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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #439,461
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:49am Sep 9, 2016 3:49am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Hello Wdfx, my stops are structural or sometime timestops. I never ever use "amount of pips or percentage" stops. In this particular case the only position to put a stop is right inside the gap down (somewhere). Also it is a good rule to not move the stops above or below during a position unless a new structural level is reached. Breakeven is only a price and it doesn't offer any particular value in order to be a secure place to put your stops. It is only a psychological level and it has nothing to do with trading. So a trailing stop, made...
Hi Lock, as a relative newbie I am struggling with this philosophy. I am very new to Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and have lots to learn and I find it very interesting and believe it will help my decision making. However fundamentally I trade to make money. There are so many variables in the market and ways of evaluating decisions. To me at present I do not know enough to understand where the structural levels are therefore I trade on my limited knowledge of support / resistance, candlestick theory and some indicators and trend lines. I know that I am not going to get the perfect trade but I will endeavour to win at minimal risk by taking what I can when I can. I endeavour to get better at this.
Striving for consistency
  • #439,462
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:50am Sep 9, 2016 3:50am
Watch 4 hour trying to make a base of it fails ? Well could be right but we play it as it comes gap attraction from brt will have to be filled one day just have to get the right trade gl from sunny jersey party time
  • #439,463
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:52am Sep 9, 2016 3:52am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Any institution in order to operate need live people inside it. When an institution is "closed" because of an holiday, you may find inside it only cleaning stuff and security: they do not move billions, they do not perform ask phones, they do not give assistance to their clients. So their clients are not able to operate at all. You may say that a big client could have a lot of banks abroad, where there is no any sort of holiday at all. Correct: but if he is a big client, he is not a "guy", he is a company, a fund, a corporation. And if there...
You are saying weak hands and going on about us controls everything... no idea what you are on about cleaning etc... I'm saying how do you know which companies are positioned where... UK firms are more than likely positioned in the same way us are...
  • #439,464
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:52am Sep 9, 2016 3:52am
On 1 min look we had the usual 78% on the spike let's see where it's going
  • #439,465
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:53am Sep 9, 2016 3:53am
CD periods lows make a poor low for current GB session. Gap is still intact. but below it we got the opening price tagged. HB has been removed.
Note that we spent here 2 hours and we are in a very narrow range (23 pips) It could unfold from here.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,466
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:53am Sep 9, 2016 3:53am
Quoting pointlessfor
3300 long 3334 target
Hey Pointless (apologies) you still in long? Thinking short, again breaking my own rules. what do I know.
Striving for consistency
  • #439,467
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:54am Sep 9, 2016 3:54am
Db would or could be on 1 min watch it the break would be the 4 hour base 50/50 now hats hold tight
  • #439,468
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:56am Sep 9, 2016 3:56am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Hi Lock, is the majority of the risk not at the entry point? If you think the risk is high is it not appropriate to have tighter stops. If you enter and after an appropriate short time period you think it is still a high risk then there is the option to move your stop to break even and let the trade run using a trailing stop. Would that not help with your fear. You do not need to be constantly at the computer to close a trade should it move in the wrong direction. It is a know fact that most traders have more looses than winners but the...

Any wise guy once told me that your stop should influence your trade and if the stop is in a position that looks bad, such as SR and things like that then it's probs not a wise trade...

