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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #439,441
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:34am Sep 9, 2016 2:34am
Quoting Lock
Goog morning, GB is going to open with a gap down from yesterday GB low at 3339. Pit session left a poor low at 32834. PreUS a poor high at 33595. Below the 3252 zone is still a big problem for continuation upwards. While at the same time the upper zone from 34215 to 34445 is a big problem for continuation downside. Let's see if this gap down will resist or not. PS:yesterday pit session was a liquid
ation of the early weak move up start. Look at its profile: it is an other perfect "b" shape. (as anticipated in my previous posts before it copleted)...


Lock, may I ask you to make some descriptions each time you see daily profile? The matter is that I know all the shapes of the market profiles daily, but I have not used them as such, like something that I can use for trading decisions. I am using some reference points only: IB, POC VAH and VAL, and I am watching the price behaviour at these reference points.

MP can be normally distributed, double distibuted or so. Let us see at the 'b' or 'p' MP shapes - you are saying these shapes are about positions' liquidation. I can understand.

However there are another 'shapes' of MP and they give us clues to foresee the forthcoming day movements. That is why I have such a question to you.

Best
D.P.

P.S.

Quoting Lock
{quote} As written multiple times I'm not trading at all (but testing). In a market only ruled by weak hands I've no edges to play: so I stay aside. But this doesn't mean other traders faster than me could act in such environment. I'm not so good for that. Kind regards, L.
I am sure you are, my friend.

P.P.S.

Do you use '3 days rule' to discover the current balance area ?
Hunting High and Low
  • #439,442
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:42am Sep 9, 2016 2:42am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} I know lock that is why I put now in the sentence? You could test your skills by demo a possible trade?
I did that for the last month (and more). But because my approach is to marry a position I'm not able to esc it quickly. I think to know the rules of the game this market is playing but fortunately I know even better my limitations (and this is exactly the purpose of a test) and for this reason I'll never put my money and my life at risk in a situation that do not fit my abilities. I can stay a couple of months or more without doing a trade if the market is not what I'm searching for. Obviously I'm not happy of this situation at all. And I hope to see some bigger timeframe in the next weeks. Let's see.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,443
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:48am Sep 9, 2016 2:48am
Looking at eurusd could be buy the big dip 1.116 possible long 1.22 in the coming months same thing gb 3116 3150 to 1.422
  • #439,444
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:57am Sep 9, 2016 2:57am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Lock, may I ask you to make some descriptions each time you see daily profile? The matter is that I know all the shapes of the market profiles daily, but I have not used them as such, like something that I can use for trading decisions. I am using some reference points only: IB, POC VAH and VAL, and I am watching the price behaviour at these reference points. MP can be normally distributed, double distibuted or so. Let us see at the 'b' or 'p' MP shapes - you are saying these shapes are about positions' liquidation. I can understand....

Allright Dr.Phoenix, I'll try to do it. I do not use the 3 days rule. I'll write some next days in order to describe better my approach. And why my aprroach does not fit with my limitations. I think this could be interesting also for other traders who maybe have the same problems but insted of staying aside are fully involved in this market and are frustrated for their results. And thanks for your appreciations. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,445
  • Sep 9, 2016 2:59am Sep 9, 2016 2:59am
The next 60 minutes could decide rest of day. A bear candle will make a major case for 3250

I mean, isn't this just the traders dilemma, the best place to sell is the worst for real. Ill put a light short trade at 3302 to be added upon as and when price allows
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 shorts.png Size: 53 KB
I'm high on trading, cant you tell?
  • #439,446
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:00am Sep 9, 2016 3:00am
omg..seller coming in big wave
The High Frequency Trader with 10years experience
  • #439,447
  • Edited 3:21am Sep 9, 2016 3:06am | Edited 3:21am
I make here a little example. Because it matches exactly the issue.
As you see we opened with a GB gap down. Generally this means that something occurred in the market. Because of the gap the value of the current GB session should have less probabilities to develop above or overlapping the value of yesterday GB session (that is clearly a lot higher from here). Now, because I trade value and not price, this could be a good opportunity to sell. And in fact in such a situation I generally sell. (I made it in my test right at the start of this session). But then, as you have seen some minutes before, you see price coming up exactly toGB open level. Here is the problem: a bigger timeframe will never stop there nor will use such a ref to sell again from it. This is a tipical entry point for weak hands. So at this point, in a market where both participants are present I will esc my shorts, because I do not want to stay togheter with weak hands.
Now, today, (and I think is the first time in a month or so) I decided to remain in just for fun (and only in my fake account) but even if I'm not risking anything I'm totally scared because I know that if some bigger timeframe will entry it could easily erase all this move in a matter of seconds. This is only an example of my attitude but I think is pretty clear. Regards, L.

PS: also notice that GB stopped exactly at the bottom of Sydney low. Do you think a bigger timeframe could be stopped here? Impossible. So as written a lot of time, this market is filled only by weak hands, above and below, and I didn't find any strong edge to operate.

PPS: and again, from Sydney low C period went up. Where? Exactly to the hb of the session! So if price will come back down from here it will leaving behind itself two weak refs in a row! Could I put my money in this? Maybe, if I was fast enough to esc quickly somewhere downside, or brave enough to stay for some hours in a short position that could be retraced abruptly at any moment in time. (and at an other unpredictable weak reference below!)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,448
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:09am Sep 9, 2016 3:09am
Lock, when using Market Profile, can you tell me when your day starts? (GMT)
  • #439,449
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:11am Sep 9, 2016 3:11am
3300 long 3334 target
  • #439,450
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:15am Sep 9, 2016 3:15am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Excuse me: if they weren't weak, why did they let others to fully retrace them?
Excuse me, but unless you can see every banks positions with their names and countries on the chart how do you know they weren't joining in with us... it's not like the UK etc is going to be trading against us...

