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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #369,701
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:14pm Mar 30, 2014 1:14pm
long gu here: Reasons - strong calendar period for gu, week bull engulfer, strong support and in an uptrend on d1 charts,
sequence of higher lows. Relative strength of gu as compared to eu. Ew in the green as well pointing towards 7000.

targets within next 4-6 weeks - 7000-7200.

PS: ALSO WE JUST CRACKED 6650 NOW IN THE RICE SESSION.
  • #369,702
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:29pm Mar 30, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting ruffryders
long gu here: Reasons - strong calendar period for gu, week bull engulfer, strong support and in an uptrend on d1 charts, sequence of higher lows. Relative strength of gu as compared to eu. Ew in the green as well pointing towards 7000. targets within next 4-6 weeks - 7000-7200. PS: ALSO WE JUST CRACKED 6650 NOW IN THE RICE SESSION.
That's assuming US side is drop dead numbers.Not likely.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #369,703
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:41pm Mar 30, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} That's assuming US side is drop dead numbers.Not likely. regards
well unless the number is suprisingly above the consensus of 196K I personally don't see much of an impact.

The past 25 reports averaged 180, so they already set the bar high with 196.

My take - the number will be below consensus and thus will trigger further dollar weakness.
Even if we get consensus it won't have a mind blowing effect.

dollar to be contained until May 2014.
  • #369,704
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:58pm Mar 30, 2014 1:58pm
Interesting

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ecession-pound
  • #369,705
  • Mar 30, 2014 1:58pm Mar 30, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} well unless the number is suprisingly above the consensus of 196K I personally don't see much of an impact. The past 25 reports averaged 180, so they already set the bar high with 196. My take - the number will be below consensus and thus will trigger further dollar weakness. Even if we get consensus it won't have a mind blowing effect. dollar to be contained until May 2014.
We are on opposite side of bias but that's ok.I don't see further USD decline on contrary further strengh.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #369,706
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:06pm Mar 30, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} well unless the number is suprisingly above the consensus of 196K I personally don't see much of an impact. The past 25 reports averaged 180, so they already set the bar high with 196. My take - the number will be below consensus and thus will trigger further dollar weakness. Even if we get consensus it won't have a mind blowing effect. dollar to be contained until May 2014.
consensus means nothing.
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  • #369,707
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:44pm Mar 30, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} consensus means nothing. {image}
What software is that if you don't mind me asking?
  • #369,708
  • Mar 30, 2014 2:53pm Mar 30, 2014 2:53pm
1.6661 HOD????
  • #369,709
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:15pm Mar 30, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting ruffryders
long gu here: Reasons - strong calendar period for gu, week bull engulfer, strong support and in an uptrend on d1 charts, sequence of higher lows. Relative strength of gu as compared to eu. Ew in the green as well pointing towards 7000. targets within next 4-6 weeks - 7000-7200. PS: ALSO WE JUST CRACKED 6650 NOW IN THE RICE SESSION.
I agree I think it is bullish for sure

Couldn't post on your thread so posting here,

What do you think? buy at support 1.6600-1.6575 target 1.6800
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  • #369,710
  • Edited 4:39pm Mar 30, 2014 3:24pm | Edited 4:39pm
Good Afternoon Forex Factory Members and Guests

What is happening with the GBP/USD from a day traders perspective?

(Start of Edit) I am not a Day Trader, I am a Position Trader, currently long the GBP/USD from November 2013 last year and still holding for my target 1.7000 unless Price Action dictates otherwise. (End Of Edit)

I have decided to write this post for the benefit of day traders and scalpers.

I would like to state for the record that I do not believe in hind-sight trading.

Hind-sight trading, for those who aren't familiar with the term, simply means, after the market has moved, traders would then post, why the market did what it did and how they profited from it. As a participating trader in any forum, if you are confident to share your plan after the market has moved, then you should be confident to share your plan before the market has moved.

