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Building an equity millipede

  • #6,141
  • Mar 6, 2014 7:58pm Mar 6, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I believe it's called random distribution It's a reason a lot struggle because they're not expecting what is likely to occur {image}
Cool thanks.
  • #6,142
  • Mar 7, 2014 3:36am Mar 7, 2014 3:36am
Quoting Calculus
However, as others have suggested on this thread, if you're a good short term trader you really don't need this strategy, just keep doing what you're doing, and increase size overtime as profits are generated.
Technically speaking - yes, you don't need it. However, I can't imagine why would I choose not to use it. I'll get to spend less time trading, I'll effectively get rid of the stress altogether and I'll increase my profits significantly.
  • #6,143
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:14am Mar 7, 2014 4:14am
we don't have to act on our emotions, we can as adults decide what is best for us and decide to take that course, even though it's hard.

Inserted Video
tradewith60
  • #6,144
  • Mar 7, 2014 4:57pm Mar 7, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} i am familiar with a lot of old timers on this forum who have come briefly and left jewels for us. Trader888 is definitely one of them so thanks for sharing. I took time to read all his thought provoking posts last night. Reading forums is a lot like reading markets.... a 'skill' is required to filter the noise and read only those that are worth the time. Folks spend years trying to find an edge. I prefer progressively 'building' an edge around what I see and feel every day on every candle on every pair/timeframe and let the law of large...
hey Vee...

some of the stuff you said there I can totally relate too...

'Some of my best trades are the ones I took casually and based purely on 'gut feeling' --- most people never get to the stage where they at least realize this.There really is no such thing as high probability in trading, but it makes us feel good.... You can be skilful or lucky but the market is uncertain and always will be.

I think these forums can be very unhelpful, we're led to believe that only certain things work and that you have to follow the rules in the book(s).... I wish I could erase everything I ever wrote on these forums because good advice with the wrong context is useless, and it's all about context, emotional and technical.

Well I have to go, I may post some charts next week of my intra-swing-position trades, it would be nice to get a group of stackers in here, but it would need the OP's return really and he's said all that's needed to be fair.
tradewith60
  • #6,145
  • Mar 8, 2014 10:27am Mar 8, 2014 10:27am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I tried to erase everything I have posted in this thread but Twee won't agree. Deleting within 24 hours is an option as it reaches to those who have subscribed to me or this thread. I am surprised not many have started their own threads, journals or signal service in the commercial section by now. I thought there would be lot of folks (and scammers) leveraging from Graeme's teachings. It speaks volumes how hard this journey has been for everyone. This is the only thread on any FX public forum that has the potential of "Building an Equity...
Hi VeeFxWhy do you want to delete your posts. You posts are valuable to this thread. Clarified a lot of things for me about this strategy and trading as a whole.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #6,146
  • Mar 8, 2014 11:12am Mar 8, 2014 11:12am
Quoting 60minuteman
I'm forever posting this, but if you really take the time to study the numbers it's a really clear example of what the math says with regards trading. But, for some reason we find it very hard to take that step (hence so many never making it, i presume) http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/...placement.html
Hey 60

That link is without doubt one of the most important posts a trader can ever read and understand. The conventional teaching of aiming for at least 2 or 3 times the risk is just simply wrong. It needs to be more and the trading approach whatever it is needs to be able to get homerun trades or it will have trouble over time.
  • #6,147
  • Mar 8, 2014 1:58pm Mar 8, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting o990l6mh
{quote} Hey 60 That link is without doubt one of the most important posts a trader can ever read and understand. The conventional teaching of aiming for at least 2 or 3 times the risk is just simply wrong. It needs to be more and the trading approach whatever it is needs to be able to get homerun trades or it will have trouble over time.
Indeed it is mate.... I was preaching higher RR for a long time before it ever became the reality in my trading, that post finally got me to stop pissing around and completely re-evaluate what I was doing technically and psychologically to get to my end goal.

How can these figures not compel you to change your approach unless you have completely forgot why you're trading in the first place.

win rate 50% RR 5/1 profit £24,000
win rate 43% RR 10/1 profit £43,000

So in effect, just stomach 1 extra loss every 10 trades to double your profit... and all you need to do is stay in your trades. Strange that so many will remain down the high win rate, low RR route for their whole time as traders.
tradewith60
  • #6,148
  • Mar 8, 2014 3:50pm Mar 8, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Indeed it is mate.... I was preaching higher RR for a long time before it ever became the reality in my trading, that post finally got me to stop pissing around and completely re-evaluate what I was doing technically and psychologically to get to my end goal. How can these figures not compel you to change your approach unless you have completely forgot why you're trading in the first place. win rate 50% RR 5/1 profit £24,000 win rate 43% RR 10/1 profit £43,000 So in effect, just stomach 1 extra loss every 10 trades to double your profit......
It's fear speaking - grab what you have and run before it goes back to break even... I was caught in that mode of thinking for longer than I'd care to admit.
  • #6,149
  • Mar 12, 2014 5:52am Mar 12, 2014 5:52am
Trying to stack short GBP/Yen, first attempt on this.
  • #6,150
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:07am Mar 12, 2014 6:07am
Quoting ThisPip
Trying to stack short GBP/Yen, first attempt on this.
nice... starting a new leg long on EA

