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  • #6,121
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:13am Mar 6, 2014 9:13am
Quoting Calculus
{quote} But to use this strategy correctly one better be a good short term trader otherwise you're a) going to suffer far too many losses as you initially trade, and b) not be able to stack correctly, ie very aggressively. This whole thread is basically a waste of time unless one is a good short term operator in the market. If you're not then the big wins you'll get won't be enough to offset the many many short term losses you'll generate. Conversly, it you're a competent short term trader this thread has the chance to change your life. Sadly for...
Hi Calculus,

the problem with your theory is that even if you are good at short term trading you will still be at a disadvantage for a few reasons.

1. The mathematics is quite clear that profits with small RR will be smaller (significantly) .Smaller profits, less room for error - there will be times the market is less favourable to your approach (unless you're super lucky), if you have banked massive profits already it is far less of an issue psychologically.

2. Increasing risk is risky. Increasing profit for consistent risk should be our aim.

3. As a position grows you actually need to trade less and can profit more - reducing your risk.

Now i'm not saying for 1 minute that intra-day trading can not be hugely profitable, but - the majority of retail traders trade intraday, the majority lose money, so for some a different approach may well be the answer.

Good luck mate....

p.s you're right about being able to select good locations to enter, that is essentially the same regardless of the money management, so yeah you kind of need to be good at both.
tradewith60
  • #6,122
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:14am Mar 6, 2014 9:14am
Quoting timos
{quote} Supply and demand work the same, on all timeframes, so why don't do it on bigger timeframes? I've done it successfully. Remember what Greaeme said: "What works in lower/higher timeframes,works in every kind of timeframes"
yes, markets are the result of supply and demand, not denying that at all, or it's use in entering the market. My gripe is with using it for very small RR, and I mean less than 5R.

I would look for an obvious trend on daily - gut feel and simple MA to give me direction for the day. Then take low risk entries of new demand. Repeat and hold everyday and then use weekly and monthly to diversify. Just like the OP suggested. I have a max of 3 attempts each day, maybe sometimes 4 or only 2 - As long as the market moves there will be opportunities to bank large gains.

gold long today - wait for it to find some demand and take a low risk guess - nothing's highly probable only uncertainty
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tradewith60
  • #6,123
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:26am Mar 6, 2014 9:26am
lol, Calculus, you are absolutely right!

it's been 4 years, and I've just recently realised your point

you have to be an extremly wonderful short term trader first, then consider this thread's idea. the 1st thing pipeasy's trading requires is to keep multiple small loss, the real trader understands what it takes!

with all due respect, what 60minute above acclaimed is simply confusing and misleading.

Quoting Calculus
{quote} But to use this strategy correctly one better be a good short term trader otherwise you're a) going to suffer far too many losses as you initially trade,
  • #6,124
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:29am Mar 6, 2014 9:29am
If we're all being honest I think we all know how hard it is to enter in and out of the market all day everyday, even when you win short term there's a feeling that you should of got more or you should of not given so much back.

Position trading means you will always be participating in the market and then it's about managing money, not entries or exits.

The difficult hurdle is moving from no positions to establishing some legs - but what ever approach you take it will be hard work, we love to underestimate the work involved and I presume it's why most pick short term trading, as it appears to be less work.

The question is why do we want to trade and what is the most likely to achieve that goal. (personal opinions, not looking for an argument)
tradewith60
  • #6,125
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:30am Mar 6, 2014 9:30am
Quoting charvo
lol, Calculus, you are absolutely right! it's been 4 years, and I've just recently realised your point you have to be an extremly wonderful short term trader first, then consider this thread's idea. the 1st thing pipeasy's trading requires is to keep multiple small loss, the real trader understands what it takes! with all due respect, what 60minute above acclaimed is simply confusing and misleading. {quote}
sure Charvo, it will take work and skill is needed...

edit:

according to the brokers data we're all actually not too bad at short term trading already, most of the time we pick good directions but we lose more than we win, so half the battle may already be won
tradewith60
  • #6,126
  • Mar 6, 2014 9:59am Mar 6, 2014 9:59am
you must be a profitable trader.

if one day i become one extremly profitable trader intraday, i'll start let some postions run 4 long time.

it is actually meaning that a trader has such an enermous edge against the market, even he let go some positions, he will still end-up profitable/BE. based on this bottom line, those free positions might often run and gain huge returns.

so an edge, a massive edge, is what one should try to get before apply pipeasy's concept. his concept is absolutely great, but he didn't make this point clear, which is a pity.

Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} sure Charvo, it will take work and skill is needed... edit: according to the brokers data we're all actually not too bad at short term trading already, most of the time we pick good directions but we lose more than we win, so half the battle may already be won
  • #6,127
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:00am Mar 6, 2014 10:00am
60. Yes, of course short term trading is very hard for the majority, that's why the majority lose or breakeven at best. But for G's strategy to work you MUST be a good short term operator otherwise you're going to too many 20 tick losses (or whatever your stop is, G suggest around 20 ticks). This is my main point.

With G's strategy it's not so much about making what you make when the markets move hard in your favour, it's about losing the least when you're fighting in the intraday trenches. So if one is good at that hand to hand combat (keeping losses well under control) then G's strategy is a winning one, and maybe even a massive winning one.

Then you have stacking, without aggressively stacking the strategy probably falls down. That amplfies the need to be able to short term trade well so if/when the markets make that big move the profits really roll in. And just to complicate the matter even more it's not just a big move you need, it's a perfect big move, ie one that doesn't snapback and take out all the breakeven stops, including yours, BEFORE price makes the real move. It's a guess, but I'd think that at least 60% of the big moves are perverse in their nature, ie the boys go for AND get those breakeven stops (the fact that everyone's out is the fuel needed to power the big move as many people are forced to re-enter). If that happens, you're now out of positions when the train powers out of the station.

I'm not knocking G's overall strategy, just pointing out its achilles heel (for most people).
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,128
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:09am Mar 6, 2014 10:09am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} yes, markets are the result of supply and demand, not denying that at all, or it's use in entering the market. My gripe is with using it for very small RR, and I mean less than 5R. I would look for an obvious trend on daily - gut feel and simple MA to give me direction for the day. Then take low risk entries of new demand. Repeat and hold everyday and then use weekly and monthly to diversify. Just like the OP suggested. I have a max of 3 attempts each day, maybe sometimes 4 or only 2 - As long as the market moves there will be opportunities...
Why don't you give an attempt to this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=444377 ?
  • #6,129
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:14am Mar 6, 2014 10:14am
Quoting Calculus
60. Yes, of course short term trading is very hard for the majority, that's why the majority lose or breakeven at best. But for G's strategy to work you MUST be a good short term operator otherwise you're going to too many 20 tick losses (or whatever your stop is, G suggest around 20 ticks). This is my main point. With G's strategy it's not so much about making what you make when the markets move hard in your favour, it's about losing the least when you're fighting in the intraday trenches. So if one is good at that hand to hand combat (keeping...
yes, I agree. I think the one failing of the threads was a good explanation of how to buy positions with low costs.
tradewith60
  • #6,130
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:16am Mar 6, 2014 10:16am
Quoting timos
{quote} Why don't you give an attempt to this http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=444377 ?
my win rate is under 30% so not really suited to that sort of approach, but thanks anyway
tradewith60
  • #6,131
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:18am Mar 6, 2014 10:18am
Timos

That link is great, thanks. I might just give it a try someday with of course a tiny amount of money. It's as much a test of personal psychology as anything.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,132
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:21am Mar 6, 2014 10:21am
Quoting 60minuteman
If we're all being honest I think we all know how hard it is to enter in and out of the market all day everyday, even when you win short term there's a feeling that you should of got more or you should of not given so much back. Position trading means you will always be participating in the market and then it's about managing money, not entries or exits. The difficult hurdle is moving from no positions to establishing some legs - but what ever approach you take it will be hard work, we love to underestimate the work involved and I presume it's why...
Yes mate: Bingo.
That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
  • #6,133
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:43am Mar 6, 2014 10:43am
I'm forever posting this, but if you really take the time to study the numbers it's a really clear example of what the math says with regards trading. But, for some reason we find it very hard to take that step (hence so many never making it, i presume)

http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2010/...placement.html
tradewith60
  • #6,134
  • Mar 6, 2014 10:53am Mar 6, 2014 10:53am
Quoting Calculus
Timos That link is great, thanks. I might just give it a try someday with of course a tiny amount of money. It's as much a test of personal psychology as anything.
Hi Calcus,
Yes it is and I will imply it soon, but now I am doing other things unrelated to forex and I need capital.
But I would do it with my own twist. Here is how I thought to do it.

