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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,441
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:14pm Nov 26, 2013 4:14pm
that's because your chart is the weekly ...I was showing the immediate daily range. ...I would say more a sustained break above 6350 ish former weekly swing high from December 2012 is what the bulls need to achieve in the first instance (should 6256/59 give.) Re Bears losing the game - I bet a lot of stops are above 6256/59 so those bears may lose.

Best Wishes.

Quoting ffleo
{quote} I have more data than your daily of only couple months. Bears wont lose this game until weekly closes above 1.63. 1.63 is not that easy to crack. {image}
it's all gone a bit........
  • #354,442
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:21pm Nov 26, 2013 4:21pm
Quoting petetong
Hello all thread readers The top of the daily range shown in pic below looks more vulnerable to a break out, than does the bottom of it, certainly at the moment. Much of yesterday's fall after a test on the top of that zone has been reclaimed by the bulls. Any better than 0.8% number on the 2nd estimate Uk's 3rd Qtr Gdp read could see just such an eventuality ? I bet the longer term bears are sweating it again (well those who have not already been liquidated by having stops in that daily range,) ... some bearish voices here have fallen silent in...
I am currently bearish, and I certainly have not fallen silent

My view is that the GDP is already priced in and only a better GDP estimate than the prelim in October (0.8%) will have a chance of making this pair go nuclear on the bullish side.

My justification from a technical perspective is the range within which this pair has been bound, the fact that the bottom of the range has already been breached, plus the very bullish prospects for the USD. All this is besides the fact that the highest probability EW count is bearish.

Of course no position is taken without risks and it is crucial to understand them...

1. We see a GDP print tomorrow that is higher than expectation. We're not exactly sure how much expectation has been priced in but I am extremely confident that at least 0.8% is fully baked into the price... possible a bit more.

2. Even if the GDP does not exceed what is priced in, if Japan will continue to heavily buy up Eurozone and British assets as opposed to JGBs, then both the Euro and Cable will continue to find bids into the US holidays low liquidity without much opposition, even if Cable falls initially.

3. The retail crowd are still heavily net short Cable. Even though they have reduced their short exposure in the last few stop hunt campaigns, they still remain net short. Therefore, even if tomorrow's GDP number is a miss, there is a risk of a final stop hunt to clear the board before it is beaten down.

So, understanding the potential risks and rewards, I am better able to plan to trade the event with minimal risk and hopefully maximum reward.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,443
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:49pm Nov 26, 2013 4:49pm
At this point I think it's anyones guess. We are at the top of a range. A few months back we were making a bottom and some were probably betting on further downside while others were betting on a correction.
  • #354,444
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:51pm Nov 26, 2013 4:51pm
Evening,

Waiting for tomorrows GDP, if its not up to scratch (.9+) will look to enter short to head back down to 16140.

EF
  • #354,445
  • Nov 26, 2013 4:56pm Nov 26, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Baggi
At this point I think it's anyones guess. We are at the top of a range. A few months back we were making a bottom and some were probably betting on further downside while others were betting on a correction.
Exactly. It could go either way. There will always be differing views and sentiments. That is what makes a market. If everyone wanted to sell, would would buy what they were selling? and vice versa.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,446
  • Nov 26, 2013 6:09pm Nov 26, 2013 6:09pm
Right now it looks to me like we're still in this upward channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart.JPG Size: 181 KB
  • #354,447
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:34pm Nov 26, 2013 9:34pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} Hey, looks interesting. Can you explain ?
Good day to you, Lumesh

It seems I owe you quite a few responses - missed some of your posts. This was not on purpose..

It's just some digital filters with RSI brought into the mix. Do not want to say more at this point. But far from a trading system as it stands. On the 5min - you will see one or two false signals ( or then less ideal) - which is good on the one hand. 100% winning signals will have me worried.But have to now find a tool to select the "better" ones.

Still work in progress. It allowed my to scalp the 5min just now for a few - I'm quite excited about this. And I have learned over the years - not to get too excited too early on. As it normally leads to disappointment. I will therefor continue testing in the background for a while still - and remain realistic as to the possible outcomes.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdm5.png Size: 89 KB
  • #354,448
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:55pm Nov 26, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Someone seems to be in a bad mood, calling me names and stuff... show whatever you want, cuz you're muted i get to pick what i want to see from you also my pass embarassments only shows im human and i too can get things wrong sooo have a nice day.
No one cares if your wrong, no one cares if you don't understand that Carney comes to the UK he will do as he is told and be whatever the men running the UK from behind the scenes want him to be. Lying about positions tells me your posts are about as much use as a used condom.

What people are interested in is an entry and exit point, not a fabricated story plan in an attempt to cover up already bodged fundamental analysis.

Best you leave it be and offer up an apology to those who may have been mislead. That's what a man does, boy.
  • #354,449
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:57pm Nov 26, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, Lumesh It seems I owe you quite a few responses - missed some of your posts. This was not on purpose.. It's just some digital filters with RSI brought into the mix. Do not want to say more at this point. But far from a trading system as it stands. On the 5min - you will see one or two false signals ( or then less ideal) - which is good on the one hand. 100% winning signals will have me worried.But have to now find a tool to select the "better" ones. Still work in progress. It allowed my to scalp the 5min just now...
Good Day Sir,

How much back testing have you done on this formula?