Having looked at all the credible information currently available to me and compressing it, I will now write in simple terms, what you can take notice of, as the market moves. This is not the Holy Grail and as an Institutional Trader, this is just another traders perspective on the market and should not be seen as Gospel. In other words, still do your own analysis and continue to trade your own plan.

I repeat, do not blindly follow what I have written, do your own analysis and trade your plan.

HERE WE GO:

GBP/USD (Sunday, March 30, 2014)

Where are the bids?
Where are the offers?
What are the significant levels of support to watch?
What are the significant levels of resistance to watch?
10am Eastern Options Expiry Data going into Monday, March 31, 2014
Where are the stops?
Game plan buyers?
Game plan sellers?
Trend direction, bullish with explanation.

None of the information that I will share with you includes NEWS. I do not trade based on NEWS, just Price Action and Levels. So when the market does what it wants to do, please pay attention to the significant levels that I will be making reference to. Please then see what happens at those levels, IF price action takes us there, wether because of news or some other reason. The focus must be on the significant levels and what happens at those levels, IF, price action takes us there for what ever reason. (This again is my way and at no time am I stating that it is the correct way, I am just putting it out there before the time and then see what happens)

No Hind Sight Trading - which I call Dishonest Trading.

BIDS are currently at 1.6600, 1.6580, 1.6550 and the stops 1.6545
Significant Levels ofSupport are 1.6580, 1.6550, 1.6480 (note what happens IF price gets to those levels)

OFFERS are currently at 1.6650, 1.6684, 1.6700 and the stops 1.6675
Significant Levels of Resistance are 1.6650, 1.6716, 1.6743 (note what happens IF price gets to those levels)

10am Eastern Options Expiry for Monday, March 31, 2014

1.6750
1.6615
1.6550 pay out 400 million

Game Plan Sellers (day traders/scalpers)
Sell 1.6680 and exit some at 1.6660 and exit the rest 1.6640
Sell 1.6695 and exit some at 1.6675 and exit the rest 1.6655
Sell 1.6710 andexit some at 1.6690 and exit the rest 1.6670
Sell 1.6740 and exit some at 1.6720 and exit the rest 1.6700

Game Plan Buyers (day traders/scalpers)
Buy 1.6605 and exit some 1.6625 and exit the rest 1.6645
Buy 1.6585 and exit some 1.6605 and exit the rest 1.6625/45
Buy 1.6555 and exit some 1.6575 and exit the rest 1.6595/1.6645


Trend Direction With Explanation
Bullish - Long term

Pull the fibs starting from Point A 1.62521 to Point B 1.68227 in the direction of the trend and you will see that the market was in retrace mode and pulled back to the 0.382 fib level (1.66042) and it then went on to the 0.50 fib level (1.65364) which further retraced to the 0.618 fib level (1.64686) which could be the Possible C, which for those of you that trade using fibs, the D Extension of a 0.382 or 0.50 or 0.618 retrace would project to the 1.618 fib level (1.71728).

However we must keep in mind the 2009 High 1.7043

If the 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD is taken out and we get a daily close above 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000

Please take from this what you may find helpful and remember this is not the HOLY GRAIL, this is just the perspective of an institutional trader, sharing his experience of trading the forex, just like the rest of you, whom at the same time is open to also learning from everyone.

HDA OUT
  • #369,711
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:31pm Mar 30, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} What software is that if you don't mind me asking?
thomson reuters eikon
  • #369,712
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:37pm Mar 30, 2014 3:37pm
Quoting HDA
I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000 Please take from this what you may find helpful and remember this is not the HOLY GRAIL, this is just the perspective of an institutional trader, sharing his experience of trading the forex, just like the rest of you, whom at the same time is open to also learning from everyone. HDA OUT
you do all that good work, and then you go and say this... just wow
  • #369,713
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:38pm Mar 30, 2014 3:38pm
thoughts
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  • #369,714
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:44pm Mar 30, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting HDA
Good Afternoon Forex Factory Members and Guests What is happening with the GBP/USD from a day traders perspective? I have decided to write this post for the benefit of day traders and scalpers. I would like to state for the record that I do not believe in hind-sight trading. Hind-sight trading, for those who aren't familiar with the term, simply means, after the market has moved, traders would then post, why the market did what it did and how they profited from it. As a participating trader in any forum, if you are confident to share your plan after...
  • #369,715
  • Mar 30, 2014 3:51pm Mar 30, 2014 3:51pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} you do all that good work, and then you go and say this... just wow
@JeremyWS:

How are things with you?

