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Attachments: Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading
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Price Will Tell - Supply/Demand Price Action Trading

EURGBP H1

H1 alert has just hit.

Can be a potential turning point here. It all depends on how price now reacts at this level as to whether or not a larger shorting move sets up.

Key issue for me is that the market is printing HLs and that must be factored in. If price shoots up through this zone then I'll reassess over the next few days. Only really interested to take decent H1 setups on this pair.

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So, I want to throw this question out..

EURUSDM15 created a nice demand zone at the blue box. Obviously, it'd be nice to look for a buy setup there, if as and when price retests. The question is perhaps more obvious, given that price would need to drop in order to test that demand zone, would you consider selling it?

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Agreed, that price will have to fall there....
But, will it ?

So, why not wait for price to come to demand area and trade with the trend. Have the force behind you.

Quoting Amanfx
Agreed, that price will have to fall there.... But, will it ? So, why not wait for price to come to demand area and trade with the trend. Have the force behind you.
I agree. But what if we look at say, the M5 chart? This morning's "with trend" trade was really nice - level, little pullback then up and on its way. But just staying with M5, at what point would we say that the M5 "trend" has changed, i.e. beginning to go down? Imagine that bullish setup but now in reverse? If we shorted that wouldn't we be taking a M5 trade "with" trend (arguably at the beginning of that trend) with a clear higher TF (M15) target?

P.S. - I'm not trying to encourage random contra-trend trading, far from it. Just constantly trying to evolve my own process in terms of seeing the market only as buyers and sellers.

P.P.S - that SR at 1.08043 is key for me on H1.

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Quoting simond2002
So, I want to throw this question out.. EURUSDM15 created a nice demand zone at the blue box. Obviously, it'd be nice to look for a buy setup there, if as and when price retests. The question is perhaps more obvious, given that price would need to drop in order to test that demand zone, would you consider selling it? EURUSDM15.png;2169332 {image}
Took a couple of trades in here that were both stopped at b/e because I moved the stop very quickly on the basis that this kind of trading - kind of scalping - although not alien to me, is very different to how I've been working in the past.

Often it's said to just trade one type of setup and wait for it to occur. But the problem with that kind of mindset for me is that the particular type of setups (like this morning's buy) that I would take every time don't occur that often, even on lower TFs. Going forward I want to be taking more trades and therefore need to discover different ways of working in the market. At the end of the day though the underlying principle remains the same - SR gives direction, PA gives entry.

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Quoting simond2002
{quote} I agree. But what if we look at say, the M5 chart? This morning's "with trend" trade was really nice - level, little pullback then up and on its way. But just staying with M5, at what point would we say that the M5 "trend" has changed, i.e. beginning to go down? Imagine that bullish setup but now in reverse? If we shorted that wouldn't we be taking a M5 trade "with" trend (arguably at the beginning of that trend) with a clear higher TF (M15) target? P.S. - I'm not trying to encourage random contra-trend trading, far from it. Just constantly...

I agree with you on the whole "Trend" thing in different TF.
Just saying that probability of Target being hit when sticking with Bigger TF trend is much higher.... Less Break Even trades and less losers.

After all, just a few trades in a whole month are enough. Just need some patience.

Those commissions add up pretty quick.
Quoting Amanfx
{quote} I agree with you on the whole "Trend" thing in different TF. Just saying that probability of Target being hit when sticking with Bigger TF trend is much higher.... Less Break Even trades and less losers. After all, just a few trades in a whole month are enough. Just need some patience. Those commissions add up pretty quick.
You're right. The patience thing for me is definitely an issue at this point too. Not that I'm over-trading, just looking for opportunities that like you say, in real terms may result in a lot of B/E's.
Quoting simond2002
So, I want to throw this question out.. EURUSDM15 created a nice demand zone at the blue box. Obviously, it'd be nice to look for a buy setup there, if as and when price retests. The question is perhaps more obvious, given that price would need to drop in order to test that demand zone, would you consider selling it? EURUSDM15.png;2169332 {image}
Threw this question out here yesterday. This is how the market ended up answering.

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Quoting simond2002
Price "Will Tell" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIbYCOiETx0
Late to the party, but nice one !!!! Thread and music!
Quoting simond2002
{quote} Threw this question out here yesterday. This is how the market ended up answering. EURUSDM5.png;2170682 {image}
The complete H1 cycle of demand to supply to demand plays out.

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Fresh journal entry here
EURCAD M5

An interesting point of inflection.

I personally won't be trading this because it's late here but have marked it up anyhow and will return tomorrow to see how it played out.

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Quoting simond2002
GBPJPY D1 Just a bit of PA as price crosses the Daily. GBPJPYDaily.png;2169149 {image}
D1

Was looking at GBPJPY D1 a few days ago and felt, given that the market had created quite a nice looking fresh supply that the odds where quite high that this piece of whipsawing PA that played out over a few days would make quite a decent LH and perhaps some form of channel that could eventually be shorted longer term.

Little surprised (although to be honest nothing in this market surprises me any more ) that price has actually retraced to the origin of the whipsaw. Question now has to be, will it continue rising out the channel, or will it go short?

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M5

Market has formed a H/S at this flag and left in its wake a nice looking M5 supply zone at the right shoulder (141.60'ish). Could be a heads up for lower price, may not be. Have set an alert and will trade the PA on retest if I'm at the monitor and it sets up.

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Quoting simond2002
M5 Market has formed a H/S at this flag and left in its wake a nice looking M5 supply zone at the right shoulder (141.60'ish). Could be a heads up for lower price, may not be. Have set an alert and will trade the PA on retest if I'm at the monitor and it sets up.
The M5 level above failed to materialise. Have found an M1 short entry this morning, which is now protected. Could go anywhere at the moment, have to sit this one out. Will post a journal entry later.

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Journal entry here
On this TF (M5) what would you say the "direction" of UJDJPY currently is and why?

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Quoting simond2002
{quote} The M5 level above failed to materialise. Have found an M1 short entry this morning, which is now protected. Could go anywhere at the moment, have to sit this one out. Will post a journal entry later. Screenshot_4.png;2181978 {image}
Finicky Friday.
Journal entry here
Quoting simond2002
On this TF (M5) what would you say the "direction" of UJDJPY currently is and why?
Down. Making LL, LH. Made all time low.
Quoting Shantala
{quote} Down. Making LL, LH. Made all time low.
I'd agree. SR gives "direction" thus paving the way to sell the tops of any retraces
with of course, our own chosen format of entry PA/risk control etc.

Friday's closing chart (not shown) is a beautiful example.

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GBPJPY M5

Tricky week. Are you buying or selling?
Me... Looking to buy if the market retests 141.945 and gives a decent PA. Reason on chart.

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