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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #408,881
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:27am Feb 17, 2015 9:27am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} long {image} at planed 5319 fingers crossed

maybe this week could make a nice dark cloud!!! this up movement could have been a nice bull trap by market movers
  • #408,882
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:31am Feb 17, 2015 9:31am
Quoting danndc
{quote} maybe this week could make a nice dark cloud!!! this up movement could have been a nice bull trap by market movers
you never know just going to hedge this one ,, dont normally hedge but might be early
  • #408,883
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:37am Feb 17, 2015 9:37am
Quoting danndc
{quote} maybe this week could make a nice dark cloud!!! this up movement could have been a nice bull trap by market movers

Market makers and yea... Like was saying earlier, it is still too early to call Monthly TF a piercing pattern line for now... still need to see how the candle closes end of month.

looks like USD may be gaining strength due to risk off and also oncoming FOMC minutes and Yellen's testimony up later this month. Then again, we gotta be careful of the way price moves...
  • #408,884
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:41am Feb 17, 2015 9:41am
I told other day. Eur up movement too weak for believe true bull gbp movement. In last months both currencies moved similar quantity of pips.
Try don't lose pants never...
  • #408,885
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:41am Feb 17, 2015 9:41am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} {image} not me back in going to the line or the emas on the day chart
Good charts elbert ... . I'm also working off the daily, where the downtrend appears intact ... .

That being said, I'm going to peel off my most at risk leg (1/3rd of my position) at 1.5274 and let the other two thirds ride, since they were entries taken more toward the top of the trajectory .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,886
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:44am Feb 17, 2015 9:44am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Good charts elbert ... . I'm also working off the daily, where the downtrend appears intact ... . That being said, I'm going to peel off my most at risk leg (1/3rd of my position) at 1.5274 and let the other two thirds ride, since they were entries taken more toward the top of the trajectory .... .
Also, don't want to get caught in the short squeeze nonsense we had last week (seems like a distant memory), so keeping an eye on CCI overbought/oversold ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,887
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:51am Feb 17, 2015 9:51am
The market is just taking out the weak stops below and in the process convincing many others to go short. If you went short at the top, congratulations, but you better take profits soon because this will be making new highs. Let's see where we are by the end of the month.

The fact that we are taking out any weak stops now, instead of after reaching a higher level (1.5600) first, tells me that we won't be back here once it resumes heading higher.
  • #408,888
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:53am Feb 17, 2015 9:53am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Also, don't want to get caught in the short squeeze nonsense we had last week (seems like a distant memory), so keeping an eye on CCI overbought/oversold ... .

CCI or Stoch better?
  • #408,889
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:56am Feb 17, 2015 9:56am
Quoting Zappa
The market is just taking out the weak stops below and in the process convincing many others to go short. If you went short at the top, congratulations, but you better take profits soon because this will be making new highs. Let's see where we are by the end of the month. The fact that we are taking out any weak stops now, instead of after reaching a higher level (1.5600) first, tells me that we won't be back here once it resumes heading higher.

how can you say that? so they are taking off bulls' stops as well
  • #408,890
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:56am Feb 17, 2015 9:56am
Quoting danndc
{quote} maybe this week could make a nice dark cloud!!! this up movement could have been a nice bull trap by market movers
I'm also thinking "news"/bull trap ... . We're at the level of the news release/breakout last Thursday, so there could be SL's at or around this level that will trigger, causing a short-term cascade lower, although a couple of those hourly wicks may have done the trick already:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU News Trap.jpg Size: 199 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,891
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:59am Feb 17, 2015 9:59am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} CCI or Stoch better?
I kind of have a penchant for CCI lately. Seems to have more gradation .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,892
  • Feb 17, 2015 9:59am Feb 17, 2015 9:59am
GBP goes UP again
  • #408,893
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:01am Feb 17, 2015 10:01am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Good charts elbert ... . I'm also working off the daily, where the downtrend appears intact ... . That being said, I'm going to peel off my most at risk leg (1/3rd of my position) at 1.5274 and let the other two thirds ride, since they were entries taken more toward the top of the trajectory .... .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30.png Size: 58 KB
gone long at this time i have 2 reasons i would of liked a 3rd , but lets see regardsE
  • #408,894
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:02am Feb 17, 2015 10:02am
Quoting danndc
{quote} how can you say that? so they are taking off bulls' stops as well
Damn right they are taking bulls' stops. They aren't allowed to get on this train so easily! And look at this move down we've had over the last couple days, it has been way too easy on the bears.
  • #408,895
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:04am Feb 17, 2015 10:04am
Quoting zebrasquirl
{quote} i kind of have a penchant for cci lately. Seems to have more gradation .... .
if this run up fails the i have your 5270 area in mind .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d.png Size: 61 KB
  • #408,896
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:10am Feb 17, 2015 10:10am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Damn right they are taking bulls' stops. They aren't allowed to get on this train so easily! And look at this move down we've had over the last couple days, it has been way too easy on the bears.
due to high risk events up ahead, maybe bulls are squaring positions to mitigate risk? meanwhile dollar and yen acts like a safe haven if oil drops. i think its related to oil... showing signs of topping.
  • #408,897
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:12am Feb 17, 2015 10:12am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Damn right they are taking bulls' stops. They aren't allowed to get on this train so easily! And look at this move down we've had over the last couple days, it has been way too easy on the bears.
I guess I would tend to agree with that ... . If I were a market maker with large amounts of cash, I might take out some bulls' SL's (assuming the positions weren't massive) to drive the price down so that I could get in at the price I wanted, a not uncommon practice in equities where you can look at order flow ... .

Right now though, it appears to be struggling to stay above yesterday's low ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #408,898
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:13am Feb 17, 2015 10:13am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} I guess I would tend to agree with that ... . If I were a market maker with large amounts of cash, I might take out some bulls' SL's (assuming the positions weren't massive) to drive the price down so that I could get in at the price I wanted, a not uncommon practice in equities where you can look at order flow ... .
thats what i was saying earlier too... why would they wanna long near resistance... lol. they should ideally drive price down further and run go for a nice run up if its a bull run. on other hand, bears want a close below .5338 too... so there is agreement on both side - price has to go down first.

ps: this could also be related to Oil as suggested by some folks
  • #408,899
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:21am Feb 17, 2015 10:21am
tomorrow macro data
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H1........gif Size: 165 KB
  • #408,900
  • Feb 17, 2015 10:23am Feb 17, 2015 10:23am
Quoting MaryAnne
{quote} due to high risk events up ahead, maybe bulls are squaring positions to mitigate risk? meanwhile dollar and yen acts like a safe haven if oil drops. i think its related to oil... showing signs of topping.
Thanks for the reminder ... . Forgot to check my oil prices. I don't trade oil, but prices seem to ripple through the market one way or the other ... . Undergoing a slight correction:

Attached Image


Generally translates into a bit of dollar weakness ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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