htf have been tested once/consumed.

I try to stay with fresh levels only and for longs the best one in my eyes is around 1.3615 level
 
 
  • Post #1,279
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 10:38am May 10, 2017 10:38am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting timos
Disliked
{quote} GL for me all near htf have been tested once/consumed. I try to stay with fresh levels only and for longs the best one in my eyes is around 1.3615 level
Ignored
Yea, I'm going to stop monitoring USDCAD for today. It's all over the show.
 
 
  • Post #1,280
  • Quote
  • May 10, 2017 10:46am May 10, 2017 10:46am
  •  simond2002
  • Joined May 2012 | Status: ... | 1,939 Posts
Quoting simond2002
Disliked
{quote} Watching this level on EURUSD M5 {image}
Ignored
Price failed to retrace. Bit nuanced but my rationale for 2 x positions short is based on price making a kind of H/S (entry on perceived right shoulder).
Both at B/E now so it's up to the market. Twitchy day.

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