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  • #6,701
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:22pm Oct 16, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Perhaps a Chart example gives a clearer picture for those that are confused. I am not a mind reader but I am quite familiar with your focal intepretation involved. Although hindsight tells us the story after it has occured. It could take traders many years to understand what has actually happend and even longer to understand
Hi yonseo,

i have to say "Bravo!" Great analysis! I am very proud of you!
I guess you probably understand now, why i give you the pieces of the puzzle one by one and not my own complete puzzle.
Because you won't learn anything, you won't discover anything and you end up frustrated trying to make it work.

I see now, you took some pieces you collected from my posts, put them together and they clicked.
That is the right approach. I created a screenshot with explanations of how i entered and how i managed my trade.
And i was about to send it to you. But i stopped myself, because i understood that this will destroy your beautiful anaylsis
and gives you only questions and frustration.

Of course if you insist i will share it with you.
This reversal was very imporant and there was more behind it. Actually the price reversed couple of weeks before and this "reversal" was a reaction to the real reversal following our principle of SL hunting and big boys trading.

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i hope i helped

TRD
  • #6,702
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:26pm Oct 16, 2014 5:26pm
Thank you all for your valuable contributions. Some posts I also have to read several times to understand what they are about
When I was talking about inside bars I actually meant engulfing bars, that is in my opinion the easiest bar to spot for a beginner. For these bars I had an EA which was not profitable. Even when I only took engulfing bars in trend direction considering several MAs it was not profitable. It was on the daily timeframe. Maybe on the 4h it works better because you participate in moves earlier and maybe have the luck to be on the wick of a weekly or monthly candle. Together with the millipede approach to let winners run and don't close them it hopefully works. I will post my experience with this approach. What gives me new hope are the results from TRD who showed that they are profitable no matter what trend direction there is when you just let the winners run.
  • #6,703
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:37pm Oct 16, 2014 9:37pm
Yonseo: What a phenomenal breakdown!
  • #6,704
  • Oct 16, 2014 9:47pm Oct 16, 2014 9:47pm
Quoting MCRotter
{quote} I'm not sure if the SNB have the guts to defend the peg... edit - I see ste has other info
The shear volume of Stops and shorts that would likely be accummulating under the peg level would be phenomenal and could pave the way for the biggest stitch up and there are arguments on boths sides for why the SNB will fail to hold the peg and why they can manage the hold the peg. What it means for retail traders could be fireworks if you get involved, and not necessary in a good way.
  • #6,705
  • Edited Oct 17, 2014 12:19am Oct 16, 2014 11:58pm | Edited Oct 17, 2014 12:19am
You learn to laugh when it happens more than once, you really do.......

Closed out the trade from yesterday, set the limit for this break whilst we are in this daily range and must have been 1/2 point

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I really hope once I close this pending order that this market rips a new high, if it goes lower I will be left again just scratching my head :O

RT

EDIT: Zooming out we can see the significant of this level. A break and close below could mean resistance, for now it is holding as some support.

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  • #6,706
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:56am Oct 17, 2014 12:56am
Quoting yonseo
{quote} ...Although hindsight.... .

..... and there is no room for laziness in this game. Every trader much do their own homework ......
Both you and TRD are giving out golden nuggets at no charge so hope folks reading your posts really take it upon themselves to do their own research and think hard about what is being discussed. Although hindsight is good, those who are interested who look at AUDJPY. It is doing exactly what TRD described all of this week....zoom out on daily as see how the support got whipsawed by smart money just before the 400+ drop in DOW. Investigate how the engulfs on H4 were formed around the 94 and 93 levels....up and down saga continued most of this week.

Regarding your comment on laziness, it's an important one too. I will put a spin on it over the weekend with my perspective on how to simplify the tradi g around these extreme levels. You'all may not like what I have to say but working hard does not guarantee success in trading. It will only result in forming ulcers and hammeroid resulting in isolation and depression in the long run as trading is a lonely game only few can endure for decades.

