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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #381,901
  • Jun 13, 2014 10:42pm Jun 13, 2014 10:42pm
Did Carney say "will"?
or "might"?

some heard WILL, I heard MIGHT

I might be wrong..

I remember mid last year when Ben said MIGHT, but many heard WILL

man THAT was expensive for some....
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #381,902
  • Edited 11:06pm Jun 13, 2014 10:55pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looking at 6863 or lower as a possible L entry. atm its probably bouncing from R (6995 ish). i will probably not trade 6863 and wait for 6643/6464 and target 7173 or more. after 7173 i will look for a indication of a drop to short. if am wrong about 6643, that's ok, i have no position. i have waited for 6643 since april to long. above 6995 is 7017. i may take a shot at a short there if all looks right for a few or more
EG is ready to bounce, up to 0.8150 or even 0.8200.

here is a table for EG ------> 0.815 (G=E/0.815)
euro, | cable
1.3900 | 1.7055
1.3800 | 1.6933
1.3700 | 1.6810
1.3600 | 1.6687

and table for EG --------> 0.82
euro | cable
1.3900 | 1.6951
1.3800 | 1.6829
1.3700 | 1.6707
1.3600 | 1.6585

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EG- i7860-TDA_262.png Size: 265 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #381,903
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:11pm Jun 13, 2014 11:11pm
Quoting JimmyC
I see that today was a little quiet after all last nights excitement. Some of the chatter I picked up didn't make any sense lets explain why. Punter says Cable can't go above 1.705 unless EUR at 1.4 or above. First we're trading Cable and the market can do anything its like saying the pound can't go above 2 unless aliens land its... nonsense FX speculation is the art of understanding the impact of currency demand based on the underlying interest rate as set by the central bank in this case the BOE vs the FED This is FX 101 So FX 101 EUR -> NEGATIVE...
For god sake, can you pull out an EG chart? Can you do an analysis like I did in the post?: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7535974

If you cannot, just shut up. Every time you do a projection on spx, it goes wrong.

Take note that, in future every time you do ridiculous things, I will be out to beat you up.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #381,904
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:13pm Jun 13, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} looking at 6863 or lower as a possible L entry. atm its probably bouncing from R (6995 ish). i will probably not trade 6863 and wait for 6643/6464 and target 7173 or more. after 7173 i will look for a indication of a drop to short. if am wrong about 6643, that's ok, i have no position. i have waited for 6643 since april to long. above 6995 is 7017. i may take a shot at a short there if all looks right for a few or more
Hi Gator,

Thank you for your response. Will have to take a look later, but those levels seem familiar.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #381,905
  • Jun 13, 2014 11:24pm Jun 13, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} For god sake, can you pull out an EG chart? Can you do an analysis like I did in the post?: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7535974 If you cannot, just shut up. Every time you do a projection on spx, it goes wrong. Take note that, in future every time you do ridiculous things, I will be out to beat you up.
So, just curious why the vitriol towards Jimmy? Solid guy, solid trader.

And knowing what I know, I am pretty sure you can not beat him up.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #381,906
  • Jun 14, 2014 12:45am Jun 14, 2014 12:45am
Weekly trends look firmly in place – again.

FXCM Dollar: Down after a retrace back up to the inverting Guppy profile, with a finish on Friday on the 138.2 FE. I would expect this support to give way, and thus help Cable north.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollarweekly.png Size: 71 KB

EG: Dropped into a no-man’s zone upon my chart when considering fib points, but has finished the week on MS2. (EU has come to rest on the last of the ascending MAs of the Guppy profile, and so may have helped prevent any further drops for EG.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbpweekly.png Size: 76 KB

EU: Resting on support from the Guppy profile… I would not like to call its next move, but consider Sterling a more attractive asset that the Euro at present.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.png Size: 73 KB

Cable: Once again we have seen price drop below an ascending Guppy profile, only for it to linger for a while, and then shoot back up. She is now teasing again at the 1.70 mark – last seen in 2008 – and if there is a continuation, my fib plots suggest she will be heading for the 1.73 mark.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 71 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #381,907
  • Jun 14, 2014 9:46am Jun 14, 2014 9:46am
Quoting thodie
{quote} pretty similar, already in 2long trades but had to hedge that one to 80%, work most of the time with pendings or small lot EA´s as i am no daytrader, have a 12hour job during london until late US session... {image}


