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Building an equity millipede

  • #6,181
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:07am Mar 14, 2014 6:07am
Quoting Calculus
60m The table makes perfect sense, I understand that. But many things make perfect sense and even more so from a mathmatical angle in this game but CAN ONE TRADE THEM? That really is the key question. Optimal f, using say half f makes perfect sense (assume a winning strategy) but who can trade that in real-time. Not many I wouldn't think. OK, this is an extreme example but nevertheless the human element of this game, just like sports, is absolutely critical.
yes mate, it's all about the human element and not the market, well, what I mean is the market is just human's feelings, people buy because they feel it's going up.... logical really.

You hear everyone say they do this and that because it feels right for them, so we need to be able to read those feelings and then decide if the end goal is what we require.

People think that we have to act on our feelings, but we don't, we can recognise them for what they are and then make rational decisions. When traders stop making impulse decisions on their feelings, then they stand more chance of winning in this crazy game....
tradewith60
  • #6,182
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:10am Mar 14, 2014 6:10am
Quoting Calculus
60m I don't have a high win % and I don't take small profits either. 3:1 can never be considered small in this game, ever. It might not be huge on any one trade, but it can be huge overtime...
agree 3:1 is perfectly adequate if you can maintain discipline and a reasonable win rate, it is by far the most popular choice in forex. I'm not sure the masses will make the best decision though, more likely what appears to be the easiest, that's human nature.
tradewith60
  • #6,183
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:26am Mar 14, 2014 6:26am
Something might be brewing in Cable right now (11.20am London time).

 

  1. See them pop some small stops at 9.22am?
  2. Now the boys have smashed in to take out the daily low around 1.6593
  3. Do the boys want to take it higher? Is the rtecent selloff designed to take many of the weak longs out and get some shorts in?
  4. Time will tell but if they ramp it back up through 1.6612 in the next 10-15 mins I'm going long
  5. Stop at the low
  6. As for potential profits, if the trade works, I'm going to be using both maths and 60m man's advice so I'm looking for about 2.5000 (I have a level from March 1973) which will be about 360:1

Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,184
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:34am Mar 14, 2014 6:34am
All due repect to those who trade this method but I have to say that this must be the hardest strategy on FF to trade successfully - by far.

The fact that Graeme made it look easy is a testament to his trading skill no less. Still when I looked at it a few years ago it stuck me that he is only making 37 pips per week on a trade over time. It just seems to be a lot because he was trading huge numbers.

Trading the 4 hour swings will generate more pips per week with much less stress watching a leg disintegrate before your eyes.

Graeme's legacy for me is to wait for the trend to change and enter on the 5 minute. This is an excellent entry system and very doable.

Regarding R:R I think the best method for me is to exit when the trend is reversing, whatever trend method you choose. This keeps me in the trade thru all the pullbacks and dips. An artificial 2:1 or 3:1 is not flowing with the market as I see it.

Anyhoo, best of luck to all millipede traders.
Enter Signature
  • #6,185
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:42am Mar 14, 2014 6:42am
I'm giving that Cable trade another 10 mins to stop me in ( till 11.50am London time).

If it's not filled I'm cancelling because with these types of trades you want them to snap back quickly meaning the selling down was fake, ie only designed to get them all out before marching higher. If it doesn't snap back quickly then the selling is probably real and we're heading lower.

Whatever the case, Cable is certainly skitzo today, probably meaning whatever you do will result in losses. But you never know, it's a numbers game!
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,186
  • Mar 14, 2014 6:51am Mar 14, 2014 6:51am
Out of the cable order. No trade, no loss and sadly no 360:1 winner
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,187
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:42am Mar 14, 2014 7:42am
Damn EA is holding in there, Gold positions 750 up, will diversify to leave the weekly low later

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tradewith60
  • #6,188
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:48am Mar 14, 2014 7:48am
The boys often USE the figures to create perversity and in turn mega profits for themselves. It took me a long time to realise this. What I'd often do is wait 10-20 minutes after figures for the dust to settle down. But what you'll often see, especially on the bigger figures (and especially on smaller crosses like USD-CAD) is they move the market in an instant to take out the break-even stops and then slam it the other way.

It will happen like this -

  1. 1. Within a few secs of the figure price will jump (assuming a short trade) 20+ ticks right up to where many B/E stops are likely to be
  2. Within a few secs of that price will go back to where it was just before the figure and then start to collapse
  3. GO WITH IT
  4. The stop back to the high will be large but I wouldn't use the high as my stop level, I'd recommend a normaly type stop, say 20 or so ticks on the 20m chart. The reason is you're betting on the first move being a perversity move with the sole aim to get those unchanged stops, so if you're right price is not going anywhere near than high again
  5. Hold on for a big payday, somewhere in the region of 100+ ticks, maybe even more in many cases


The trick is to do your analysis before the event (obviously) and look at your charts through the lens of perversity so say "if they're going to take it lower price has a good chance of spiking to that unchanged level, if that happens quikly and then it reverses that will prove my thesis so I should go with it".

