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Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #101
  • Jan 25, 2017 9:59am Jan 25, 2017 9:59am
If you are tracking gold, consider a 61.8% Fib pull back of your recent swing low tradeable southwards. The current swing low on the 4H time frame gives a 61.8% Fib level around 1210, which adjoins the daily pivot. You may even find one or two other confluence factors there, e.g. confluence of trendlines and also a significant MA serving as a probable dynamic resistance.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #102
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:19am Jan 25, 2017 10:19am
Too late to the party? I set a sell limit order at 61.8 Fib area on the 4H time frame, my set-up time frame. However, upon looking at the 1H time frame I found that the price action has kissed a retrace at 32.8 Fib near the weekly pivot and heads southwards. I will leave my sell limit order where I placed it, no chasing the market.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking gold, consider a 61.8% Fib pull back of your recent swing low tradeable southwards. The current swing low on the 4H time frame gives a 61.8% Fib level around 1210, which adjoins the daily pivot. You may even find one or two other confluence factors there, e.g. confluence of trendlines and also a significant MA serving as a probable dynamic resistance. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #103
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:34am Jan 25, 2017 10:34am
KeenPips, hello! How you think, such option of movement of the price can be?
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To learn how to swim , you first need to enter the water!
  • #104
  • Jan 25, 2017 10:47am Jan 25, 2017 10:47am
Possible! I'll let the price action get there first and wait for the reaction. Although cable is on a rally upwards atm, the major market outlook is bearish and the market structure is not yet broken. You can expect cable to turn southwards very soon, perhaps after another 80 pips northwards.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting wayfarer
KeenPips, hello! How you think, such option of movement of the price can be? Screenshot_45.png;2155951 {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #105
  • Jan 29, 2017 2:57pm Jan 29, 2017 2:57pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the dominant trend on the weekly time frame is downwards, price action has consolidated for a long while but the descending trend has largely been maintained. Price has respected a major descending trendline on the weekly timeframe. However, as recent price action is towards the north side, it is apparent that this is more likely to be corrective (magenta coloured trend line) because the market structure has not been breached.

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On the 4H time frame, price is operating within an ascending channel.This is in line with the observation on the weekly time frame. A break of the channel to the downside is likely to target the immediate support zone around 1.05930, which borders the monthly pivot. A further move upwards the channel may target the weekly resistance zone around 1.08400. Thus, any opportunity for a buy trade for small profit can be taken but the more confident trade is for a sell trade, possibly after a retracement to the upside.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and succeed.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #106
  • Jan 29, 2017 3:16pm Jan 29, 2017 3:16pm
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The dominant trend on the weekly time frame is downwards. The significant technicals resonate for further bearish push even though a doji candlestick formed on the weekly time frame last week.

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On the daily time frame, the downward trend has been maintained after a retracement of the swing low from a bearish drive beginning during the second week of September 2016. The retracement which started in November 2016 culminated at the 78.6 Fib level in December 2016. Thereafter, the descending trending continued and an inner trendline (navy colour) has been respected by price action, much recently after a pull back that met the 61.8 Fib level two weeks ago. The significant technicals are in support of further bearish move.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #107
  • Feb 5, 2017 2:51pm Feb 5, 2017 2:51pm
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has maintained a northward disposition. The order flow on the weekly time frame is highly influenced by the bulls.The pair shook off a 32.8 Fib retracement in December 2016 to continue its upward bearing. Price action validated an inner trendline in the past two weeks and the upward push was apparently consummated with a bullish candlestick which formed a train track together with the previous weekly candlestick. All the technicals on the weekly time frame are aligned for a further northward move with a likely target being the immediate resistance zone, around 0.8727.

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A penant formation can be seen on the daily time frame (navy colour) and may very much align with the observation of a further upward move made in regard to the weekly time frame. However, it is important to watch further price action within the consolidation area. A break of the channel upward is likely to confirm a further upward move. Should the lower channel line break southwards, price may target the trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) and retest the 32.8 Fib level before any further upturn.

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The 4H time frame indicates that the bulls are becoming more influential after the bears took control in the middle of January 2017. The technicals are supportive of further move northwards but the immediate resistance or barrier is less than 70 pips away around 0.8727. Look out for a possible role flip to the downside around this resistance zone.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #108
  • Feb 5, 2017 3:04pm Feb 5, 2017 3:04pm
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The trend on this pair has been predominantly downwards on the weekly time frame for a long while. Recent price action in the past one year has seen two major price waves downwards with the trend lines – outer and inner – well respected. The current price wave continued a strong momentum downwards and has respected a most recent trendline. Last week a bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame to give further clarity to the influence of the bears after the formation of an indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame a week before. The location of the candlestick indicated a much likely role flip, as a previous supply zone is being turned to a resistance zone. However, as the next support zone is less than 100 pips away, around 1.6147, price action may stall in that area before any further southward move can be expected.

