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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #370,661
  • Apr 5, 2014 8:41am Apr 5, 2014 8:41am
Quoting Bones
Hi G ,all opinions are only probabilities ,but with the right edge/knowledge I think we can talk very high probabilities indeed , I see cable back down to major support within 1-2 months I can look at all gbp pairs and feel very comfortable that I'm right {quote}
Bones, so your take is that GU will ultimately slide to 6240-60 area? Possible, but not highly probable within next 4-8 weeks.

More likely PA to reverse @ 6480-6520 and then retest recent highs (ranging price action).
Still worth noting that 6480-6520 holds the key.

I ran my models today to update possible high/low on GU for next 4-8 weeks, looks like low could come in close to 6500 and high @ 6850.
As a position trader, I'd wait for test of 6480-6520 before making any new trades.
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  • #370,662
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:03am Apr 5, 2014 9:03am
bones prolly busy elsewhere.
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  • #370,663
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:18am Apr 5, 2014 9:18am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Bones, so your take is that GU will ultimately slide to 6240-60 area? Possible, but not highly probable within next 4-8 weeks. More likely PA to reverse @ 6480-6520 and then retest recent highs (ranging price action). Still worth noting that 6480-6520 holds the key. I ran my models today to update possible high/low on GU for next 4-8 weeks, looks like low could come in close to 6500 and high @ 6850. As a position trader, I'd wait for test of 6480-6520 before making any new trades. {image}
fair assessment.... not that my thoughts will determine anything, but Nazdaq pooped on Friday...maybe a small "tell" for a little dollar strength for a larger move north for the pound....FWIW

As much as higher seems to be the consensus, Im leaning short term for lower.... 1.6250 would be a great place to go long
  • #370,664
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:19am Apr 5, 2014 9:19am
Quoting 45Condor
{quote} Hi. The answer is no. I just read what was available online, watched how Guppys work on multiple TFs, and winged it from there. I think they are fairly self-explanatory, and combined with Fibonacci studies, give me as good as any other 'lagging' system, a fairly good idea of what is going on. Yes, it can be argued that a bare chart is just as good at showing trend, but I'd feel too exposed in such nakedness. Should you be interested, this is something that I wrote...
read your link. you wrote well. good pointers also.
glad you master gmma and make it part of your trading method.

imho - naked chart vs. indy chart are the preferences of individuals
at the end of the trades, we want are to make pips = $$$

suggestion - shouldn't you open a gmma trading thread? i would definitely subscribe to it.

cheers
  • #370,665
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:34am Apr 5, 2014 9:34am
I'm not in Hawaii really id like to go ,haha

Quoting ruffryders
bones prolly busy elsewhere. {image}
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,666
  • Apr 5, 2014 9:42am Apr 5, 2014 9:42am
supports outlook
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #370,667
  • Edited Apr 6, 2014 1:34am Apr 5, 2014 12:12pm | Edited Apr 6, 2014 1:34am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} read your link. you wrote well. good pointers also. glad you master gmma and make it part of your trading method. imho - naked chart vs. indy chart are the preferences of individuals at the end of the trades, we want are to make pips = $$$ suggestion - shouldn't you open a gmma trading thread? i would definitely subscribe to it. cheers
I use gmma as well but not often since I have another method that works better for me.Problem is if you want to short and look at gmma on daily chart or even 4hrs by the time it clears all slow moving averages then you missed good chunk of the move since that can be significant.
If you decide to go in early then you could be caught in whip saw.
Example I posted guppy just cleared slow MA's but notice the distance....
In my opinion guppy works best on faster TF 30-1hr ideal otherwise you will miss good portion of the move.I trade daily weekly only so its not my main weapon.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,668
  • Apr 5, 2014 12:17pm Apr 5, 2014 12:17pm
GU is in no man land so not touching it until it moves either south or north.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,669
  • Apr 5, 2014 12:20pm Apr 5, 2014 12:20pm
As comparison to guppy my BB system clearly shows PA is right in the middle of deviations with bearish bias.RSI below middle slightly but not in my buy zone nor sell zone.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #370,670
  • Apr 5, 2014 12:42pm Apr 5, 2014 12:42pm
I agree with Bones, on the monthly and the weekly, cable failed to break a strong level of resistance. Cable down. On the daily, we have price consolidating and a recent trend down. It might jump up short turn, but I expect the down trend will eventually continue. I am not sure what to take, if anything, from the other GBP pairs.
  • #370,671
  • Apr 5, 2014 12:56pm Apr 5, 2014 12:56pm
the best selling (for a while) is likely in May,
as its always in May
maybe not for the Dow (although last yr was likely only an anomaly as too many were predicating it on tv)

