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  • #6,721
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:39am Oct 18, 2014 3:39am
Quoting VEEFX
Another related trivia : how do you make a risk free or limited risk entry without using SL or limit/stop hedged orders.if Graeme advocates against predefined entries, why do we have to redefine stop loss during entry at the high/low of candle or whatever. Why do so many threads and strategies advocate putting stop loss at levels for smart money to use us as scapegoats to their benefit in filling large orders as TRD described in his recent post? One has to QUESTION everything we read/hear when it comes to trading and back every theory with hard...
All trading is discretionary, predefined or not.

You are placing a trade when you ENTER and you are placing a trade when you EXIT. This means both ENTRIES and EXITS are discretionary. SL is an EXIT which means SL's are discretionary whether you do it manually or automatically.

Hence how you decide to EXIT whether it is taking a loss or taking profits (partial or whole) should be an individual thing. It shouldn't really be a concern why so many threads and strategies advocate putting SL at levels to get taken out by the big boys.

What should be a concern is how the individual trader himself decides to control his risk. Greg Wilson once talked about the subject nature of stops and he has his own personal reasons for not using fixed SL. One of his reasoning is that even if you set your SL to 20,30,50,70, 100+ pips, They all get hit eventually. Greg also chooses to trade this way so that he mentally becomes more picky with the higher probability setups. Peter Crown's on the other hand chooses to place the SL on the inner bar for a tighter stop instead of the mother bar for a wider stop. Peter is willing to sacrifice higher winrate for better R:R.

Hence there is no absolute right/wrong answer with how one cuts his losses. As long as you plan ahead how much your willing to lose, the only question left for the individual is how to handle he profits when your SL does not get hit. How you handle your profits ultimately defines what type of trader you are.
  • #6,722
  • Oct 18, 2014 5:21am Oct 18, 2014 5:21am
Quoting TheRealDeal
There are only two low risk entries imho available with highest level of survivability: volatily breakouts and retraces from trapped retailer zones Volatility breakouts: IBs (pennants, consolidation) breakouts Retraces from trapped retailer zones: Engulfing Pattern retraces That's it. So lets end the entries discussion here and start practice them! The most profitable entry methods are hidden. Because they are impossible to backtest and hardest to trade. Only these we want to trade! Have you seen a black swan? TRD
TRD, thank you for this gem. Regarding "Retraces from trapped retailer zones: Engulfing Pattern retraces", if this is something you could elaborate on, it would be much appreciated. If it is something already discussed in the thread and I will come across eventually whilst perusing, and you will prefer I discover this myself (I know how people feel about people asking questions about things already discussed in a thread), then I will wait until I come across it. Thanks
  • #6,723
  • Oct 18, 2014 6:01am Oct 18, 2014 6:01am
Quoting Myrmica
{quote} {image} How can one know that the big bar with the first blue circle will really break through? One had to place a pending buy order there but how can you know that it will break through and not will be just one more bar with a long wick at the end as the bars next on the left? Even if it breaks through the next bar could reverse as it already happened again with the bars further left. They already broke through that inside bars and then later other bars went down again. The second blue circle I can also not understand. If in that place...
With with respect to your first question, the actual answer is embedded in your question. Why? Because you asked the question in the first place since you don't know yourself whether the big bar with the first blue circle will really break through. Here is the irony. We don't know either. The one's that do know for sure are the ones actually pushing the price and those who were given insider information about it.

Only when you PARTICIPATE with risk under control, you will know whether you are right or wrong.

Without respect to your second question, no one can do the explaining for you. You need to do your own analysis and chart study. There are many aspects of trading that screen time cannot replace.

The breakdown of my analysis was quite a lengthy read, which shows how long and complicated it could become when explaining the breakdown of the trade to another person. If you know what you are doing, such analysis can be done in a matter of seconds with a trading decision made shortly after.