Until then, I have a trivia for those with an open mind:

Is there a way to eliminate RISK with entries DURING consolidation/stalls or ANY entry setup for that matter?

Hint: Risk (to me) is a what-if scenario that 'could' happen and the protection we need to put in place if it happens. Why bother with the past candle (IB, PB, OB etc) and why wait for SL or BE to be taken out by smart money and market makers.

Edit: please pardon the aitocorrects and typos from my smartphone
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,707
  • Edited 1:53am Oct 17, 2014 1:42am | Edited 1:53am
Another related trivia : how do you make a risk free or limited risk entry without using SL or limit/stop hedged orders.if Graeme advocates against predefined entries, why do we have to redefine stop loss during entry at the high/low of candle or whatever. Why do so many threads and strategies advocate putting stop loss at levels for smart money to use us as scapegoats to their benefit in filling large orders as TRD described in his recent post?

One has to QUESTION everything we read/hear when it comes to trading and back every theory with hard facts.

Edit: sorry...cellphone alerts don't count..
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,708
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:11am Oct 17, 2014 2:11am
Another thought to ponder upon...why do we focus on something that happens rarely or selectively on the markets? Why in our search for finding an. Edge only look at things that no one can find? Why can't we just "action the obvious" as Graeme said repeatedly. why aren't we able to milk for certain things that happens all the time. 99% of candles have a wick. 99% of candles have a body less than its range. Price always comes back to moving averages. Oscillators always comes back to the 0 line. Price always comes back to the pivot line.trends happen on a tick chart and every timeframe. There is almost always a retrace from 1cent, 5 cent and 10 cent lines. Breakouts are not just for trend following systems...bounces too can be trend following. Counter trend trading could be part of trend following system. When price can go either up or down,.why do we force ourselves into choosing one over the other? Why do we look in the past when it has no influence on the future. Why do we predict targets when it is just impossible to know which way the candle will close. Why can't we take based on an outcome rather than deliberating and starring at screen for a desired outcome to occur.

Why do we ask what instead of why? Okay..I am getting carried away so I will stop here...lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,709
  • Oct 17, 2014 4:57am Oct 17, 2014 4:57am
Veefx, you make some very good points. This is why I get confused sometimes and don't understand why the 'over analysis' and complications. If we accept 1) we can not predict the market 2)losses are part of the game (business costs), then really what we are looking for are just entries that stand the best chance of reaching BE more times than not and just leave their fate to the market to decide. There is an axiom that goes "trading is simple but not easy". The "simple" I am taking to mean you do not need indicators upon indicators or extensive analysis (fundi and/or techicals) etc, and the "not easy" I take to mean the discipline, psycological and will power to hold positions for as long as possible (I think this is actually the most difficult bit). I have no experience (in short zero experience) of live trading and I fall in the class of a complete newbie. Like most noobs, I have read quite a few threads on this forum and various forums and a few trading books, and Graeme methodology completely resonates with me, and have been reading the pdf (and sometimes the thread) slowly and plan by God's grace to make a success of it, by just following the basic principles and KISS. May be in a year or two I might fall into the same trap as well and start over analysing and complicating things, I do not know. However for now, what I am aiming for is just find a couple of 'easy' entry methods that I have complete faith in and just build positions, stack, diversify, hold, and see what the market decides to give me back (or take).
  • #6,710
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:38am Oct 17, 2014 5:38am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Hi yonseo, i have to say "Bravo!" Great analysis! I am very proud of you! I guess you probably understand now, why i give you the pieces of the puzzle one by one and not my own complete puzzle. Because you won't learn anything, you won't discover anything and you end up frustrated trying to make it work. I see now, you took some pieces you collected from my posts, put them together and they clicked. That is the right approach. I created a screenshot with explanations of how i entered and how i managed my trade. And i was about...
I do think we try to make this too complicated sometimes so I had a closer look at the charts you posted - (ain't hindsight wonderful) and if you zoom out on the weekly chart things become a lot clearer, to me anyway.