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Price action on the 4H timeframe is in line with the observation on the weekly time frame. Recently, after a period of consolidation, price respected a descending trendline (magenta colour) and increased its momentum southwards, which led to the formation of a more acute trend respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour, dotted line). As current price action is around an S/R zone and the monthly pivot, it is not surprising that there is a bit of sideways operation in that area. There may be a retest of the inner trendline to the upside before further southward move can be confidently expected. The key technicals are in support of further bearish domination.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #109
  • Feb 5, 2017 3:08pm Feb 5, 2017 3:08pm
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair is disposed southwards. On the monthly timeframe, after a retracement for the most part of 2015, the pair has maintained a bearish disposition since January 2016.

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All the technicals on the weekly, daily and 4H time frames support a bearish disposition for the pair.

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An ascending triangle has formed on the 4H time frame and the price action action is operating in a descending channel within it.

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Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_4H_Feb._5,_2017.png Size: 25 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #110
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:26am Feb 7, 2017 2:26am
Current update on GBPCAD:

This pair has moved 70 pips southwards since yesterday. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attachment g

Quoting KeenPips
GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook The trend on this pair has been predominantly downwards on the weekly time frame for a long while. Recent price action in the past one year has seen two major price waves downwards with the trend lines outer and inner well respected. The current price wave continued a strong momentum downwards and has respected a most recent trendline. Last week a bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame to give further clarity to the influence of the bears after the formation of an indecision candlestick on the weekly...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #111
  • Feb 7, 2017 2:35am Feb 7, 2017 2:35am
Current update on EURNZD:

This pair has moved more than 200 pips southwards since yesterday. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Quoting KeenPips
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook The pair is disposed southwards. On the monthly timeframe, after a retracement for the most part of 2015, the pair has maintained a bearish disposition since January 2016. EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Monthly_Feb._5,_2917.png;2173437 All the technicals on the weekly, daily and 4H time frames support a bearish disposition for the pair. EURNZD_Top-Down_Analysis_Weekly_Feb._5,_2017.png;2173439 An ascending triangle has formed on the 4H time frame and the price action action is operating in a descending channel within it....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #112
  • Feb 7, 2017 3:35am Feb 7, 2017 3:35am
EURGBP update:

The pair has been in sideways mode since yesterday. However, the range is much likely to be a scalper's delight. The current disposition is to the upside of the range. Trade safe and prosper.

KP



Quoting KeenPips
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has maintained a northward disposition. The order flow on the weekly time frame is highly influenced by the bulls.The pair shook off a 32.8 Fib retracement in December 2016 to continue its upward bearing. Price action validated an inner trendline in the past two weeks and the upward push was apparently consummated with a bullish candlestick which formed a train track together with the previous weekly candlestick. All the technicals on the weekly time frame are aligned for a further northward move with a likely...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP_Update_1H_Feb._7,_2017.png Size: 27 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #113
  • Feb 7, 2017 3:35am Feb 7, 2017 3:35am
EURGBP update:

The pair has been in sideways mode since yesterday. However, the range is much likely to be a scalper's delight. The current disposition is to the upside of the range. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting KeenPips
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook The pair has maintained a northward disposition. The order flow on the weekly time frame is highly influenced by the bulls.The pair shook off a 32.8 Fib retracement in December 2016 to continue its upward bearing. Price action validated an inner trendline in the past two weeks and the upward push was apparently consummated with a bullish candlestick which formed a train track together with the previous weekly candlestick. All the technicals on the weekly time frame are aligned for a further northward move with a likely...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #114
  • Feb 12, 2017 3:50pm Feb 12, 2017 3:50pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The main trend on the pair is downwards, but the recent price action has largely been corrective. On the weekly time frame, price retraced 50% of the swing low of December 2016 created from the October 2016 peak. And all the significant technicals on both the weekly and daily time frames support a further bearish move. On the weekly time frame, a bearish candlestick was formed on the weekly time frame although it was somewhat hindered by some bullish resistance. A much likely target of a further bearish move is the immediate support zone, around 1.0453.
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On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel, which it has broken to the downside. This portends for further bearish move of the pair during the week, although there may be a retesting of the lower channel (magenta colour) line before a further bearish drive.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #115
  • Edited Feb 13, 2017 4:47am Feb 12, 2017 4:06pm | Edited Feb 13, 2017 4:47am
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The main trend on the pair is downwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair continues to respect the descending trendline (chocolate colour). After a period of corrective move, price action retraced to the 50% Fib of the swing drop of September 2016 through October 2016. Presently, price action on the weekly time frame shows a struggle between the bulls and the bears with the bulls still more influential. Should the bulls overpower the bears, a much likely target upwards will be the immediate resistance zone around 1.3030, which adjoins the 61.8 Fib and may also retest the descending trendline (chocolate colour).

