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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,901
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:26am Feb 17, 2015 10:26am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Thanks for the reminder ... . Forgot to check my oil prices. I don't trade oil, but prices seem to ripple through the market one way or the other ... . Undergoing a slight correction: {image} Generally translates into a bit of dollar weakness ... .
I hardly trade oil too tho i do play UC on one of the demo, and as we know oil is very correlated to cad
And yup, I didnt even notice gbp drop with plunging oil price till some folks pointed it out in EURUSD thread and elsewhere. pretty interesting really.

basically if oil drops further, risk off = USD and JPY gain strength. for some reason GBP will get weaker altho UK is a net oil importer too... (dont understand that yet)
  • #408,902
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:28am Feb 17, 2015 10:28am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I guess I would tend to agree with that ... . If I were a market maker with large amounts of cash, I might take out some bulls' SL's (assuming the positions weren't massive) to drive the price down so that I could get in at the price I wanted, a not uncommon practice in equities where you can look at order flow ... . Right now though, it appears to be struggling to stay above yesterday's low ... .
When I say "they" I don't mean some group of people that are manipulating the price to take stops. I don't know if that really happens. What I think takes place is that there are buyers and sellers that need liquidity. I think they just have to wait until the market hits a spot where liquidity is provided so they can have their orders filled. This just happens to be where a large amount of stops have been placed.

And one of the places where traders put their stops is at b/e after they are in a sizable profit. Where did the market become obvious that it was going to continue going in the same direction for a while?
  • #408,903
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:30am Feb 17, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} When I say "they" I don't mean some group of people that are manipulating the price to take stops. I don't know if that really happens. What I think takes place is that there are buyers and sellers that need liquidity. I think they just have to wait until the market hits a spot where liquidity is provided so they can have their orders filled. This just happens to be where a large amount of stops have been placed. And one of the places where traders put their stops is at b/e after they are in a sizable profit. Where did the market become...
actually there have been newspaper articles about this, and ongoing investigations by the regulators. banks have been fined billions too for manipulating prices. i think I saw such an article again within this last week. its something banks do to fill their orders at better prices for their commercial hedgers. we are just the "casualty". if i can find the article again will post here

EDIT: Oops sorry the article dated 2013 lol. But I do recall reading about 4 big banks in UK having to pay FCA a nice sum for rigging rates not (not for libor, but another one).

Btw this article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...it-off-clients does explain how this price fixing is done, and how.
  • #408,904
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:34am Feb 17, 2015 10:34am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} actually there have been newspaper articles about this, and ongoing investigations by the regulators. banks have been fined billions too for manipulating prices. i think I saw such an article again within this last week. its something banks do to fill their orders at better prices for their commercial hedgers. we are just the "casualty". if i can find the article again will post here
We don't have to be a casualty. In fact, we can use this to our advantage. When you see stops being taken, then you'll know where the market really wants to go. Also, don't put your stop in areas that haven't been thoroughly tested and "stopped" already.
  • #408,905
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:36am Feb 17, 2015 10:36am
we will see 1.5270 def.
  • #408,906
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:37am Feb 17, 2015 10:37am
1.535 1.534 now becomes resistance.
Will see.
  • #408,907
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:42am Feb 17, 2015 10:42am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} We don't have to be a casualty. In fact, we can use this to our advantage. When you see stops being taken, then you'll know where the market really wants to go. Also, don't put your stop in areas that haven't been thoroughly tested and "stopped" already.
Yea, the successful ones will be winners while the ones who lost money will be casualties. Just choosing a better terminology here

And tbh, its hard to tell... different people see things differently when lows are posted, bull team thinks its killing their longs yet it could be a bear trap for a bullish run later. i think we can actually play both sides and try to make some money.