Stop placements should invalidate trades imo
  • #439,469
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:57am Sep 9, 2016 3:57am
Quoting Sammih
The next 60 minutes could decide rest of day. A bear candle will make a major case for 3250 I mean, isn't this just the traders dilemma, the best place to sell is the worst for real. Ill put a light short trade at 3302 to be added upon as and when price allows {image}
you predicting an all day bear show,broh?
  • #439,470
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:59am Sep 9, 2016 3:59am
Quoting Don96
{quote} You are saying weak hands and going on about us controls everything... no idea what you are on about cleaning etc... I'm saying how do you know which companies are positioned where... UK firms are more than likely positioned in the same way us are...
Listen, maybe I'm not clear and I'm sorry for that. Let's say it in an other way: I'm not saying no one is operating during a pit session when we have an holiday in US. I'm saying that US traders (the bigger ones) are not fully performing during that time, so the GB operators cannot have any idea about their conviction in this particular situation because they cannot see them act as normal. Weak hands is not an absolut term, is only definition given to a relative situation. Relative means that there is an entity "the partecipation" that is not so big as normal and consequently it has not the same value as normal. So a move made during pit session, during a holiday in the US, is "generally", "relatively", "normaly" not so strong as a move made during pit session when there is no holiday in the US.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,471
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:59am Sep 9, 2016 3:59am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Any wise guy once told me that your stop should influence your trade and if the stop is in a position that looks bad, such as SR and things like that then it's probs not a wise trade... Stop placements should invalidate trades imo
Your probably right again... I've heard that before, just forgotten... As I have said many times before my problem is my entry point.
Striving for consistency
  • #439,472
  • Edited 9:06am Sep 9, 2016 3:59am | Edited 9:06am
If it goes them from 1 min spike to the bottom ext to 61% it's target ? Can any body do the sum . Not easy on my iPhoneas above it was sooooo simple did any body manage the sums ?
  • #439,473
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:03am Sep 9, 2016 4:03am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} London close is 16:30
You are speaking about stock Exchange close time. Correct. The forex London close is a virtual close accepted by anyone in the forex environment as a fundamental reference. It is a social convention.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,474
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:06am Sep 9, 2016 4:06am
we need a move down similar to a shakeout at low volume preferably.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #439,475
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:08am Sep 9, 2016 4:08am
Quoting elbert3
If it goes them from 1 min spike to the bottom ext to 61% it's target ? Can any body do the sum . Not easy on my iPhone
I'll do it if you explain more, are you talking about the spike to 3309 and the low for the day of 3286 which is 23 pips?
Striving for consistency
  • #439,476
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:08am Sep 9, 2016 4:08am
Quoting Lock
{quote} You are speaking about stock Exchange close time. Correct. The forex London close is a virtual close accepted by anyone in the forex environment as a fundamental reference. It is a social convention.
I must've missed that in the last 12 years then.....

you really think that institutional traders in london sit there till 6pm? you'd walk into an empty room.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #439,477
  • Edited 4:21am Sep 9, 2016 4:11am | Edited 4:21am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Hi Lock, as a relative newbie I am struggling with this philosophy. I am very new to Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and have lots to learn and I find it very interesting and believe it will help my decision making. However fundamentally I trade to make money. There are so many variables in the market and ways of evaluating decisions. To me at present I do not know enough to understand where the structural levels are therefore I trade on my limited knowledge of support / resistance, candlestick theory and some indicators and trend...

Well, I can make a live example for you: let's say you sold at the opening, considering the GB gap down as a good structural event. Now your stops should be place right above that structural level (the top of the GB session, right inside the gap down.) Ok? Right. Now price moved down and make a lot of little things but, eventually, do not went up to take out your stops, correct? All the other period tops are weak, so you cannot move your stops above them. So do you stay in or not? Well, you have to monitor for continuation in the direction of your position. How to do that? Have a look to the down side levels acheived. Are they weak or not? We got a poor low here: is it weak or not? Is the auction over or not in your opinion, considering that there is not a good low right now? This is the sort of things you should consider and evaluate. Obviously, when everything is weak above and below, it's a tough decision. And this is exactly why I'm not involved in this market. Because I'm not able to establish wich part is more weak and then the odds agains or in favour of me.

You want to know what is relative weak. Here is an (incomplete) list.
Any precise tagged level is weak:
The mid of the session is weak (half way back: HB)
The session open is weak.
The yesterday session close (18:00 +1GMT) and session unchanged (14:00 +1GMT) are weak.[these refs are different for other sessions]
Yesterday session low or high is weak.
Overnight low and high are both weak.
A previous session poor low or poor high is weak.
A round number is weak (3250, 3200, 3350, 3300 etc.)
A previous low or high tagged is weak.
The top or the bottom of a sharp fast movement made by a news is (sometime) weak.
...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,478
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:12am Sep 9, 2016 4:12am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/EnPBWZCY/
  • #439,479
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:12am Sep 9, 2016 4:12am
Quoting soultrader
{quote} I must've missed that in the last 12 years then..... you really think that institutional traders in london sit there till 6pm? you'd walk into an empty room.
He meant 5pm London time (he used gmt+1).
  • #439,480
  • Sep 9, 2016 4:15am Sep 9, 2016 4:15am
Quoting mades
{quote} He meant 5pm London time (he used gmt+1).

Makes no difference anyway, I just trade the 'now' no patterns, no fibs, no bollocks predictions. just see the flow of water and join in.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
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