There is a reason why most successful traders lost ALOT of money early in their trading career. When the enlightenment reaches them oneday, they learn from all the mistakes they made in the past that made them lose money. Then from screen time based on their experience, they start seeing behaviors of other losing traders on the charts that show the same behaviors and traits that they once had in their losing years. At this point, all they need to do is trade against the current losers and then profitable trading really starts to take off from there.
  • #6,724
  • Oct 18, 2014 6:13am Oct 18, 2014 6:13am
Quoting danjuma
{quote} TRD, thank you for this gem. Regarding "Retraces from trapped retailer zones: Engulfing Pattern retraces", if this is something you could elaborate on, it would be much appreciated. If it is something already discussed in the thread and I will come across eventually whilst perusing, and you will prefer I discover this myself (I know how people feel about people asking questions about things already discussed in a thread), then I will wait until I come across it. Thanks
Remember what happened when someone asked Peter Crowns for elaboration.

I understand that we as humans have the urge to find the answers right away, but you need to let the enlightenment to reach you at its own appointed time in some uncertain future.

Just a word of advice for any new and/or losing traders:

"If a successful trader gives hints and suggestions, NEVER ask for elaborations. Doing so is one of the surest way to make them lose the motive to help and/or contribute further"

If you cannot understand why they are being like this, you will CERTAINLY understand once the day comes where you yourself become profitable.
  • #6,725
  • Oct 18, 2014 12:26pm Oct 18, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I am deliberating whether I should respond and clutter with discussion on entries. You know very well how I feel about anything I see on forums. Just by showing a chart with trade lines (or the trade blotter) does NOT make it a legit chart or trader. Regarding spreads, imo, it is not RISK. Spreads, swaps, slippage, internet connectivy etc are all necessary cost of doing business. Even corporations treat 'known' and 'fixed' costs as operating expenses. If a trader is unable to recover spreads at least 51 percent of the time, he is just not...
open 2 positions, one long and on short, let the market decide which wins. But isn't that hedging?
  • #6,726
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:53pm Oct 18, 2014 2:53pm
ECB will stimulate the euro zone by ABS purchase program to downgrade the euro further and energize the staggering economy..... Now, let us stack short euro positions versus another strong currency... USD as FED will hike rates somewhere in first half of 2015... Don't place a stop until you have profitable trades which is risk free and BE after 100 or 200 .... May be fundamental is the key influence or bias for direction, and as long as we know where we are heading don't place a stop ......
  • #6,727
  • Oct 18, 2014 4:49pm Oct 18, 2014 4:49pm
Quoting VEEFX
This is for new traders ready to venture into this treacherous field of trading leveraged instruments in the financial markets. Hopefully, you can avoid the mistakes I made. I have been a buy and hold stock investor since 98 and blew several accounts in first few weeks in 2007. If not impossible, it is very very hard to be a speculator in such fast moving 24x5 markets trading on leverage and hoping to make a decent income. You will win some and then lose some creating undue stress for your loved ones. I would advice against anyone attempting to...
That is the second time in a few short hours I have heard a person saying you need 5 years to get your act together
  • #6,728
  • Oct 19, 2014 4:01am Oct 19, 2014 4:01am
Hello all. One of the situations that will lead to Graeme diversifying is when not sure what price is doing (price is stalling/in a range). My question is what chart period does he use as reference to determine this - monthly, weekly or daily charts? Many thanks.
  • #6,729
  • Oct 19, 2014 4:25am Oct 19, 2014 4:25am
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} That is the second time in a few short hours I have heard a person saying you need 5 years to get your act together
It's not 5 yrs - It takes as long as it takes and it's different for everyone.
  • #6,730
  • Oct 19, 2014 4:30am Oct 19, 2014 4:30am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Totally agree TRD - and I don't really need to know why they happen - just that they do. {image}
To take this chart further and hoepfully it will give more insight into how I like to get in on trades, look at the 3 examples that area squared off.

1) you have a Key Reversal bar being the Pin bar that breaks the previous days low, closes above that low and we therefore have a signal. The next bar is a massive bullish bar, that is a breakout candle. What do you notice about the market when it comes back. It pretty much hits the high of the Pin bar, the point of breakout and then runs north. Minimal drawdown.

2) Again, Pin bar reversal candle. Break the lows of multple days, closes above and forms the pin. Next candle is a solid breakout that does retrace but again, look where the market comes back too. That point of breakout. Drawdown again is minimal.

