How can l determine the real trend on a longer time frame

Hi,pls how can l determine the actual trend in a longer time frame eg 1hr chart

There will be loads of answers, but before anything else, try zooming out

Yes, one way is to zoom out like PeterFM said, also look for price making higher highs for an uptrend and lower lows for a down trend.

Our names are very similar peterFM.. sorry about that.. I didn't realize there was another peter when I joined!

Don't apologise, as a name it's hardly a rarity is it?

aahhh.....the two very kind and helpful Peters........

I'm a newbie, apparently, so my views don't count.
Anyway, let's help this guy out, and find the trend.

Next stage is to decide the context of your trade. If you purely trade the 1hr chart, with no overall reference point, you find yourself trading against the majority. This is not to say you can't make money on a 1hr chart, or by trading against the dominant trend, but it's all about the difference in risk.

If you'd traded long USDCAD without realising that the 1 hr trend COULD turn at any time, you increase your risk. If you waited to find an opportunity to short the USDCAD to trade with the dominant trend your risk (in theory) is reduced.

But. as always, it's different strokes for different folks.

you're too humble.........by the way, i trade breakouts from continuation patterns so am i doing anything wrong if i can't find any good set-ups on the higher timeframes , i'll go down to the 1hr timeframe to find any opportunities ?

of course the profit potential will be lower............

Just draw a arrow in direction where price has been moving..

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/2711/arrowyv9.png

Very true :-)

sometimes i try to see the slope, when it change it means the pressure is accumulated or released. if the degree is too steep and the news is not that big, i trade retracement, but when the news is big, but the market delay the response, i follow the news, usually news is the turn point of the trend. it may come in gradation too

Good explanation!. Now, all you need to do is figure out when
it precisly will turn! then you will be a trader!

nahh - just trade the way it's going - much better than guessing when its going to turn.

I think the most accepted view I see so far is the slope of the chart to decide the trend. With a well managed risk/position sizing, it is just a matter of waiting time till it turns green. Of course you have to learn to watch the drawdown and handle your emotions.
From my observations and studies from various systems from various forums ( forextsd, Fisherman and of course our FF ) I saw that the % of successful systems are those that trade in the direction of the major trend.
Some base their trend direction by using osciilators. Quite successful!! Example MTF stochhastic. When weekly, daily H4 and H1 are up, just get into the trend by entering when the lower TF crosses up from below 20 level or rebounce up from 50 level. There you go for the ride.
The same priciple with mtf CCI. Also very succesful !! This is for me an indicator which is more trend reliable.
Same for MTF Moving Average. Another popular success !!
You can use ema62 / 100 /150 / 200 as your trend mark.
Say if you use ema62, put this MA on all TF. Weekly to M5. When price is above ema62 in all TF, you know that the trend is up. When price reaches the ema62 on lower TF chart, see that it rebounces and you are riding up with the trend. ( an example is the cornflour thread )
You can also use the MTF shi channel. There you can also have the trend drawn on all TF.
As long as your system is created with this principle in mind, your system should score high success.
Let me say that it is not the entry that is going to make you the BIG pips. It is the exits !!! ( Another chapter )
For my own, I have created a a small signal bar that is displayed with CCI, stochastic and ema of all TF on the top right corner of my chart. When they are green, or red altogether, I am watching for a trade entry.
An example, I trade Jim's PA with the daily and weekly stoch. When a PA pattern appear, I take trades only in the direction which both stoch TF points - in the same direction. At the point where Jim proposed the entry, I look to the lower stoch TF to confirm the entry. Trading the pullback on the various MA's I watch the lower stoch TF too.

Lastly my long breakout trades if taken when my signal bars all turn green, I had also a greater probability. If it is not broken on first attempt, it is just likely to follow through on the second or third.

Could you point me in the right direction for where I might learn to do something like that Highway?

good post btw

I will PM you the link. There you can ask the members to twix it to how you want it. It could be with mtf momentum, mtf rsi etc.. all in one display bar. Mine I had to reprogram it myself to my taste using their standard formular of programing bars.

Thanks Highway

Found an indicator called FerruFx_Multi_info+_v1.2.mq4 at the link you sent that looks like it might suit me.