EUR/CHF

Range trading for this pair until some key event driving this outside the 1.230 - 1.233 levels.....

Can't see any significant SNB intervention unless this tumbles back around the 1.2 level...

Swiss GDP much better than expected.
How long is it going to be before the SNB come under pressure to remove the 1.20 floor?

Hi guys,

Why would SNB remove the floor? It worked well for the past 2 years, all EUR problems are not solved, potential risks are still present. The strong Swiss export industry can not cope with an exchange rate that moves from EC: 1.00 to 1.30 in matters of days (Europe being 70% of the CH exports).

CH data (GDP, unemployments, etc) do little for the pair, CHF is a refuge currency, so if unemployment goes from 3.2 to 3.5%... who cares, really!!

Yes, a wider range between 1.228 to 1.236 & a narrower one 1.230 to 1.234. I agree, we will need something special to take the rates to get out of there. Personally, I see nothing in the ST.
Of course, real pressure could come from an indices consolidation (expected by all after the Xmas run). Very poor US data. For it to close higher: EUR confidence & employment rate to improve... All to say, we are not there yet.

So, play the range

I'm not saying they are going to

they haven't had to protect the floor for over a year

pressure from the G20 could start

Y/Y GDP previous: 2,5 expected: 1,7 Actual: 1,9
Q/Q previous: 0,5 expected: 0,4 Actual: 0,5

So the Q/Q GDP is stagnant, but the Y/Y is much worse then it was. (Yes a little bit better than expected)

Not game changer data

if anyone a bit puzzled what is happening with this pair in the mid-longer run

let me qoute a chart from the USDCHF thread posted by selym_co:



this with Simon's great chart with a possible consolidation on W1



might gives the answer why we are stucked here and point to fireworks possibility soon

added another long at 1.2288

stop 1.2275 profit 1.2320

Hey Swissie...Nice set up. I've placed a LMT LONG order at 1.2278 and also expecting a rebound...good luck

we have reached two very strong support lines at 1,2275. It should be bounce from here. The range is only 75 pips!. When will it break out?

If this bounce is not enough to break out 1,2350, we need to go lower for some fresh, strong buyers, who could manage the break out.

looks quite a struggle ATM and no bounce. maybe a beartrap next. or bear

Hi pip it really isn't worth trading at the moment.

There was a time when this would go up before The SNB meet but now it doesn't do anything.

Hopefully it will break to the downside.

The SNB have been saying for 2 years now that the franc is overvalued but won't do anything to weaken it more.

Even dollar swissie can't rally.

Swissy seeing some general strength; UBS comments noted
By Gerry Davies | Wed, Dec 04 2013, 12:13 GMT
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Swissy has seen some general improvement today.
EUR/CHF is down at 1.2262 from the 1.2295 which greeted me.
Think this strength has it's origins in some bullish comments coming out of UBS.
In a client piece they've opined 'the swiss franc looks less and less overvalued'
Another exert
'The stalemate between safe haven outflows (as euro zone settles) and trade inflows might continue for many months. The risk is that eventually the safe haven position will be eroded while the trade surplus remains. If so, further appreciation pressure on the franc might become SIZEABLE.'

Today close is key. Below 1,2280 bearish targeting 1,2250 and 1,2220. Above 1,2280 daily reversal candle. Test again 1,2300-1,2330

to me currently one part of the answer why we are here is the struggle @uchf (this is a mistery compared to UJ for example) - that should be resolved soon on yields and growth but also from tech side

let me quote a chart from the uchf forum a usual egg chart from DS



lets see

Yes it is very interesting why uchf is so weak. Good ADP, GDP Claims from US and we are near0.9000.

May be some year end factor too.

Why we are trading EURCHF?

Interesting read: http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...s/#more-317815

another reason why we're struggling here... probably after all of these underwater positions are closed (with a loss) then we will move upwards
could mean a slow and painful process

I take it the inflation figure this morning is whats making this move down?

long @1,223 of course...

Yes I think so - it's the major cause coupled with a no-surprise ECB speech.

What about the surprisingly good US NFP? well it dropped mostly after NFP announcement if I see right.

Swiss CPI=0.0% is still much lower than EU's rate, although EU is declining. The current difference of CPI (EU-CH) is around 0.7% and gap closing.
This makes EURCHF harder to go up anymore, only downwards.

There's an article at snbchf.com that the future is short EURCHF, not long partly due to this closing of CPI gap. And of course the 1.2000 floor is here to stay for as 'long as needed'.

Worst Article to ever read. Teaching newbies to the Forex world to trade badly based on wrong info and predictions, No rely on technicals but some "fundamentals" that are wrong at end because it's all rumors.

The whole article is about some guy of 89 EC winning trades best account history result, are you kidding me
I bet that guy has many positions opened at this moment in the 1.23 down to 1.2230 range waiting for the comeback Is that's what Forex forums are teaching traders to do

Who's gonna work like that must not be here trading Forex but in the casino, can have more luck there and some hotties by the way

Isn't it better to have no open positions at every drop of EC, buying and closing according to the daily movement relying on technicals????

I name it loss when lots are reserved to buy EC on the 1.2250s and it goes down to 1.2215 without taking the opportunity to exit and enter many trades when EC was moving between 1.2250 to 1.2280, same said for when EC moved long time between 1.2280 to 1.2350 plus or minus some pips.
Even if it would go up later on(maybe weeks months or!!who knows!), when I supposedly have 50 lots for an EC account and I throw half or more of it on 1.2250 to 1.2300, buying crazy like that guy said all the way until it reaches 1.21!!
Isn't it better to use that 50 lots buying 1.2250-1.2280 according to current market conditions and my technicals.
When I know its going down, I buy again in the 1.2215-1.2250 like what was on Friday(might continue if no willingness to break 1.2214 to reach 1.2180s).
Why use half or less power lots only because he knows nothing about trading technicals, instead using full power at each price range movement???
When EC turned 1.23 to resistance I was exiting my longs at the very last decimals of the 1.2298 knowing it is going down, same for the 1.2250 on Friday and so on will be.

Regardless of what pair you're trading, this strategy must be a basic to follow.
It is another type of stop loss and better because it's nearly zero loss.
I know many would say, "how in hell will I know where EC is going next?"
I will answer, you might be wrong sometimes, missing some opportunities and am not far from that, missed some opportunities when expected EC to drop few weeks ago depending on my technicals, but the pair kept ranging to 1.2350-70 instead of breaking down 1.23
But who cares about some few misses when I can take advantage of every range of the drop. giving me no open positions at each moment, using my full power at the right time and price/s. And, so what if I miss sometimes longing EC when it turns mixed, I instantly use the lots reserved for EC on other pairs, adding the lots to my overall trading there.

EC new resistance to beat is 1.2230s, a drop to 1.2280s, possibly 1.2270s too, down there is 1.2110s.
Up 1.2230 if becomes support again, is 1.2280s for the time being

You might not be right all the time, 3/4 of the times is gooooood and above all you're trading technicals, not hoping SNB intervene on the wrong levels and betting on rumors