woahh. what broker allows a trading like that? I'm looking for a broker where you can put longs and shorts at the same time. Because most of brokers I know doesn't work like that. They instead close your buy position when you sell. I wanna get into that one!
  • #381,908
  • Jun 14, 2014 10:48am Jun 14, 2014 10:48am
Quoting champoooy
{quote} woahh. what broker allows a trading like that? I'm looking for a broker where you can put longs and shorts at the same time. Because most of brokers I know doesn't work like that. They instead close your buy position when you sell. I wanna get into that one!
All brokers that allow mt4 ca do that.
No emotions, just trade
  • #381,909
  • Jun 14, 2014 2:18pm Jun 14, 2014 2:18pm
cable weekly chart. Notice the weekly divergence, which rarely fail.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable-weekly-divergence_263.png Size: 870 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #381,910
  • Jun 14, 2014 2:30pm Jun 14, 2014 2:30pm
Cable has not felt below 16950. What does it means. Next week could be interesting . 70% 170 or above 30% south. Time will show,
No emotions, just trade
  • #381,911
  • Jun 14, 2014 2:58pm Jun 14, 2014 2:58pm
Spot the difference in 2014
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcot.jpg Size: 72 KB
swing it!
  • #381,912
  • Edited 5:12pm Jun 14, 2014 4:56pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting tomspin
Spot the difference in 2014 {image}
interesting COT chart. it is clear that speculators reduced their long positions and become mainly short in euro, and this action started in early May, confirming my prediction at the end of March from first observation of weekly divergence as in this post : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post7374568

Here is a chart from my post of June 5th with added commentary: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...69#post7516969

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-TDA_245.png Size: 409 KB


Weekly divergence rarely fail, and it gives much earlier warning and projection. The fate for cable very likely is going to be the same as projected by the weekly divergence as observed in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post7536474. When cable starts to fall, the COT report will change to confirm the fall by speculators reducing their long positions and becoming mainly short in cable.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #381,913
  • Jun 14, 2014 6:18pm Jun 14, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Gator, Thank you for your response. Will have to take a look later, but those levels seem familiar.
i just added you to my list. please post those large harmonics when we are near a entry or completion. thanks
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #381,914
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:07am Jun 15, 2014 12:07am
Quoting shakiba
On the H4 TF, the price is moving down along with a bearish trend. By having the trend line broken around 1.6850, we will be observing a growth. http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/ {image}

Result:

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.gif Size: 79 KB
  • #381,915
  • Jun 15, 2014 4:27am Jun 15, 2014 4:27am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Market finally managed to breach 735-745 resistance and close above 736 to high of 760... I'm in long here on retracement at 1.6730.
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} OK...I'm taking half of the long position here @ 1.6830 and booking 100 pips profit. Carrying the rest....

Long has definitely NOT been wrong...Perfect break out of the descending wedge.

Position from 1.6730 yielding +ve 231 pips as of Friday's close of 1.6961,

took partial profit @ 1.6830 on NFP friday at first contact w/ DTL.


After having formed a double bottom off the lower desceding TL and retesting May/June DTL,

Price's now probing multi-year highs with the week's high printing 1.6992

As such I'm continuing to carry the remaining long position for the time being.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H8Cable.png Size: 11 KB
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #381,916
  • Edited 12:35pm Jun 15, 2014 11:20am | Edited 12:35pm
Based on my system its clear ideal sell.
Knowing about harmonics its clear last tremendous swing triggered by Carney was classic impulse wave which will follow corrective wave.
We are perhaps 8-12months away from IR hike eternity in terms of price fluctuations.
If you are bullish which I totally understand don't expect continued up movement without major correction 1st.Don't be the sucker who buys from the very top.Wait for retrace.As for me I'll take 100pips south on multiple positions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.daily.png Size: 45 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.h4.png Size: 44 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #381,917
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:44pm Jun 15, 2014 12:44pm
Davit has a good argument I think....Nice big double top there on a vertical possible exhaustive move. I know GU likes to run stops, wouldn't surprise me to see a spike through the highs and a reversal..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 240m.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #381,918
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:53pm Jun 15, 2014 12:53pm
looking bigger picture on the weekly this is definitely at an important top...current top on the right, prior top on the left about 50 pips higher...very bearish weekly candles prior..we'll see how it plays out today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu weekly.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #381,919
  • Jun 15, 2014 12:54pm Jun 15, 2014 12:54pm
Quoting Davit
Based on my system its clear ideal sell. Knowing about harmonics its clear last tremendous swing triggered by Carney was classic impulse wave which will follow corrective wave. We are perhaps 8-12months away from IR hike eternity in terms of price fluctuations. If you are bullish which I totally understand don't expect continued up movement without major correction 1st.Don't be the sucker who buys from the very top.Wait for retrace.As for me I'll take 100pips south on multiple positions. {image} {image}
... Right or wrong, I know what I'm doing on market open.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #381,920
  • Jun 15, 2014 3:05pm Jun 15, 2014 3:05pm
Two weeks into this months bar, cable has already covered the range of the previous month.

At this point I like to imagine what the bar would look like if it was to close 100,200 and 300 points lower from today?

Personally I can't see this turning into a negative bar this month.

Weekly chart showing strong close above all the opens and closes of previous 5 weeks therefore I still think more up.

Daily on Friday showing weakness, so hopefully down to my pending demo buy limits at 1.6875 and 1.6825 stop at 1.6725

Targeting 1.7044 and 1.7125. If target prices are hit before trades are executed they are cancelled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: metatrader 4.png Size: 123 KB
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