Think about it
  • #439,451
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:19am Sep 9, 2016 3:19am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Allright Dr.Phoenix, I'll try to do it. I do not use the 3 days rule. I'll write some next days in order to describe better my approach. And why my aprroach does not fit with my limitations. I think this could be interesting also for other traders who maybe have the same problems but insted of staying aside are fully involved in this market and are frustrated for their results. And thanks for your appreciations. Best L.
Thanks, Lock.

For now I would like to publish MP-Multi Composite Profile. Enjoy it !!

Best
D.P.

Source - http://www.fxindi.net
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MP-Multi Composite Profiles.ex4   289 KB | 403 downloads
Hunting High and Low
  • #439,452
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:20am Sep 9, 2016 3:20am
Any body want to predict the news headlines? Ie inflation high carney changes tack ? Or inflation down carney safe for now ?
  • #439,453
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:21am Sep 9, 2016 3:21am
Quoting Lock
I make here a little example. Because it matches exactly the issue. As you see we opened with a GB gap down. Generally this means that something occurred in the market. Because of the gap the value of the current GB session should have less probabilities to develop above or overlapping the value of yesterday GB session (that is clearly a lot higher from here). Now, because I trade value and not price, this could be a good opportunity to sell. And in fact in such a situation I generally sell. (I made it in my test right at the start of this session)....
Hi Lock, is the majority of the risk not at the entry point? If you think the risk is high is it not appropriate to have tighter stops. If you enter and after an appropriate short time period you think it is still a high risk then there is the option to move your stop to break even and let the trade run using a trailing stop. Would that not help with your fear. You do not need to be constantly at the computer to close a trade should it move in the wrong direction. It is a know fact that most traders have more looses than winners but the winners should win more than the losers...
Striving for consistency
  • #439,454
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:28am Sep 9, 2016 3:28am
Quoting Sammih
The next 60 minutes could decide rest of day. A bear candle will make a major case for 3250 I mean, isn't this just the traders dilemma, the best place to sell is the worst for real. Ill put a light short trade at 3302 to be added upon as and when price allows {image}
So far its been a $ buying day across the board and my method has 80% probability the daily g/u low will be taken out.

Im still holding my shorts as chance is more on this IMO.
  • #439,455
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:31am Sep 9, 2016 3:31am
3280 /85 seems key to me looking for a bounce or a break before making a decision
Striving for consistency
  • #439,456
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:32am Sep 9, 2016 3:32am
...the Inflation-rate is better than expected. This will be push up I think...
  • #439,457
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:32am Sep 9, 2016 3:32am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Hi Lock, is the majority of the risk not at the entry point? If you think the risk is high is it not appropriate to have tighter stops. If you enter and after an appropriate short time period you think it is still a high risk then there is the option to move your stop to break even and let the trade run using a trailing stop. Would that not help with your fear. You do not need to be constantly at the computer to close a trade should it move in the wrong direction. It is a know fact that most traders have more looses than winners but the...

Hello Wdfx, my stops are structural or sometime timestops. I never ever use "amount of pips or percentage" stops. In this particular case the only position to put a stop is right inside the gap down (somewhere). Also it is a good rule to not move the stops above or below during a position unless a new structural level is reached. Breakeven is only a price and it doesn't offer any particular value in order to be a secure place to put your stops. It is only a psychological level and it has nothing to do with trading. So a trailing stop, made by a particular amount of pips is sensless. It could be anly a structural trailing stop. For instance, right now, there are no new structural position to move my stops from the gap. Above open level is weak. Above hb is weak, below the main POC is weak. So where? Nowhere: this is the answer.
An other thing is to scale out your position. This could be good.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,458
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:38am Sep 9, 2016 3:38am
Quoting mades
Lock, when using Market Profile, can you tell me when your day starts? (GMT)
There are "five" sessions. Take these times as +1GMT.
Sydney(and day) 23:00 open
Tokyo 02:00 open
London(GB) 09:00 open
preUS 14:00 open (and GB "unchanged": it is a vip ref but it is not the real end of the GB session)
Pit session 15:30 open

Then inside these sessions you have some other meaningfull time to consider:
11:00 Tokyo close
18:00 London close
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,459
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:45am Sep 9, 2016 3:45am
Quoting Don96
{quote} Excuse me, but unless you can see every banks positions with their names and countries on the chart how do you know they weren't joining in with us... it's not like the UK etc is going to be trading against us... Think about it
Any institution in order to operate need live people inside it. When an institution is "closed" because of an holiday, you may find inside it only cleaning stuff and security: they do not move billions, they do not perform ask phones, they do not give assistance to their clients.
So their clients are not able to operate at all. You may say that a big client could have a lot of banks abroad, where there is no any sort of holiday at all. Correct: but if he is a big client, he is not a "guy", he is a company, a fund, a corporation. And if there is an holiday also inside his building you will find the same cleaning stuff and security...And again they will not perform phone calls etc. Even the wolf of Wall Street didn't trade during holiday. He did drinks instead.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #439,460
  • Sep 9, 2016 3:48am Sep 9, 2016 3:48am
Quoting Lock
{quote} There are "five" sessions. Take these times as +1GMT. Sydney(and day) 23:00 open Tokyo 02:00 open London(GB) 09:00 open preUS 14:00 open (and GB "unchanged": it is a vip ref but it is not the real end of the GB session) Pit session 15:30 open Then inside these sessions you have some other meaningfull time to consider: 11:00 Tokyo close 18:00 London close
London close is 16:30
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