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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #389,121
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:29pm Jul 26, 2014 3:29pm
Final note for the weekend, usdcad gathered strength on Friday, I shall be entering a long for a take profit of 1.1150. I'm doing this based on fundamentals, because as stated the dollar strengthens because the end of QE and the hint of a interest rate rise by the Fed. In addition the US dollar to the Canadian Dollar is at very low level at the moment and this has the potential to hurt the Canadian economy.
Peace & Pips
  • #389,122
  • Edited 4:46pm Jul 26, 2014 4:32pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting Bones
usd is not in a downtrend that tl won't hold , {quote}
Funny, that all you saw was the TL in that chart

It's easy to draw what we want to see. The month isn't over, big USD data coming. Let's see what happens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bones.png Size: 31 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,123
  • Edited 5:13pm Jul 26, 2014 5:00pm | Edited 5:13pm
well Chris the other stuff means nothing to me ,I like fibs but don't use
I prefer just to read price
but I would say like you highlight this chart is sideways on monthly coming off bottom range ,and price sits over the bearish candle now
the bearish candle is consolidation thats all
nearly 50 pips over big RN ,

Quoting albchr
{quote} Funny, that all you saw was the TL in that chart It's easy to draw what we want to see. The month isn't over, big USD data coming. Let's see what happens. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd CHF d1 (DFB).png Size: 34 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,124
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:19pm Jul 26, 2014 5:19pm
Quoting Bones
well Chris the other stuff means nothing to me ,I like fibs but don't use I prefer just to read price but I would say like you highlight this chart is sideways on monthly coming off bottom range ,and price sits over the bearish candle now the bearish candle is consolidation thats all {quote}
I agree 100% Tony, Price is the only indicator that matters and what I base 95% of my views on. If the other "stuff" means nothing to you, then apparently SR holds no value.

So I would ask, what does a TL represent to you? Why are they so important?

To me, a TL is just another form of SR. And perhaps the weakest of all if not combined with other, more reliable SR. Like horizontal or....Fibs

I also agree the dollar has been sideways for some time now. That in itself means it could go either way in a heartbeat. Unless the coming data is just shinning bright green (whether based on reality or not...lol), I see the present course holding.

Hey buddy, I'm shorting GU on every rise now so obviously I "want" a strong dollar. But what you or I want is irrelevant.

USD weekly. Up against a rather hard wall to me. Coming data could smash it...or not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDLFXWeekly.png Size: 46 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,125
  • Jul 26, 2014 5:44pm Jul 26, 2014 5:44pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} I agree 100% Tony, Price is the only indicator that matters and what I base 95% of my views on. If the other "stuff" means nothing to you, then apparently SR holds no value. So I would ask, what does a TL represent to you? Why are they so important? To me, a TL is just another form of SR. And perhaps the weakest of all if not combined with other, more reliable SR. Like horizontal or....Fibs I also agree the dollar has been sideways for some time now. That in itself means it could go either way in a heartbeat. Unless the coming data is...
I am not one to question anyone trading philosophy... but may I ask why you sell on a rise knowing that the trend is down or visa-versa, why wouldn't you just hold the position from a certain level and close the position at a certain level. I am just curios.
Peace & Pips
  • #389,126
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:08pm Jul 26, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting YardiFX
{quote} I am not one to question anyone trading philosophy... but may I ask why you sell on a rise knowing that the trend is down or visa-versa, why wouldn't you just hold the position from a certain level and close the position at a certain level. I am just curios.
Hi YardiFX

It's simply because I have a very small account I'm trying to build as quickly and safely as possible. As such, I sort of have to day trade. To hold a position over longer distances means having to risk more than is wise for me on the initial position. That "may" work out if there were no market surprises over the time held. But to position wisely % wise, and wait a long time for even say 100 pips or more yields very little in the end compared to entering and exiting more often. At least it does for me.

One could wait days for say a 200 pip move. If that means a 2% to 5% gain over a week, that's great. It would not do so for me. Sadly, I'm caught between worlds. The mindset and market view of a position trader, with the account of a day trader / scalper.... LOL Fortunately though, I can do either.

And "technically", we really are still in an overall uptrend on GU and as of now, trading shorts only on a retracement in my view. If and when we reach and break certain levels I've posted many times here, then I can say the trend has likely changed.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,127
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:38pm Jul 26, 2014 6:38pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Hi YardiFX It's simply because I have a very small account I'm trying to build as quickly and safely as possible. As such, I sort of have to day trade. To hold a position over longer distances means having to risk more than is wise for me on the initial position. That "may" work out if there were no market surprises over the time held. But to position wisely % wise, and wait a long time for even say 100 pips or more yields very little in the end compared to entering and exiting more often. At least it does for me. One could wait days...
Fair enough, thank you for your candid explanation, I hope one day your able to cross over to a positional trading style.... but until then trade carefully in the day... but keep one eye on what HDA says... he seems to have his head screwed on the right way up.