You can see that from 2000 - price reached a similar extreme and turned after some nice PA that would have garnered over 1000 pips on 3 separate occasions, giving the opportunity to build our millipede.

I like to keep things simple too.

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  • #6,711
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:25am Oct 17, 2014 8:25am
Quoting TheRealDeal
{quote} Hi yonseo, i have to say "Bravo!" Great analysis! I am very proud of you! I guess you probably understand now, why i give you the pieces of the puzzle one by one and not my own complete puzzle. Because you won't ... i hope i helped TRD
This is one of the reasons why Graeme insisted in keeping interest in both directions.Great analysis.DV
  • #6,712
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:54am Oct 17, 2014 8:54am
Indeed trading is simple and making money is equally hard and can be extremely frustrating for those who just try the wash / rinse / repeat aproach to markets. This is my perspective only so others might differ. To me, price interpretation and behavioural analysis is extremely important to understand the reasons behind any movement. The understanding of macro and micro market structures are super critical to minimize frustrations of the never ending up and down movements . What TRD has described sooooooooo eloquently is crucial to participate in the markets. Pre-session behavioural patterns , 3rd H4 candle, why pinbars and pennants are formed etc can be value added tools for traders to minimize frustrations. Market research should be never ending as the more you watch price, the more clarity it brings. It's like training a puppy. It order to train your dog, you have to first watch, listen and understand his behaviour first. There are tell-tale signs to guide you when he will poop or per.....same concepts apply to driving , trading etc
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,713
  • Oct 17, 2014 10:21am Oct 17, 2014 10:21am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} I do think we try to make this too complicated sometimes so I had a closer look at the charts you posted - (ain't hindsight wonderful) and if you zoom out on the weekly chart things become a lot clearer, to me anyway. You can see that from 2000 - price reached a similar extreme and turned after some nice PA that would have garnered over 1000 pips on 3 separate occasions, giving the opportunity to build our millipede. I like to keep things simple too. {image}
I think its imperative to take a zoom out when planning your week and isolate where the market is and what it is doing. The trouble with drawing conclusions for the weekly charts is that anytime you have 4-5 bars close together like within those regions you have highlighted is that, particularly when you are looking at a methodology like the Millipede, those 4-5 ranging candles represent 4-5 weeks and a very tough period at that.

If you go back to the video on Joel you can see similar times throughout the year/s where those ranges test the patience of those who are not prepared. Logically we don't take an trade on the hourly and go alright its going to go there, especially after a number of BE or slight win/loss trades. Very few people have the knack for allowing great entries to grow and that is exacerbated during those range periods which effectively kill off traders.

How many threads and traders here got from system to system, looking for that devine trading method that allows them to take unlimited risk with no effort and returns 100% or more weekly with no losses. Its all to common.

What I love about this thread is exactly what made me fall in love with DIB's: The idea is simple, the method can be defined and you can, if you put the time in, come up with entries that fit your personality. There is some great input here which helps keep the idea alive by bouncing ideas from 1 another.

Have a safe weekend

RT
  • #6,714
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:27pm Oct 17, 2014 12:27pm
Learned many skills from PipEasy in this thread. One of the best on FF.
ForexOrderFlow.com Return This Year: 14.0%
  • #6,715
  • Oct 17, 2014 12:30pm Oct 17, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting VEEFX
Another thought to ponder upon...why do we focus on something that happens rarely or selectively on the markets? Why in our search for finding an. Edge only look at things that no one can find? Why can't we just "action the obvious" as Graeme said repeatedly. why aren't we able to milk for certain things that happens all the time. 99% of candles have a wick. 99% of candles have a body less than its range. Price always comes back to moving averages. Oscillators always comes back to the 0 line. Price always comes back to the pivot line.trends happen...
@VEEFX - These posts are very critical and I would advise all here to not skip them, I will try to post some charts briefly that will be a start to warm up that discussion regarding the queries raised by VEEFX which is really important to this business:

This is an EU experimental test from 1/1/13 to 10/1/14, the period is shown on two pictures and the second one has the equity/balance curve versus a start of $5k.
Does this way limit the risk ? let us discuss intensively
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  • #6,716
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:14pm Oct 17, 2014 2:14pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Perhaps a Chart example gives a clearer picture for those that are confused. I am not a mind reader but I am quite familiar with your focal intepretation involved. Although hindsight tells us the story after it has occured. It could take traders many years to understand what has actually happend and even longer to understand what could be happening at the time. I will discuss your OTHER surviving probes as time allows. Feel free to point it out if I misunderstood what you were thinking at the time. But I believe it may be a good idea to...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1413473547

How can one know that the big bar with the first blue circle will really break through? One had to place a pending buy order there but how can you know that it will break through and not will be just one more bar with a long wick at the end as the bars next on the left? Even if it breaks through the next bar could reverse as it already happened again with the bars further left. They already broke through that inside bars and then later other bars went down again.
The second blue circle I can also not understand. If in that place in a lower timeframe there is a reversal signal such as an engulfing patter on the 4h maybe then I can understand that. But if not it could just be an intraday reversal of that long bearish bar and then later in the day head further down.
Could someone please explain how these situations, that I personally would not dare to take, can be foreseen?
  • #6,717
  • Oct 17, 2014 3:02pm Oct 17, 2014 3:02pm
Just like TRD described hedge funds positioning long trades on AUDJPY.....down/up/down/up/down/up...600million worth of long positions deployed. Retail Traders got screwed...institutional traders took some profits from shorts and positioned themselves and their clients for long term swap generating legs. Weekly targets/bonus sccomplished. Time to enjoy the weekend. That is how smart money operates.....scaling in to build large positions as apparent from the COT report.we CAN operate our own institutional hedge fund with this hindsight and hard core mindset with practice, practice, practice.....anyone recall 3x20 exercise :-)

TRADE SMALL POSITION SIZE .......any position size over 2x your account balance is over-extending for this style of position building imho.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8kb...p=docslist_api
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,718
  • Oct 17, 2014 5:28pm Oct 17, 2014 5:28pm
There are only two low risk entries imho available with highest level of survivability: volatily breakouts and retraces from trapped retailer zones

Volatility breakouts: IBs (pennants, consolidation) breakouts
Retraces from trapped retailer zones: Engulfing Pattern retraces

That's it. So lets end the entries discussion here and start practice them!

The most profitable entry methods are hidden. Because they are impossible to backtest and hardest to trade.
Only these we want to trade!

Have you seen a black swan?


TRD
  • #6,719
  • Oct 17, 2014 6:03pm Oct 17, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting TheRealDeal
There are only two low risk entries imho available with highest level of survivability: volatily breakouts and retraces from trapped retailer zones Volatility breakouts: IBs (pennants, consolidation) breakouts Retraces from trapped retailer zones: Engulfing Pattern retraces That's it. So lets end the entries discussion here and start practice them! The most profitable entry methods are hidden. Because they are impossible to backtest and hardest to trade. Only these we want to trade! Have you seen a black swan?...
Totally agree TRD - and I don't really need to know why they happen - just that they do.

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  • #6,720
  • Oct 18, 2014 2:56am Oct 18, 2014 2:56am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote}Is there a way to eliminate RISK with entries DURING consolidation/stalls or ANY entry setup for that matter?
Sure there is. Trade off a DEMO account. LOL
I'm sure there are quite a few in forums that actually use demo charts to self promote.

To me RISK is how much you can potentially lose. Since you have to pay spread per entry, initial loss is guarenteed the moment you decide to enter a trade.
This means risk is always there regardless of how you enter, unless you have a method where it is 100% certain that the price moves at least in your direction to cover the spread for that pair.

If a trader claims to have such method, then he/she should be the richest man in the world.
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