Best Regards
  • #354,450
  • Nov 26, 2013 9:59pm Nov 26, 2013 9:59pm
monster is back. My worst fear comes true. 1.6136 to 1.6228. wow. on back of what???. no news. may be 1.63 is what it wants now or is this what the big players want bears to give up
  • #354,451
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:00pm Nov 26, 2013 10:00pm
Quoting mima
{quote} {quote} Are you going to put on youtube.com your fight and then here in FF?
Good Day,

This will be my first and last post to you I suspect based on what I have just read through. Please do not partially quote me, it's very easy to take my meaning out of context. Yes I am very frustrated, cable and geppy just won't lay down and die. Currently I sit in the red spx500, big time in the red geppy, red cable. All is well that ends well. Hopefully
  • #354,452
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:03pm Nov 26, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting petetong
Hello all thread readers The top of the daily range shown in pic below looks more vulnerable to a break out, than does the bottom of it, certainly at the moment. Much of yesterday's fall after a test on the top of that zone has been reclaimed by the bulls. Any better than 0.8% number on the 2nd estimate Uk's 3rd Qtr Gdp read could see just such an eventuality ? I bet the longer term bears are sweating it again (well those who have not already been liquidated by having stops in that daily range,) ... some bearish voices here have fallen silent in...
Dear Petetong,

Would be great if all of those voices rolled over, my chances of success would be much higher, long may it continue!

Best Regards
  • #354,453
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:15pm Nov 26, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} Good Day Sir, How much back testing have you done on this formula? Best Regards
Sir,

It's quite resource heavy - so back testing is painfully slow. To answer your question - not a lot. Here is the Cable Daily. Only 8 signals issued since Dec 2009.. These do not repaint.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 91 KB
  • #354,454
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:22pm Nov 26, 2013 10:22pm
good god this pump and dump guys is so annoying....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,455
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:32pm Nov 26, 2013 10:32pm
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} No one cares if your wrong, no one cares if you don't understand that Carney comes to the UK he will do as he is told and be whatever the men running the UK from behind the scenes want him to be. Lying about positions tells me your posts are about as much use as a used condom. What people are interested in is an entry and exit point, not a fabricated story plan in an attempt to cover up already bodged fundamental analysis. Best you leave it be and offer up an apology to those who may have been mislead. That's what a man does, boy.
True, no body care if im wrong... atleast not enough to care if i offer up an apology like you do so you are probably one of the many people here who actually took peoples advise on trade ideas when you should really trade your own plan...
and the fact that you think people are only interested in entry and exit point tells me you are just one of the many here who are hoping somebody would give you entry and exit points so you too can do absolutely nothing in analysis and hope for a high way to heaven full of pips by following people's signals....
I wonder if your ignorance is why your trades like Geppy, or cable are deep in red...


its true my analysis are wrong from time to time but i am not god and im not always right. but one thing for sure is i dont owe you or anyone here any apologies, its probably best you get that in your head.
also you better stop insulting people because they made a mistake, as if you never made one....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,456
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:39pm Nov 26, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} True, no body care if im wrong... atleast not enough to care if i offer up an apology like you do so you are probably one of the many people here who actually took peoples advise on trade ideas when you should really trade your own plan... and the fact that you think people are only interested in entry and exit point tells me you are just one of the many here who are hoping somebody would give you entry and exit points so you too can do absolutely nothing in analysis and hope for a high way to heaven full of pips by following people's signals.......
Why are you intent on making me pummel you into dust? firstly you insulted me back at 1.5 for going long, called a fool alsorts, dont back Carney blah blah blah, not an ounce of consideration for a market. Now there is a fool if ever I saw one.

Secondly my reference to entry and exit is this : dont talk shit about fake positions and getting filled when the price misses by five whole pips. Especially when it is in an attempt to cover up your pathetic, overly biased, hog wash, fundamental analysis. Just say 'Sorry gents i fucked that one right up' and move on.

You owe all an apology for your blatant lies. End of boy.

Mistakes happen everyday. If I am wrong I quickly hold my hand up, I don't try to lie my way out of it. There lay the difference between a man and a boy.
  • #354,457
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:42pm Nov 26, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} Why are you intent on making me pummel you into dust? firstly you insulted me back at 1.5 for going long, called a fool alsorts, dont back Carney blah blah blah, not an ounce of consideration for a market. Now there is a fool if ever I saw one. Secondly my reference to entry and exit is this : dont talk shit about fake positions and getting filled when the price misses by five whole pips. Especially when it is in an attempt to cover up your pathetic, overly biased, hog wash, fundamental analysis. Just say 'Sorry gents i fucked that one right...
pump and dump I think some pro should dump you now because you are making this thread unhealthy.
  • #354,458
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:45pm Nov 26, 2013 10:45pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} True, no body care if im wrong... atleast not enough to care if i offer up an apology like you do so you are probably one of the many people here who actually took peoples advise on trade ideas when you should really trade your own plan... and the fact that you think people are only interested in entry and exit point tells me you are just one of the many here who are hoping somebody would give you entry and exit points so you too can do absolutely nothing in analysis and hope for a high way to heaven full of pips by following people's signals.......
Oh sh..! the f......g kids are at it again http://www.sherv.net/cm/emoticons/sleep/yawn.gif
  • #354,459
  • Nov 26, 2013 10:51pm Nov 26, 2013 10:51pm
Quoting Makavell
{quote} Oh sh..! the f......g kids are at it again {image}
im more curious why that guy had to be so offended that ive returned.
he's the one who should get over it, im the one who went away for a couple of months to calm things down. first thing i came back is i got called names
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,460
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:45pm Nov 26, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting fxtyrant
... first thing ...
Respect FF rule #1 then post whatever you want and don't give a shit for anyone's comment.

use this as well if needed it:
http://www.forexfactory.com/report.php?p=7117211
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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