EUR/CHF

Old corrlations don´t works anymore, JPY, GOLD, DAX. EURCHF is slowly going down because presure on USDCHF. Old fat US guys are buying CHF like new GOLD and they dont care. Swiss people is rich and they dont need to travel to Germany, because CHF is too high. DAX is up CHF still strong, JPY in near year top, CHF still strong. Forget EURCHF long trade mantra and face we will be in new range and it will be lower range. One day SNB will leave PEG, we still dont belive it is possible, and there will be one big burn after weekend. This pair is one of most dangerous on market. Today nice support, RSI push up, and lot of small players playing safe, most dangerous game. Good luck guys!

the current struggle - lets see if it can break upwards from this zone like last time

edit: seems not ATM

Sometimes I wish to be some poor f*** scalper who knows nothing about technical, buys the EC day low sell its high, when market continues its move sideways, creating false breakouts when it must had dropped down or broke up.
This buy low sell high if wanna compare it practically to what EC does, it can be calculated in a 60 pip opportunity of 10-15 pip on each trade, that equates a wide EC move to 1.2280 resistance now.
However, when it breaks out, I say Patience and Discipline pays much, instead of trading a temporarily range, can trade a new more profitable one, like I insist on EC can not go up before testing the 1.2180s, a break there will find it on 1.2110s next.
EC doesn't respect technicals mainly which is disgusting and set your nervous system on its peak, opposite of most other pairs, but having some patience will pay you it back sooner or later.

SNB tomorrow, nothing new, it all depends on EU and UC, hoping EC go to 1.2180s before the news and tumble to 1.2110s afterwards. Actually, was hoping to play a new range today 1.2180s to 1.220s, better than this stupid no reasonable 1.2205-1.2225 range.

Adding on technically speaking and tip to EU and UC traders too: I believe EC can test the 1.2110s or around that support area, because EU can test 1.3850s, UC can test 0.88 or somewhere there plus or minus, a breach of both pairs to these levels and we are going to test around the 1.40 and 0.86 = EC somewhere around 1.2110s
Nothing can stop this other than a surprising SNB statement or action I believe, and these levels are already good for shorting and longing both pairs for a comeback down and up respectively.

Some kind of reversal pattern with a break on H1 and also H4 enough for me to add l here...however tomorrows PA with news event can be tricky with
a lot of fakeouts

I bet Jordan wont be happy with 0,88 UCHF and besides I think in mid-long run:

US growth >> Swiss growth
US inflation >> Swiss inflation
US yields >> Swiss yields

lets see

edit: agree 1,211x is still in the cards

Just stay out and learn newbie!

My view: There are two elipsis in the chart. The first was in September. There was a big chance of tapering, and the market was USD long and CHF short. When FED did not taper, we could the CHF short positions liquidations for 15 days. It pushes the price to 1,22.

I think we could see the same liquidation in CHF short positions (and USD longs), because the Year end (As Brinks said it a few days ago). A lot of big player sold CHF against USD and EUR. The target was 0,98-1,0 in USD/CHF and 1,25-1,3 in EUR/CHF. Despite the lot of good news from EU and US, we could not manage this target. And in the other hand, there were better oportunitys in other pairs. I think this is the main reason why we are droping for 8 days.

The question is: what will be the low? We are in a big channel, the lower line is about 1,2150-60. This level is the 23,6 fibo of the last big movements. So if we could go to this level, this is a very good buying opportunity.

I think we do not need to hurry buying. In September the price was near the minimum for 4 days. So I closed my longs above 1,2250 and waiting. If we could go down to 1,216 I will buy, a big amount. If we could not break the 1,22 level for some days , I hope I could buy about 1,2210

Jordan just started to speak, and we dropped 6 points

hello simon
I see bullish right now on EUR/CHF

Is it okay to trust the SNB enough to martingale EurChf?

looks like we have retested tomorrows breakout from declining TL and bounced back - todays close will tell (added l)

Anyone at all thinking that EURCHF may now be a sell on rallies?

i would really like a chance to sell 1.2280.

Swiss economy doing well, and that last inflation print was higher than expected. This price action the past two weeks has been the liveliest this pair has been in a long while, wondering if it will test the peg some time next year if ECB eases.

If you can raise your head from under my belt, look at the mirror to see your reply then close your mouth

Nothing new after SNB, 1.2250 minor resistance to clear for a gooooooo to 1.2280s major resistance, 1.2180s minor support to clear for a goooooooo to 1.2110s major support.

Inflation, Inflation ! (always wonder whenever we get one positive figure - after 10 negative - VSPs (very serious people at hedge funds banks etc.) immediately start crying wolf)

DJ Swiss Nov Prod Import Price Index -0.4% YY; Seen At -0.2% YY
* DJ Swiss Nov Prod Import Price Index -0.1% MM; Seen At +0.2% MM
* DJ Swiss Nov Producer Price Index -0.1% On
* DJ Swiss Nov Import Price Index -0.2% On Mo
* DJ Swiss Nov Producer Price Index -0.2% On Year
* DJ Swiss Nov Import Price Index -1.0% On Year

I still see 1.2000 as very very strong support
So my strategy is simple, if the price will go lower i will buy more

My target is 1.24 - 1.25

Interesting to see that CHF strenght accross the board can be a consequence of taper and also non taper:

US TSYS/2Y: TD's Richard Gilhooly said Swiss franc strength today suggests
budding safe-haven bid emerging. "Today's renewed strength in Chf comes a day
before the taper showdown" and a technical chart "shows how Euro-Chf peaked on
May 22nd, which is the date taper was uttered by Bernanke before he later ate
his words," said Gilhooly. "While the first signs of safe-haven bid are
emerging, this should certainly bode well for the 2yr auction and 5yrs
tomorrow."
SWISS: With yen seeing safe-haven demand ahead of the Fed decision, it comes as
no surprise also to see the Swiss franc picking up steam. Euro-Swiss, at
Chf1.21959 currently (low earlier at Chf1.21903) has broken Chf1.2200 for the
first time since April. The break of Chf1.2200 led to some stop-loss selling,
with more expected if Chf1.2150 gives way. Dollar-Swiss, at Chf0.8869 (range
Chf0.8857/0.8895) is getting closer the Dec 11 lows around Chf0.8840. Traders
have explained that while tapering, whether in December, January or March, is
expected to push US Tsy yields higher, there is less consensus about FX
direction when tapering comes. Will the dollar track US yields higher or will
other global yields firm in tandem and narrow the interest rate differential?

An FOMC Trade, have Long EC 1.2185, take profit 1.2280s(manual, actual one 1.30, maybe the SNB decide to become Men for once), no stop loss.
Another Long would not be added before 1.2110s.
Might hedge with a short until 1.2110s if no announcement of tapering tomorrow. It may go to 1.2110s before FOMC anyway!!!
A bit of surprise to see EC break below 1.2180 today!!, that might open to 1.2110s!! What is the reason for FOMC at that level!!!!
My baby went as I saw it would do(a week ago) and a little more, despite EU and UC done nothing yet!!!
Haven't use my full power lots, no greed, no illusions, no big expectations, not expecting the best from the FED!!!

SNB says they've got unlimited amount of bids at 1.2000!

I fully trust the SNB & I am sure that they will put there stance into practice & fight till last man standing.
Now, a country of 6m people do not have unlimited liquidity, even CH...