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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #389,101
  • Jul 26, 2014 12:41pm Jul 26, 2014 12:41pm
To all, we must not forget the reason why the pound is at the level it is at the moment. Mr carney said something about interest rates that he wasn't authorised to do and now he has been made to back track on those comments because the pound is too high and the effect of such a strong pound could start to impact on exports.

Where we are now has nothing to do with technical analysis. Thus I will continue to hold shorts and I will not close any until the natural level of the pound is reached which is @1.6850. Anyone that is long at these levels should just consider it a short term trade. The fundamentals do not support 1.7xx.

The new Zealand policy makers had to intervene to stop nzd appreciating so much because the fundamentals do not support its current levels, which is what we are seeing in the pound. I am also holding long term short on nzdusd until it gets back to its natural level of 0.8450.

Just remember "in trading both the Turtle and the Hare wins"
Peace & Pips
  • #389,102
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:13pm Jul 26, 2014 1:13pm
Quoting YardiFX
The new Zealand policy makers had to intervene to stop nzd appreciating so much because the fundamentals do not support its current levels, which is what we are seeing in the pound. I am also holding long term short on nzdusd until it gets back to its natural level of 0.8450..
Did I miss something? To my knowledge NU dived not because of intervention of RBNZ but market bailing out on statements from Bank that this will be last hike for rest of the year and who wants to hang on 6months of currency on weak fundamentals.In short it was priced in.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,103
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:17pm Jul 26, 2014 1:17pm
Hi everybody.

have a question to traders with history experience, i mean who trade more then 2 years and remember how things occured years ago.
I have only one year of experience so please give your advise..

cable had a run from 148 to 172, based inclusively on fundamentals: constant increasing good cable news and bad us news.

looking on weekly TF cable is moving within this area or higher/lower.

question: why would cable fall to 165-148 area if fundametals are doing better or the same and usd is still weak?
No emotions, just trade
  • #389,104
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:32pm Jul 26, 2014 1:32pm
Quoting Janut
Hi everybody. have a question to traders with history experience, i mean who trade more then 2 years and remember how things occured years ago. I have only one year of experience so please give your advise.. cable had a run from 148 to 172, based inclusively on fundamentals: constant increasing good cable news and bad us news. looking on weekly TF cable is moving within this area or higher/lower. question: why would cable fall to 165-148 area if fundametals are doing better or the same and usd is still weak?
Cable may fall to 1.65 but not 1.48
I suggest place simple 200 moving average and look at it on weekly/daily chart.This will give you clue how Banks operate. Institutions place great importance on 200MA
Trend is UP no question about it.I have better template to illustrate this more
Notice how strong trend is.Darker lines are slower MA's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.Weekly.png Size: 47 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,105
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:36pm Jul 26, 2014 1:36pm
This is more obvious on my system
On weekly chart RSI and WR% never went below 50 since June of 2013
Notice close to 50 line there were always strong buyers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.Weekly.png Size: 48 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,106
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:37pm Jul 26, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Cable may fall to 1.65 but not 1.48 I suggest place simple 200 moving average and look at it on weekly/daily chart.This will give you clue how Banks operate. Institutions place great importance on 200MA Trend is UP no question about it.I have better template to illustrate this more Notice how strong trend is.Darker lines are slower MA's {image}
Thanks Davit.

in conclusion no hard move downstairs yet. Time and news will show.

I use 100 ma, it just works fine on d1 as lower trendline. Wait to see 169 and PA at this level.

good luck!!!!
No emotions, just trade
  • #389,107
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:43pm Jul 26, 2014 1:43pm
Hi what makes you say $ is weak ?

Quoting Janut
Hi everybody. have a question to traders with history experience, i mean who trade more then 2 years and remember how things occured years ago. I have only one year of experience so please give your advise.. cable had a run from 148 to 172, based inclusively on fundamentals: constant increasing good cable news and bad us news. looking on weekly TF cable is moving within this area or higher/lower. question: why would cable fall to 165-148 area if fundametals are doing better or the same and usd is still weak?
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,108
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:48pm Jul 26, 2014 1:48pm
did you see Usd Cad or Eur Usd , in fact the $ has nice build up here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfxweekly 26-july.png Size: 33 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,109
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:50pm Jul 26, 2014 1:50pm
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
  • #389,110
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:56pm Jul 26, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting Bones
Hi what makes you say $ is weak ? {quote}
Hi Bones
To me trend is like physics its going on its inertia unless external force strong enough to change.
There is not yet any strong external force to suggest USD is getting strong.In fact last GDP was pathetic. Next one is coming at 30th July but not gonna be miracles.What we are seeing is typical Harmonic corrections
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #389,111
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:58pm Jul 26, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting HDA
1.6919 -JimmyC's take Profit - coming up Patience & It's Not That Easy HDA OUT
Hi HDA, i really like your trading style. one of the few i admire on FF. GBPUSD looks good to test 1.6900, however a divergence and confirmed break above 1.6970 (happened already on one time frame, a second will confirm) may limit this downward move to 1.6950. Goodluck!
  • #389,112
  • Jul 26, 2014 1:58pm Jul 26, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting Bones
did you see Usd Cad or Eur Usd , in fact the $ has nice build up here {image}

I mean weak in front of cable (us showed bad fundamentals for months, cable viceversa) . Eur in my vision is the weakest.
Cable strong,usd normal, eur weak.

i dont argue, this is my opinion.
No emotions, just trade
  • #389,113
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:12pm Jul 26, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting Bones
Hi what makes you say $ is weak ? {quote}
....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDLFXMonthly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPLFXMonthly.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURLFXMonthly.png Size: 34 KB
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,114
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:26pm Jul 26, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting Ken A
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
Attached Image

..........................................
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #389,115
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:44pm Jul 26, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting albchr
{quote} {image} ..........................................
sweet ..
  • #389,116
  • Jul 26, 2014 2:50pm Jul 26, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Did I miss something? To my knowledge NU dived not because of intervention of RBNZ but market bailing out on statements from Bank that this will be last hike for rest of the year and who wants to hang on 6months of currency on weak fundamentals.In short it was priced in.
I'm sorry, but it was not priced in most economists expected a greater rate rise. The the statement that was made following the rate announcement is an intervention, because there was mummers from New Zealand that the currency was and is over valued. Let's not argue I'm just stating that it is fundamentals that is primarily driving both currencies.
Peace & Pips
  • #389,117
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:03pm Jul 26, 2014 3:03pm
usd is not in a downtrend


that tl won't hold ,

Quoting albchr
{quote} .... {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,118
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:05pm Jul 26, 2014 3:05pm
D the chart speaks for itself ,it has already had a bullish month ,,and weekly looks sweet to my eye

Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Bones To me trend is like physics its going on its inertia unless external force strong enough to change. There is not yet any strong external force to suggest USD is getting strong.In fact last GDP was pathetic. Next one is coming at 30th July but not gonna be miracles.What we are seeing is typical Harmonic corrections Regards
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,119
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:09pm Jul 26, 2014 3:09pm
consider the monthlies here
there is simply no way of knowing whats coming and why ,but a chart only shows winners
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd CHF monthly (DFB).png Size: 22 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #389,120
  • Jul 26, 2014 3:13pm Jul 26, 2014 3:13pm
either you can recognise beauty or your blind as a bat

Quoting Ken A
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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