Of course, the release of the figure might not do anything, or price just dumps without moving higher. There's probably 1 or 2 of these trades a week on average and as ever they don't always work. But this is a good strategy because it brings in the all-important perversity that I bang on about all the time.

Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,189
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:51am Mar 14, 2014 7:51am
Quoting 60minuteman
Damn EA is holding in there, Gold positions 750 up, will diversify to leave the weekly low later {image}
Such small profits you're taking 60, don't you understand simple maths?

Gold is going to $10,000 minimum and you're taking what, $40-$50.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,190
  • Mar 14, 2014 7:53am Mar 14, 2014 7:53am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} Such small profits you're taking 60, don't you understand simple maths? Gold is going to $10,000 minimum and you're taking what, $40-$50.
Well you're predicting there, I'm just taking what the market gives, close the positions most at risk, leave the extremes to run....

Of course it could if we have war in Europe...but that's still unlikely eh?
tradewith60
  • #6,191
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:01am Mar 14, 2014 8:01am
You know I'm just being stupid 60.

Nice trading there buddy.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,192
  • Mar 14, 2014 8:03am Mar 14, 2014 8:03am
Quoting Calculus
You know I'm just being stupid 60. Nice trading there buddy.
indeedy mate... friendly banter
tradewith60
  • #6,193
  • Mar 15, 2014 10:51am Mar 15, 2014 10:51am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Indeed it is mate.... I was preaching higher RR for a long time before it ever became the reality in my trading, that post finally got me to stop pissing around and completely re-evaluate what I was doing technically and psychologically to get to my end goal. How can these figures not compel you to change your approach unless you have completely forgot why you're trading in the first place. win rate 50% RR 5/1 profit £24,000 win rate 43% RR 10/1 profit £43,000 So in effect, just stomach 1 extra loss every 10 trades to double your profit......
Guys:
When do you consider a trade is a loss? I never used SL, sometimes reaching 300 pips dd for weeks until it finally exhausted and moved back to where it started. If it turns North I have to ride on, recovering all my dd back.
  • #6,194
  • Mar 15, 2014 11:15am Mar 15, 2014 11:15am
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
{quote} Guys: When do you consider a trade is a loss? I never used SL, sometimes reaching 300 pips dd for weeks until it finally exhausted and moved back to where it started. If it turns North I have to ride on, recovering all my dd back.
No reason why that approach can't work, I personally prefer to take the loss and try again at a new extreme.
tradewith60
  • #6,195
  • Mar 15, 2014 12:17pm Mar 15, 2014 12:17pm
Hey Guys and Gals

Are you traders still trading this method?
  • #6,196
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:04pm Mar 15, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} No reason why that approach can't work, I personally prefer to take the loss and try again at a new extreme.
It works for me. My equity is steadily rising. One approach is the use of hedging. It will freeze your dd while allowing time to plot your next move as market move. One way of cutting your dd is to close a equivalent loss against a positive trade to make things even.
  • #6,197
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:06pm Mar 15, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting pullice
Hey Guys and Gals Are you traders still trading this method?
I am position trading although I don't use Graeme's entry or diversifying techniques. Which is what he suggested anyway. The profits are far greater than anything intra-day can offer.
tradewith60
  • #6,198
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:08pm Mar 15, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting Edd Ganuelas
{quote} It works for me. My equity is steadily rising. One approach is the use of hedging. It will freeze your dd while allowing time to plot your next move as market move. One way of cutting your dd is to close a equivalent loss against a positive trade to make things even.
Yes I use hedged orders for various reasons, works fine for me. The secret with any of it is to remember what our end goals are, not to win, not to be great traders or analyst's, but to make profit.
tradewith60
  • #6,199
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:32pm Mar 15, 2014 1:32pm
I have been trading live but on a complete opposite structure, cut profits short and run losses, low leverage, I KNOW you guys wont be interested after reading this thread (which is an eye opener and one of the best threads I have read on the internet).

If i may ask in a nutshell the trading is like:-

1) Cut losses short.
2) Never close profits. Optional and discretional on a personal level
3) Follow the Main trend
4) Hedge your position on trend reversals.
5) Entries are based on breakout or sort of or something like that.
  • #6,200
  • Mar 15, 2014 1:45pm Mar 15, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting Don M
All due repect to those who trade this method but I have to say that this must be the hardest strategy on FF to trade successfully - by far. The fact that Graeme made it look easy is a testament to his trading skill no less. Still when I looked at it a few years ago it stuck me that he is only making 37 pips per week on a trade over time. It just seems to be a lot because he was trading huge numbers. Trading the 4 hour swings will generate more pips per week with much less stress watching a leg disintegrate before your eyes. Graeme's legacy for...
Consider hedging when your trade is reversing. It will freeze your profit. Close it once it return back to the trend.
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