but for the GBP and Euro, they nearly always selloff in May
how far is anyone's guess - but both the GBP and Euro need a fairly decent pullback, otherwise both may harm exports in the nr future,
the Central Banks may finally give the nod for a bigger pullback to Wkly support,
but will have to see
  • #370,672
  • Apr 5, 2014 2:28pm Apr 5, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} read your link. you wrote well. good pointers also. glad you master gmma and make it part of your trading method. imho - naked chart vs. indy chart are the preferences of individuals at the end of the trades, we want are to make pips = $$$ suggestion - shouldn't you open a gmma trading thread? i would definitely subscribe to it. cheers
It’s quite flattering that you say that, but I could not invest the time in such an enterprise… my work sees me all over the world, and as such, I could not guarantee a regular input beyond that of a weekly post.

Yes, if I’m not with a client, I have the privilege of being able to work from home, and so will submit more posts. However, I am trying to maintain the habit of reserving my submissions to FF for the weekends. Such a pause in regularity, I feel, would kill any attempt at a thread, as the traders on FF seem to possess an almost insatiable appetite for constant updates to positions, opinions and so on.

I also like to try and write in my free time – follow the not-so-subtle hint in my signature – and I am trying to get into the habit of giving the Cable and EU thread a monthly moan upon topical issues. (I doubt many members would expose themselves to my diatribe if I hid in my own little corner of FF... )
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #370,673
  • Apr 5, 2014 6:03pm Apr 5, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting 45Condor
{quote} It’s quite flattering that you say that, but I could not invest the time in such an enterprise… my work sees me all over the world, and as such, I could not guarantee a regular input beyond that of a weekly post. Yes, if I’m not with a client, I have the privilege of being able to work from home, and so will submit more posts. However, I am trying to maintain the habit of reserving my submissions to FF for the weekends. Such a pause in regularity, I feel, would kill any attempt at a thread, as the traders on FF seem to possess an almost...
no worry about that.
commitment in work as well as family should come 1st.
i take posting as part of practising and enforcing my trading method.

good luck to your trading as well as work.
  • #370,674
  • Apr 5, 2014 6:13pm Apr 5, 2014 6:13pm
Quoting Davit
As comparison to guppy my BB system clearly shows PA is right in the middle of deviations with bearish bias.RSI below middle slightly but not in my buy zone nor sell zone. {image}
mate - point taken. glad to hear traders using BB.

last week i favoured G/A then G/U.
took a trade on G/A but closed already.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post7384659

kind of late for G/U, so i don't chase.

cheers
  • #370,675
  • Apr 6, 2014 12:40am Apr 6, 2014 12:40am
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Bones, so your take is that GU will ultimately slide to 6240-60 area? Possible, but not highly probable within next 4-8 weeks. More likely PA to reverse @ 6480-6520 and then retest recent highs (ranging price action). Still worth noting that 6480-6520 holds the key. I ran my models today to update possible high/low on GU for next 4-8 weeks, looks like low could come in close to 6500 and high @ 6850. As a position trader, I'd wait for test of 6480-6520 before making any new trades. {image}

load of bullshit. so your models predict future price is it??? what if some unforeseen event happens like carney says in this week that he cannot raise rates because data is bad.
  • #370,676
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:41am Apr 6, 2014 4:41am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} load of bullshit. so your models predict future price is it??? what if some unforeseen event happens like carney says in this week that he cannot raise rates because data is bad.
@giveachance:

Good Morning

Please see Membership/ Trader Code of Conduct here on Forex Factory
http://www.forexfactory.com/userguid...hip-trader_coc

Here is part of the code:

II. Respect fellow traders

Theoretically, all members are at Forex Factory for the same purpose: the pursuit of trading profits. Therefore, members should treat each other like professional colleagues. Members should not be mean-spirited,

While your point is valid, Please see previous post, Monday, March 31, 2014, written to ruffryders conveying the same sentiment, yet at the same time showing respect for the fellow trader.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post7372941


ruffryders is an options trader and this is why his posts are based on time. He is trying to apply the same concept of trading options to trading spot fx which is what we trade in. Eventually over time, ruffryders will come to see that the essence of options trading based on a specific time, if applied to spot fx, most times will be erroneous.

But we must show respect to the trader.

HDA OUT
  • #370,677
  • Edited 6:17am Apr 6, 2014 4:46am | Edited 6:17am
NICE TO KNOW INFORMATION

I shared this in the Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

Quoting ruffryders
{quote} it's an interesting chain of events though. Initially, crap news came out on au. Uj did not respond though to au decline initialy, then gu starts to rally - dragon goes up 20-30. Now uj starts to respond to au slide, and the dragon is up another 20-30. Some cool stuff.

@ruffryders:

Spot FX holds it aggregate value always. It is recession proof. So no matter what happens on any currency pair, it always balances out.


The FOREX market is made up by the following ratio 60:40

60% (speculative market) 1,400 Trillion Traded Annually or 4 Trillion Traded A Day
Currency Swaps
Forwards
Options
Futures

AND

40% ( EDIT partly non-speculative market) 547 Trillion Traded Annually or 1.5 trillion Traded A Day

Spot FX - We trade in this market.


When you combine all FIVE you get

1,947 Trillion Traded Annually or 5.5 Trillion Traded A Day

HDA OUT
  • #370,678
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:54am Apr 6, 2014 4:54am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} load of bullshit. so your models predict future price is it??? what if some unforeseen event happens like carney says in this week that he cannot raise rates because data is bad.
very profound and deep. now you can go back to the ice hut. thanks.
  • #370,679
  • Apr 6, 2014 4:58am Apr 6, 2014 4:58am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @giveachance: Good Morning Please see Membership/ Trader Code of Conduct here on Forex Factory http://www.forexfactory.com/userguid...hip-trader_coc Here is part of the code: II. Respect fellow traders Theoretically, all members are at Forex Factory for the same purpose: the pursuit of trading profits. Therefore, members should treat each other like professional colleagues. Members should not be mean-spirited, While your point is valid, Please see previous post, Monday, March 31, 2014, written to ruffryders conveying...
HDA thanks for a recap. I trade both options and spot fx, however currently for the month of April invested 90% in options, due to a better risk/reward ratio of the trades.
  • #370,680
  • Apr 6, 2014 5:20am Apr 6, 2014 5:20am
Quoting HDA
NICE TO KNOW INFORMATION I shared this in the Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY) {quote} @ruffryders: Spot FX holds it aggregate value always. It is recession proof. So no matter what happens on any currency pair, it always balances out. The FOREX market is made up by the following ratio 60:40 60% (speculative market) 1,400 Trillion Traded Annually or 4 Trillion Traded A Day Currency Swaps Forwards Options Futures AND 40% (non-speculative market) 547 Trillion Traded Annually or 1.5 trillion Traded A Day Spot FX - We trade in this market. When...
umm.... Spot FX is most certainly a speculative market...

Also if you think about the dynamic of an FX swap that can for the most part be considered non-speculative.

Unless of course you were to roll forward FX swaps so as to gain purely interest rate exposure, but why do that when you could just trade an IRS...
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