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EUR/USD overbought after long spike, crashing down soon?

  • #21
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:30am Dec 11, 2015 6:30am
those who sell at 1.10000 earlier
now seem like another sell, market hit lowest from 1.09200 to 1.09750, now seem like another sell.
the bull charge up blindly, bear is going to counter attack , claw the bull down again.

Bear went to sleep, bull charge up while bear was alseep, once the bear wake up , bull will get owned again....
maybe can sell now and take profit at 1.09000 (60 to 70pips)
  • #22
  • Dec 11, 2015 6:52am Dec 11, 2015 6:52am
Quoting hanover
{quote} If you used a SL of 100 pips, and simply left every trade open that's survived, then as of today, the results would be:  If you'd bought on every candle open, you'd currently still have 174 winning trades open, totalling +276,101 pips; but you would have lost 5,358 trades x 100 pips = -535,800 pips.  If you'd sold on every candle open, you'd currently still have 189 winning trades open, totalling +444,838 pips; but you would have lost 5,343 trades x 100 pips = -534,300 pips. Of course performance would be worse than this,...
Buddy, what kind of sick software do you have back there?
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #23
  • Dec 11, 2015 9:21am Dec 11, 2015 9:21am
Quoting hanover
{quote} If you used a SL of 100 pips, and simply left every trade open that's survived, then as of today, the results would be:  If you'd bought on every candle open, you'd currently still have 174 winning trades open, totalling +276,101 pips; but you would have lost 5,358 trades x 100 pips = -535,800 pips.  If you'd sold on every candle open, you'd currently still have 189 winning trades open, totalling +444,838 pips; but you would have lost 5,343 trades x 100 pips = -534,300 pips. Of course performance would be worse than this,...
What time period are we talking about?
  • #24
  • Edited 11:45am Dec 11, 2015 11:17am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting aeternum
Buddy, what kind of sick software do you have back there?
Excel. See post #7.

Quoting forex_fairy
What time period are we talking about?
Daily candles -- this is a follow-up to post #7. I've amended post #19 accordingly.

Quoting verv
Interesting analysis, good stuff.
Yes, it demonstrates that 'buy and hold indefinitely' likely works better with markets other than forex. Among other things, CB policy/intervention tends to ensure that currency pairs ultimately stay within a range. Of course all of this is widely known already.
  • #25
  • Last Post: Dec 14, 2015 8:18am Dec 14, 2015 8:18am
Quoting MisterWhite
{quote} Even if you're wrong, 99 times out of 100, if you wait long enough, it will reverse and go your way.
It is not 99/100, it i 100% of the time. The hard thing regarding trading is to define - what is right and what is wrong. I agree, market operates that way, if you wait infinitely long enough, any level will be hit. Question is, is it worth your involvement, to wait such a long time.
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