The last part speaks to position trading, which you high-lighted. It is actually one of TWO Scenarios I have been writing about as my game plan. I had copied and pasted it into the day trading post, without seeing that I did not remove"I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000"

The post should be solely about day trading. Thanks for point it out Hope your trading is going well?

Please see previous post Friday, Mach 7, 2014
Please pay attention to FINAL NOTE at the bottom of the post
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post7326942

I remain long GBP/USD to 1.70000 and long GBP/CAD to 1.90000

Final Note:

Scenario 1
The 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close above 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be re-entering LONG again to hold for 1.80000 and then 1.90000 and then 2.0000 - This is what position trading is about.

Scenario 2
If the 2009 High 1.7043 on the GBP/USD if taken out and we get a daily close below 1.70000 (when that time comes) I will be entering short back down to the consolidation area.

HDA OUT
  • #369,716
  • Mar 30, 2014 4:04pm Mar 30, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting srt
{quote}
@srt:

You're welcome How are you?

I wrote about you in a previous post.

Please see post, Monday, March 17, 2014
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post7345634

Here is part of the post:

Please see older post to help explain this.

The first post explains the methodology
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post6932504

The second post illustrates the methodology with a chart, compliments of trader srt.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post6932720

These posts were taken from Davit's Confluence Trading Thread.

HDA OUT
  • #369,717
  • Edited 4:39pm Mar 30, 2014 4:15pm | Edited 4:39pm
Forex Factory Members

I am not a Day Trader, I am a Position Trader, currently long the GBP/USD from November 2013 last year and still holding for my target 1.7000 unless Price Action dictates otherwise.

My previous post was written with Day Traders in mind

HDA OUT
  • #369,718
  • Mar 30, 2014 4:42pm Mar 30, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @JeremyWS: How are things with you?

yeah good - however, given the structural difference in the GBP from 2008 to now, you might as well throw away the data for the older charts... its a completely different make-up, and techs will count for shit-all above 1.7050... yes there may be some stops, but to get to 1.8/1.9/2.0 you need fundamental backing... which just isn't there (and I'm more bullish the UK than 95% of the street)

Techs don't work on the longer timeframes.
  • #369,719
  • Mar 30, 2014 4:57pm Mar 30, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} yeah good - however, given the structural difference in the GBP from 2008 to now, you might as well throw away the data for the older charts... its a completely different make-up, and techs will count for shit-all above 1.7050... yes there may be some stops, but to get to 1.8/1.9/2.0 you need fundamental backing... which just isn't there (and I'm more bullish the UK than 95% of the street) Techs don't work on the longer timeframes.
That bounce from 6469 area set a target for Q2 above 1,71 mate, just waiting for end of March to see that from the pivots perspective but based on friday close that is also Quarter R2.
I know it is hard to be bullish after such a parabolic move but I do not see anything bearish atm(talking about quarter move).
Maybe a rate hike bet, no idea
swing it!
  • #369,720
  • Mar 30, 2014 5:00pm Mar 30, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} That bounce from 6469 area set a target for Q2 above 1,71 mate, just waiting for end of March to see that from the pivots perspective but based on friday close that is also Quarter R2. I know it is hard to be bullish after such a parabolic move but I do not see anything bearish atm(talking about quarter move). Maybe a rate hike bet, no idea
I would become bearish after firm close under 1,6250
swing it!
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