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On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel with the technicals in support of a bullish push upwards. This is in line with the observation on the weekly timeframe. As the main trend is southwards, should the lower channel line break southwards, a much likely target will be the origin of the channel around 1.2050, which coincides with the gap down of early January 2017.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Attached Image
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #116
  • Feb 19, 2017 2:23pm Feb 19, 2017 2:23pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Since the beginning of 2017, price action on the pair on the daily time frame has been on a retracement upwards covering over 290 pips to respect the 61.8 Fib level with a significant moving average serving as a confluence and resistance. Thereafter the order flow has been dominated by the bears. Last week the bulls made a push upwards but on Friday a piercing line formed to counter the bulls.

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On the H4 time frame, the downward trendline is well respected after a 50.0 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low from February 2, 2017. The most recent order flow has seen two relatively big bearish candlesticks showing the influence of the bears. The technicals on the H4 time frame support a further southward move with a possible initial target of around 1.0490, which is in confluence with the immediate support zone and the trendline joining the swing lows on the H4 time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #117
  • Feb 19, 2017 2:33pm Feb 19, 2017 2:33pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Although the pair is still technically disposed southwards, cable is currently in a ranging/sideways mode but the general technical disposition is southwards (See the attached W1 and 4H charts). Should price action break the range on H4 to the south, that will open up a role flip of the zone for further bearish move.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #118
  • Feb 19, 2017 2:57pm Feb 19, 2017 2:57pm
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been predominantly bearish since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, the market respected an outer trendline until May 2016 and then the downward momentum increased leading to the formation of an inner trendline. Most recent price action consolidated in a triangle – more clearly seen on the daily time frame – but with the bears still influential. This portends a further southward move at least to target the immediate support around 1.59872. There is potential for a visit to 1.58600, around the low of the July 2016 bearish drop.

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On the 4 hour time frame, the price action has been in a consolidating mode recently but the technicals and order flow context favour the bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Feb._19,_2017.png Size: 26 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #119
  • Feb 26, 2017 3:10pm Feb 26, 2017 3:10pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been primarily south bound for some time. On both the monthly and weekly time frames, recent price action has been lrgely dominated by the bears. On the weekly time frame, the past two weeks have witnessed two strong bearish candlesticks and the technicals favour further bearish move; a likely target being around 109.980, the immediate weekly support zone. Failure to push southwards may see price action operate in a sideways mode or target the top of the recent bearish drop around 114.480, which adjoins the monthly pivot and the long-term MA on my system.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price action and order flow context on the H4 time frame support the observation on the weekly time frame – the southward move is favoured. However, the momentum is weakening judging by the spatial relationship of the significant MAs on my system. This is also understandable as price action is within a support zone on the H4 time frame. Price action may be sideways in the zone or be pull back to around 112.600 before further bearish move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Feb._26,_2017.png Size: 34 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #120
  • Feb 26, 2017 3:32pm Feb 26, 2017 3:32pm
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been primarily on a southward move since November 2014. On the weekly time frame, a major retracement began in October 2016 and consummated at the significant 123.000 level, respecting the descending trendline. After a period of sideways trading in that zone, the order flow has been dominated by the sellers. An inside week candlestick which formed two weeks ago has been followed through southwards with a bearish candlestick last week. All technicals support a further southwards move with a likely target being the 115.500 level which is at a significant weekly support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the H4 time frame, price action operated within a horizontal channel for much of February. It has rejected the channel line southwards and after a retracement earlier last week the momentum for further southwards move has increased. However, as price has moved below the low of December 2016 and an area of support on the H4 time frame, a reaction should be expected before any further southwards move, perhaps a retest of the immediate resistance zone between 119.420 and 119.800.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_Top-Down_Analysis_H4_Feb._26,_2017.png Size: 37 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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