Being a positional trader does not have same adrenalin rush as a intra day trader .....but its comforting to pull in 600 to 800 pips a month by simply picking the right levels and waiting. Any ho... good luck in your trading endeavours
Peace & Pips
  • #389,128
  • Jul 26, 2014 6:56pm Jul 26, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting YardiFX
{quote} Fair enough, thank you for your candid explanation, I hope one day your able to cross over to a positional trading style.... but until then trade carefully in the day... but keep one eye on what HDA says... he seems to have his head screwed on the right way up. Being a positional trader does not have same adrenalin rush as a intra day trader .....but its comforting to pull in 600 to 800 pips a month by simply picking the right levels and waiting. Any ho... good luck in your trading endeavours
Thank you sir, I shall do so and I'm sure one day I will. I do hold longer trades as well but, in this low activity market lately, not as often as I'd like. I'm pretty sure HDA is well aware of my thoughts regarding him and his trading.

Best wishes and enjoy the weekend.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,129
  • Jul 26, 2014 9:36pm Jul 26, 2014 9:36pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} Funny, that all you saw was the TL in that chart It's easy to draw what we want to see. The month isn't over, big USD data coming. Let's see what happens. {image}
Sadly, this chart makes perfect sense to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFDaily726.jpg Size: 227 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #389,130
  • Jul 26, 2014 11:05pm Jul 26, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting Bones
consider the monthlies here there is simply no way of knowing whats coming and why ,but a chart only shows winners {image}
chart is naked...
  • #389,131
  • Jul 27, 2014 12:18am Jul 27, 2014 12:18am
Quoting albchr
{quote} The FOMC is important but I'm more concerned with the GDP numbers. After last month's reality, are we really expecting a +3.1% now? If it comes through like that it's the biggest whooper they've told in some time. If it doesn't then it disappoints. I'm no fundie guy and don't pretend to be but....either way it could throw the market into a real turmoil. {image}
I also don't think it is achievable. Technical is more strong than the fundamental. But you are right. we will get a great direction from this. Also from FOMC there is no speech this time so I think this will not be so good for USD.
  • #389,132
  • Edited 12:38am Jul 27, 2014 12:27am | Edited 12:38am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Cable may fall to 1.65 but not 1.48 I suggest place simple 200 moving average and look at it on weekly/daily chart.This will give you clue how Banks operate. Institutions place great importance on 200MA Trend is UP no question about it.I have better template to illustrate this more Notice how strong trend is.Darker lines are slower MA's {image}
I do agree technically Cable is on a temporary decline trying to complete the C leg of a running correction (where wave c=a usually), before further advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily 05.png Size: 39 KB

Looking at the minor waves, it's going down very much on impulsive mode towards 1.6800 or more. I've to exit my longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 04.png Size: 34 KB
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #389,133
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:27am Jul 27, 2014 1:27am
I like it Scott ,I think your right

Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Sadly, this chart makes perfect sense to me. {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,134
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:30am Jul 27, 2014 1:30am
unfortunately Hda is on vacation ,I have no idea what parole is like in his country

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post7629105

Quoting YardiFX
{quote} Fair enough, thank you for your candid explanation, I hope one day your able to cross over to a positional trading style.... but until then trade carefully in the day... but keep one eye on what HDA says... he seems to have his head screwed on the right way up. Being a positional trader does not have same adrenalin rush as a intra day trader .....but its comforting to pull in 600 to 800 pips a month by simply picking the right levels and waiting. Any ho... good luck in your trading endeavours
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,135
  • Edited 1:51am Jul 27, 2014 1:40am | Edited 1:51am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Sadly, this chart makes perfect sense to me. {image}
Why would that be sadly Scott? Looks fine to me.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,136
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:41am Jul 27, 2014 1:41am
Quoting Bones
unfortunately Hda is on vacation ,I have no idea what parole is like in his country http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post7629105 {quote}
Just can't leave it alone ...eh bones?
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,137
  • Jul 27, 2014 1:52am Jul 27, 2014 1:52am
its a joke Chris
big thing everyone wants to be a position trader ,everyone thinks you can't be with a small account etc ,
big misconception ,
I have starting seeing amazing low risk 10-40 pips ,high probability trades ,on bigger tfs ,ones that once taken its hold ,then add ,thats how to make a lot of money

Quoting albchr
{quote} Just can't leave it alone ...eh bones?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,138
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:00am Jul 27, 2014 2:00am
take this one on monthly or eu ,if you went long on the first day of the month ,how much would it have gone against you

Quoting Bones
consider the monthlies here there is simply no way of knowing whats coming and why ,but a chart only shows winners {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,139
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:07am Jul 27, 2014 2:07am
lets see how this close
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp JPY monthly (DFB).png Size: 21 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,140
  • Jul 27, 2014 2:11am Jul 27, 2014 2:11am
but do you think I should accept a multiple user name liar just because you do ?

Quoting albchr
{quote} Just can't leave it alone ...eh bones?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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