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How to determine the Trend

  • #21
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:33am Nov 19, 2008 7:33am
Haven't posted in a while, because this site got blocked from work But I am home today.

I don't think determining the trend is the question. As a swing / trend trader, what I want to know is how to determine when the daily / weekly trend is CHANGING. Becuase it doesn't do this very often when it does it changes the general direction we are going for maybe a month or more.

For myself, I use a volatility measure, and then require that the pair go beyond a certain percentage of that volatility. Example: on a weekly trade, it must go above / below 30% of the last 5 week's average range, starting from the open. At that point, we have a potential direction to trade in which is not likely to be range-bound. I might also factor in the weekly trend ( left to right on the chart as CTGUY says ) and ignore trades that are in the wrong direction.

I also agree, the original post could have been titled and worded better.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #22
  • Sep 22, 2013 4:49am Sep 22, 2013 4:49am
Quoting CTGUY
Look at 1H, 4H or higher time frames on one chart. Look at price on left side of chart and then look at last price on right side. Draw a line or use your eyes to determine what direction trend is going. Look at examples given... it's that simple my friend. {image} {image}
if i have same signal in 4 time frame entry is that simple ? it works can someone confirme in experience taken ?
Scalping
  • #23
  • Sep 22, 2013 5:00am Sep 22, 2013 5:00am
Very good question because the mistake of most traders, inculding myself, is to jump into a position thinking a trend is about to occur without getting proper confirmation. Sometimes it takes hours, if not days, to confirm if a trend is in place. Sometimes jumping in early works, and sometimes it doesn't.
  • #24
  • Sep 22, 2013 5:08am Sep 22, 2013 5:08am
Quoting guguxpto
{quote} if i have same signal in 4 time frame entry is that simple ? it works can someone confirme in experience taken ?
I can state unequivocally that the higher the timeframe, the more reliable the confirmation. However, there is nothing more agonizing than waiting for a 8 hour bar to confirm, when you know you are right in hour 1. Nothing!
  • #25
  • Sep 22, 2013 5:39am Sep 22, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Troikaone1
Very good question because the mistake of most traders, inculding myself, is to jump into a position thinking a trend is about to occur without getting proper confirmation. Sometimes it takes hours, if not days, to confirm if a trend is in place. Sometimes jumping in early works, and sometimes it doesn't.
thanks for the reply can you live of trading can you give to me same tip´s more what doyou use oscilator ma or just price action
Scalping
  • #26
  • Sep 22, 2013 5:57am Sep 22, 2013 5:57am
Quoting guguxpto
{quote} thanks for the reply can you live of trading can you give to me same tip´s more what doyou use oscilator ma or just price action
I'm not a big fan of oscillators, MACD, etc. It's all about price action. There are certain patterns that repeat themselves over and over again. What makes traders look absolutely foolish is when Fundamentals (economic news) clashes with their Technical set ups. When this type of war takes place, the only thing that can save you is your money management rules. Yes, a certain setup will work 80% of the time and you can make profit, but that 20% of the time when it doesn't work can drain your account; simple as that. As I always say, charts are not mathematical equations that you can backtest and somehow understand with the press of a button; which is why I am not a big fan of technical indicators. That's why you have to study lots and lots of charts. Just follow the trend.
  • #27
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:14am Sep 22, 2013 6:14am
Quoting Troikaone1
{quote} I'm not a big fan of oscillators, MACD, etc. It's all about price action. There are certain patterns that repeat themselves over and over again. What makes traders look absolutely foolish is when Fundamentals (economic news) clashes with their Technical set ups. When this type of war takes place, the only thing that can save you is your money management rules. Yes, a certain setup will work 80% of the time and you can make profit, but that 20% of the time when it doesn't work can drain your account; simple as that. As I always say, charts...
i´m loking for 2 eyars on a strategy maney manegement is crucial but i´m getting the idear of mtf 1 day to trente then 4h 1h to 30min loking for flags triangles an other patents thas consolidate the trent is this you talking
Scalping
  • #28
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:25am Sep 22, 2013 6:25am
Quoting guguxpto
{quote} i´m loking for 2 eyars on a strategy maney manegement is crucial but i´m getting the idear of mtf 1 day to trente then 4h 1h to 30min loking for flags triangles an other patents thas consolidate the trent is this you talking
Flags and triangles are univesally understood.......much less ambiguous than an oscillator.....IMHO!
  • #29
  • Sep 22, 2013 6:37am Sep 22, 2013 6:37am
Quoting Troikaone1
{quote} Flags and triangles are univesally understood.......much less ambiguous than an oscillator.....IMHO!
do you trade everything or just a some actives
Scalping
  • #30
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:07am Sep 22, 2013 7:07am
The first step in determining the trend is to check the Daily charts of each currency pair, and look for the strongest trend in either direction.
  • #31
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:12am Sep 22, 2013 7:12am
Quoting ElComandante
The first step in determining the trend is to check the Daily charts of each currency pair, and look for the strongest trend in either direction.
ok that part is giveng me edge da problem for me is were to enter how to determinate in a strong bull the low and how can i desting the low or reverse ? just whit trent lines
Scalping
  • #32
  • Sep 22, 2013 10:39am Sep 22, 2013 10:39am
Quoting guguxpto
{quote} ok that part is giveng me edge da problem for me is were to enter how to determinate in a strong bull the low and how can i desting the low or reverse ? just whit trent lines
guguzpto.....this forum is a place to enertain yourself and get a general idea of what works. A trader would be foolish to just hand out every minute detail of how he trades. You'd have to pay someone to get every minute detail that you are looking for. In a nutshell, you'll have to lower your expectations a bit. Just have fun and enjoy the various generalities of how to trade.
  • #33
  • Oct 5, 2014 8:18am Oct 5, 2014 8:18am
as much a people hate looking at higher time frames the only way to know trend is to look at higher time frames.so folks lets teach ourselves to look at higher time frames and spot trend forming
  • #34
  • Oct 5, 2014 10:35am Oct 5, 2014 10:35am
This is an old thread. Therefore I will not say much, but I was looking for a place to dump this chart anyways.
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  • #35
  • Oct 5, 2014 10:48am Oct 5, 2014 10:48am
i use price action highs and lows and new highs and lows that how you can determined it easily looking at many time frame
all have a nice day
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #36
  • Last Post: Oct 5, 2014 1:20pm Oct 5, 2014 1:20pm
I think we can not talk about the trend (singular), but trends (plural).

The market is fractal, is not linear. The higher fractal dominates on the lower fractal. In each category we find fractal trends at their grade level.
For example, if the concept of fractal liken the concept of timeframe, we see that we can find trends, even reverse, depending on which
timeframe in use to see the waves formed by candles.

In any case, I abide by the following rule to establish a trend: A trend begins with a reverse pattern, and finished with a reverse pattern,
that is the same grade.
The difficulty is that sometimes these patterns we can escape, or that do not have clear what we are fractal.
Naturally, I assume that a trend has (unless there is a failure in the last wave) with three impulsive waves separated by two corrective
waves.

For all this, we must make a multitimeframe analysis to determine where we are, so we can make decisions during corrections, or during
reverse patterns.

The rest is practice, practice and practice until you get to distinguish a correction against a reverse pattern, that is, in my opinion, our biggest problem.
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