Personally I want a LL to consider opening longs, and to close some bad shorts that werent closed by my EA due to server issues @ my broker recently
  • #408,908
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:42am Feb 17, 2015 10:42am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} ..Btw this article http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...it-off-clients does explain how this price fixing is done, and how.
I don't think this is the same thing I'm talking about, because what I'm talking about happens in every single market. I just think it is "how" a market moves. There's buyers and sellers. If you want to buy a billion euros, but will push the market 50 pips if you were to buy right now, you would be better off to wait until the market drifts lower into a "sweet spot" of stop-losses or a fake breakout/breakdown and then you'll have much more liquidity.
  • #408,909
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:45am Feb 17, 2015 10:45am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I don't think this is the same thing I'm talking about, because what I'm talking about happens in every single market. I just think it is "how" a market moves. There's buyers and sellers. If you want to buy a billion euros, but will push the market 50 pips if you were to buy right now, you would be better off to wait until the market drifts lower into a "sweet spot" of stop-losses or a fake breakout/breakdown and then you'll have much more liquidity.
thats what the "order book" is for... it does show clusters of stops and orders. And its known that banks usually contact their counterparty in other banks to determine best fill price for their business. thats what this article is talking about. they are not in there to make money speculating, but to actually fill orders @ better prices for their clients, mostly commercial entity who would like to hedge against currency risk

Hope that explains.

EDIT: Yes you right. Liquidity (place where theres many stops or orders) do matter. So does the time of the day... which is why these guys often have some employee working their orders through the market 24/5
  • #408,910
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:54am Feb 17, 2015 10:54am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} thats what the "order book" is for... it does show clusters of stops and orders. And its known that banks usually contact their counterparty in other banks to determine best fill price for their business. thats what this article is talking about. they are not in there to make money speculating, but to actually fill orders @ better prices for their clients, mostly commercial entity who would like to hedge against currency risk Hope that explains. EDIT: Yes you right. Liquidity (place where theres many stops or orders) do matter. So does...
Well whatever is going on doesn't really matter to me in the end, what matters is that it is on the chart and it is really all someone needs to make money.
  • #408,911
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:57am Feb 17, 2015 10:57am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Well whatever is going on doesn't really matter to me in the end, what matters is that it is on the chart and it is really all someone needs to make money.
agreed. thats why we should try to figure out where price is headed to (area with more liquidity I guess). If we can do that, we would be awesome
  • #408,912
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:31am Feb 17, 2015 11:31am
Hi Mary I'm more than happy to show you the light and review the monthly as we go ..

Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} Market makers and yea... Like was saying earlier, it is still too early to call Monthly TF a piercing pattern line for now... still need to see how the candle closes end of month. looks like USD may be gaining strength due to risk off and also oncoming FOMC minutes and Yellen's testimony up later this month. Then again, we gotta be careful of the way price moves...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #408,913
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:32am Feb 17, 2015 11:32am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} agreed. thats why we should try to figure out where price is headed to (area with more liquidity I guess). If we can do that, we would be awesome
I look for both. If you see an area with no liquidity, you will know that when price heads back to that area there will be nothing to stop it. This is another reason why I think we'll be making new highs very soon. That high at 1.5440 hit nothing of great importance. That was not a good place to reverse. There were no big stops taken there and also no large sell orders.
  • #408,914
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:32am Feb 17, 2015 11:32am
Gu up watch 1.538sh level
  • #408,915
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:34am Feb 17, 2015 11:34am
Notice how all the big candles on the 1-minute are bullish?
  • #408,916
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:35am Feb 17, 2015 11:35am
Quoting Idkurv
Gu up watch 1.538sh level
Ok, I missed 1.536, but i think 1.536 easy to break
  • #408,917
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:36am Feb 17, 2015 11:36am
Quoting Zappa
Notice how all the big candles on the 1-minute are bullish?
H1 has bullish pin bar too.
  • #408,918
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:40am Feb 17, 2015 11:40am
Quoting Bones
Hi Mary I'm more than happy to show you the light and review the monthly as we go .. {quote}
Sure! Looking forward to it Bones
  • #408,919
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:43am Feb 17, 2015 11:43am
is it going to close below?
  • #408,920
  • Feb 17, 2015 11:43am Feb 17, 2015 11:43am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I look for both. If you see an area with no liquidity, you will know that when price heads back to that area there will be nothing to stop it. This is another reason why I think we'll be making new highs very soon. That high at 1.5440 hit nothing of great importance. That was not a good place to reverse. There were no big stops taken there and also no large sell orders.
Areas of huge liquidity are minority compared to areas of no liquidity (where price moves easily and can be found in 90%++ of time). I would assume price targets high liquidity zones to collect orders/trigger stops to create more liquidity and then continue forward. the thing is, we wont know it bounces or continues path until the nature of liquidity is confirmed, i.e. collecting more orders or triggering more stops in its favour.

Since it was unable to break .5300 it means high liquidity here and it collected some orders I think and moving up to find the other liquidity zone which will be the stronger offers? Let's see how it goes...
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