Let's say we use 50 sl and 100 tp
Then I would take that 50 sl and divide it, lets say /3 so instead of doing 1 trade with 1 stop loss, I would do 3 trades with 15 sl each,until 100 pips tp is reached.
This way it will take more time, but also give more opportunities to grow.
  • #6,135
  • Mar 6, 2014 12:24pm Mar 6, 2014 12:24pm
Dice Game

So I did the dice game experiment with a online random number generator(not sure how legit it is). Anyways, theoretically you should win every 6 rolls. I had a string of 19 losses in a row! Does anyone know why this happens and what it is called?
  • #6,136
  • Mar 6, 2014 1:21pm Mar 6, 2014 1:21pm
Quoting pbylina
Dice Game So I did the dice game experiment with a online random number generator(not sure how legit it is). Anyways, theoretically you should win every 6 rolls. I had a string of 19 losses in a row! Does anyone know why this happens and what it is called?
I believe it's called random distribution

It's a reason a lot struggle because they're not expecting what is likely to occur

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tradewith60
  • #6,137
  • Mar 6, 2014 3:41pm Mar 6, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Glad to see this thread come back to life. What Calculus mentioned is absolutely rock solid FACT about this thread. It is the KEY ingredient to keep your nose above water when market conditions are not favorable/trending. - Trend follower > horrible stats, large drawdowns but excellent equity growth potential - Counter Trend > picture perfect stats, low drawdowns but limits equity growth potential - combining Trend + counter trend trading style will give you best of both worlds. Regarding Rags2Riches, I was also fascinated and gave it a...
Im convinced that all technical entry systems, given a decent sample size will end up around the 50% win rate mark, that's why I believe we have to stretch the RR ratio as far as possible. Most traders use too small a sample, use backtest results only, or were in favourable market conditions. Maintaining high win rate low RR trading Is clearly the hardest approach - hence the 90% lose myth, rumour, whatever
tradewith60
  • #6,138
  • Mar 6, 2014 5:23pm Mar 6, 2014 5:23pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Agree. There's got to be a better way to keep my sanity and make this journey worthwhile by spending less time/effort. Here's my TOP SECRET research project/hobby for this year to force me to learn MQL and build my own tools to enable me to select a pair > choose direction > pick TF and make an entry in under 5-10 mins. After that, you are at the mercy of whatever market wants to do and you have no control over it. the key is also to choose a strategy based on what your performance stats reveal. If you have x losses on a pair in a...
Holy mother, who's dashboard is that? - i think you left bollinger band squeeze out though
tradewith60
  • #6,139
  • Mar 6, 2014 5:42pm Mar 6, 2014 5:42pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I developed it using the concept introduced by hayseed and bandung members http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=267404 When it comes to technical indicators, I am not a believer of oscilators, cycles. Market throws a lot of curveballs at me. I rather not have indicators like RSI, Stock, bands, Ewaves create more garbage on my screen. Just horizontal lines are good enough for me
wow so much work gone into that, it must of been pretty clear that it couldn't help you trade profitably?
tradewith60
  • #6,140
  • Mar 6, 2014 6:18pm Mar 6, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} I began working on this in October as it became very tiring for me to watch and flip charts/ timeframes gazilion times every week. Trying to put everything I have learnt and do manually (except entries) to minimize my trading time and that is all there is to it. Indicators/price action/etc can never make anyone profitable. It has already helped me cut my screentime by over 50%. As I am not a coder, looking at freely available mql code and tweaking them is quite a challenge but fun at times to get my mind off everything else. I have developed...
I couldn't sleep at night with so much information and thought going round in my head.... still I'm way beyond saying anything won't work, I have learned my lesson on that one, although it does slip out once in a while.

Did you ever read trader888's posts - we could do with a few more like him around these parts.
tradewith60
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