3) You example shows a trade set up later than the one I would be looking for, which is the almost Pin that closes slightly below the low however the follow candle breaks out strongly. The market returns again to the point of break, albeit this time a little bit of drawdown before moving away.

There are more on that chart. SO what does it all mean. Well there are 2 approaches in my opinion.

Approach 1 - You are aggressive and you buy/sell at the break of the signal bar and use the retrace as confirmation. If you get a bounce then you have a solid trade, if you don't, then provided you have taken some risk minimising options (half off, SL move below the thrust/breakout), then you will minimise the damage.

Approach 2 - More conservatively, you wait for the breakout and place a limit order at the point of breakout for an entry on the pullback.

What i have noticed is that there are pro's and con's to both. Sometimes you don't get the pullback and the trade goes verticle therefore losing a trade and not getting a limit entry, somethings you get the break but the market hits some trouble, retraces and you're left with a trade that could go against you.

For all intents and purposes I trade the 2nd, which I think was highlighted pretty well this week with the 2 AUD trades that missed by mere pips. It hurts at times but I just feel more comfortable with it. That may change depending on market bias and trade direction vs market direction but most of the times I like to see the break, place my entry and walk away for a awhile letting the market go on.

I will try and elaborate further on some occassions where I know that the Point of Break is unlikely to be retested and where I will either scale in from the entry zone down to the breakout point or leave the trade alone. Will have to get some examples first but the chart Stewrigh posted I thought was interesting enough to share my views.

Take Care

RT
  • #6,731
  • Oct 19, 2014 5:34am Oct 19, 2014 5:34am
Quoting danjuma
Hello all. One of the situations that will lead to Graeme diversifying is when not sure what price is doing (price is stalling/in a range). My question is what chart period does he use as reference to determine this - monthly, weekly or daily charts? Many thanks.
There is no definite answer to this. EXITS are discretionary. Hence G would not have hard rules that can be explained in some flowchart explanation.

Your focus should really be "what chart period I should use as reference to determine stall/range?"

Why? Because there are many subjective elements for the individual to define what is a stall and what is a range.
  • #6,732
  • Edited 5:41am Oct 19, 2014 5:37am | Edited 5:41am
Going back to my previous post I thought I would post an example of what I am looking at. This is a random chart from the past and I have used Forex Tester for it so yes it has been picked because it mets the criteria that I am looking to basically master myself in going forward and along the way hopefully build the confidence to take trades without hesitation AND let them grow. I am pretty good at the taking trades (when the market comes back enough) but the building long legs is still along way to go.

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I will aim to add more as we go include some live examples whether they play out or not. I think there is some power behind these PA/Breakout moves and the pullbacks can usually give a solid limit entry with little drawndown. One thing I will try to explain is SL placement and why you should not need to take a full 1R loss, the SL is just a basis for fast market movement that kills you position. That I will go over in the next few posts.

Take Care

RT
  • #6,733
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:03am Oct 19, 2014 6:03am
Quoting Razor_trader
{quote} To take this chart further and hoepfully it will give more insight into how I like to get in on trades, look at the 3 examples that area squared off. 1) you have a Key Reversal bar being the Pin bar that breaks the previous days low, closes above that low and we therefore have a signal. The next bar is a massive bullish bar, that is a breakout candle. What do you notice about the market when it comes back. It pretty much hits the high of the Pin bar, the point of breakout and then runs north. Minimal drawdown. 2) Again, Pin bar reversal...
Great analysis RT but I think we all get obsessed with picking tops and bottoms sometimes, when we should really be focusing on finding trends that have got scope to continue - don't buy into res or sell into support for instance. If a trend is established we don't really need to catch the top or bottom - If it moves 1000 plus pips who cares if we miss the first 100 pips.