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tradewith60
  • #6,151
  • Mar 12, 2014 6:26am Mar 12, 2014 6:26am
...also legs on gold

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tradewith60
  • #6,152
  • Mar 12, 2014 7:05am Mar 12, 2014 7:05am
also eyeing that EJ weekly trend with long engulf last week... might be a chance to stack if we get another push
tradewith60
  • #6,153
  • Edited 10:11am Mar 13, 2014 9:23am | Edited 10:11am
Here's mine from fishing last night. Went to bed with anticipation that price will bounce off major line 1.9500. Game of pure luck when such setups work

Got 2 more sitting out there
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Staying in my lane...
  • #6,154
  • Edited 3:00pm Mar 13, 2014 9:47am | Edited 3:00pm
"Doing the hard thing" is normally the best way to operate in the markets, yet it is of course the hardest.

Moving stops to B/E is easy isn't it?

Not moving them to B/E is normally harder which means that's the right thing to do over a series of many trades.

In fact, one could probably trade a strategy that looks to enter if/when the break-even stops have been triggered. What to look for? A quik move down to get those B/Es and then the quick snap back. If it doesn't snap back quick, don't go with it.

Here's a good real-time example (it's USD-JPY but inverse so actually JPY-USD), today at around 1.30pm London time.

 

  1. See everyone get in from early London time onwards
  2. The boys then smack it down and at this point you don't know if it's geniune selling for whatever reason or too many are caught long OR the boys want to take it higher but in order to do this they first need to get many current longs out, the selling by the boys is then sort of fake selling designed with only one goal in mind (get to the b/e stop level)
  3. Whatever the case when it hits to 0.9730 area you know that's an area where many many B/E stops will be activated
  4. So you want to try to get long but not at that level because IF it is a massive B/E exercise price will soon move back up and more to the point usually aggressively
  5. If the move is genuine selling then price is unlikely to rally that much as more sellers than buyers will be active
  6. I would therefore put a stop to go long at say 0.9742 (ish), sell stop AT the low not below it (although you might differ)
  7. Look for at least 3:1 otherwise it's not good trading IMHO

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Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,155
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:53am Mar 13, 2014 9:53am
The above chart is 5m but I actually took the trade on the 20m. I look at both.

There's a hell of a difference (for me) between the two, 5m can be very tricky which is why I only like to take 5m trades if the chart is clean, ie price is not jumping all over the place making the chart and swings messy. 20m is cleaner but often doesn't pick up some of the good trades the 5m offers.

What I like about these sorts of trades in they're based on PERVERSITY. Perversity dogs all traders much of the time so try to look for chart areas that show this, then trade with perversity on your side rather than against you. Easy to say though, harder to do...
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,156
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:54am Mar 13, 2014 9:54am
Quoting Calculus
"Doing the hard thing" is normally the best way to operate in the markets, yet it is of course the hardest. Moving stops to B/E is easy isn't it? Not moving them to B/E is normally harder which means that's the right thing to do over a series of many trades. In fact, one could probably trade a strategy that looks to enter if/when the break-even stops have been triggered. What to look for? A quik move down to get those B/Es and then the quick snap back. If it doesn't snap back quick, don't go with it. Here's a good real-time example (it's USD-JPY...
I agree with not moving stops to b.e, but 3:1 RR has nothing to do with this thread.
tradewith60
  • #6,157
  • Mar 13, 2014 9:56am Mar 13, 2014 9:56am
looking to try and add to my gold position here... H1 chart

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tradewith60
  • #6,158
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:08am Mar 13, 2014 10:08am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote}But 3:1 RR has nothing to do with this thread.
OK, would you like me to delete my post?
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,159
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:13am Mar 13, 2014 10:13am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} OK, would you like me to delete my post?
No, It's a valid entry idea, I just think we should try and focus on the thread topic.
tradewith60
  • #6,160
  • Mar 13, 2014 10:21am Mar 13, 2014 10:21am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} No, It's a valid entry idea, I just think we should try and focus on the thread topic.
I did, the thread suggest traders try to find low risk entry ideas/patterns. What I posted was one of those, regardless of whether it's a 3:1 or 33:1 outcome
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
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