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  • #6,734
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:05am Oct 19, 2014 7:05am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Great analysis RT but I think we all get obsessed with picking tops and bottoms sometimes, when we should really be focusing on finding trends that have got scope to continue - don't buy into res or sell into support for instance. If a trend is established we don't really need to catch the top or bottom - If it moves 1000 plus pips who cares if we miss the first 100 pips. {image} {image}

Absolutely without a doubt true. My perspective comes from my trading approach and looking for the best entries. I am new to this thread, but not the idea of long tails and I am still not near enough to the level that allows me to take the long tail approach but I am pushing my boundaries.

The trouble is with looking over history, aswell as back testing without boundaries is that it seems easy enough to do: to look at the broader history and isolate the best places to trade. The trouble is with the live action, withstanding the back and forth of equity swings whilst trying to build both the account balance along with the legs for growth is easier said than done, specifically when you may have built a few legs in one direction and then may not be available to build them on the other side when you need to be. It is a tough game of violent equity swings in the beginning unless of course you manage to be available at the point where a trend begins to grow.

Again going back to the charts, being a weekly chart there are some periods there where it is going to be up and down for a while. Those are the periods, especially if you are coming on board for the first time that will challenge you.

Just doing my best to continue this journey of learning and self discovery.

Thanks for the reply

RT
  • #6,735
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:12am Oct 19, 2014 7:12am
Continuing on from before and this will be the last posts, but I hope they are helpful. If not just tell me to shut up

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So that is a period of about 3 days where there are 4 solid setups, 3 that came back enough to execute the trade, the other just missing.

From here on in I will be aiming to only add the live trades. As I said at the start, if people think it is out of line for this thread then please let me know. I am not here to ambush or do anything that is not in the context of this thread.

Take care and looking forward to the new trading week.

RT
  • #6,736
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:16am Oct 19, 2014 7:16am
Quoting Razor_trader
Continuing on from before and this will be the last posts, but I hope they are helpful. If not just tell me to shut up {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} {image} So that is a period of about 3 days where there are 4 solid setups, 3 that came back enough to execute the trade, the other just missing. From here on in I will be aiming to only add the live trades. As I said at the start, if people think it is out of line for this thread then please let me know. I am not here to ambush or do anything that is not...
Last chart that couldnt upload due to the limit. My bad

Attached Image
  • #6,737
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:16pm Oct 19, 2014 12:16pm
Hi to all,

is there anyone who has the complete Graeme's posts with all the pictures? I went through all the threads and I know that there is a couple of PDFs and zip files, but the PDFs are not with all posts and zip has only links to the original pictures that are already gone. Thanks a lot for your help and thanks to Graeme for all of his hard work, which is really amazing and life changing experience for me, so lets keep it alive!

Thanks
  • #6,738
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:24pm Oct 19, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting danjuma
Hello all. One of the situations that will lead to Graeme diversifying is when not sure what price is doing (price is stalling/in a range). My question is what chart period does he use as reference to determine this - monthly, weekly or daily charts? Many thanks.
Hi danjuma,

I use the following method for diversification:

- when you enter on 5 min. timeframe, I use this timeframe to judge if the position can survive or not and to "diversify" - take partial profits if neccessary and if I am not sure about the position survival

- once the position are "safe" and SL moved to BE I use daily charts to monitor the progress of the positions and decision about diversification

Hope it helps
  • #6,739
  • Oct 19, 2014 3:10pm Oct 19, 2014 3:10pm
Sorry guys. I decided not to share my personal journey in a public space such as this forum. I would have to disclose a whole lot of who I am, my professional step and step progresssion and how I tried to relate all those minor and major successes and obstacles into my world of trading style. All I can say is one has to know your strengths and weaknesses first and then mould or develop a strategy to fit your values, principles and life style. Don't live to trade ....trade to live a better life and make a difference in your life and those around you.
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,740
  • Oct 19, 2014 6:24pm Oct 19, 2014 6:24pm
hello to everyone on this thread.
i have found the first few pages by the author really interesting; however when trying to open his posted charts am having pictures of an owl on the page.
i would like to see the charts if possible before proceding further with the thread to maintain the overall consistency of the original postings.
i'm hoping by posting at the end of the thread here, that somebody will either tell me why they are missing, or point me in the right direction to see them, or share their own originals again.
many thanks to you, and i hope to progress through the thread and catch up to this point and further the discussion with you.
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