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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,421
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:33am Nov 26, 2013 11:33am
if it likes let it stay in this position for the next 4 months let it even go to 64, i will add to shorts . i will only give up at 71. Goodday
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #354,422
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:34am Nov 26, 2013 11:34am
this is not good
  • #354,423
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:36am Nov 26, 2013 11:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm not suggesting that we will see 1.59 tomorrow. I was only suggesting that just because tomorrow's UK GDP comes in strong, it does not mean that price will shoot to 1.63 as suggested by akki in the below quoted post... {quote}
Fundamentals are like dating a Woman - She will say 100 things, you would be foolish to assume all are equally important.. you would also be foolish to assume what was important for her in previous situation will be important for her in next situation!!

hence why i keep saying fundamentals are subjective, with subjective probabilities embedded.. cas ein point i am expecting 1.6350 tomorrow on moderately good gdp coz of holiday week.. wouldnt expect that if not for holiday weekend!

anyways i am liking this rip higher.. tomorrow stops will be hunted..

good luck
  • #354,424
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:41am Nov 26, 2013 11:41am
Currently only two pairs are running show: EU and GU...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,425
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:44am Nov 26, 2013 11:44am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} Fundamentals are like dating a Woman - She will say 100 things, you would be foolish to assume all are equally important.. you would also be foolish to assume what was important for her in previous situation will be important for her in next situation!! hence why i keep saying fundamentals are subjective, with subjective probabilities embedded.. cas ein point i am expecting 1.6350 tomorrow on moderately good gdp coz of holiday week.. wouldnt expect that if not for holiday weekend! anyways i am liking this rip higher.. tomorrow stops will...
Ahhhh the key point you left out of your original post... low liquidity = exaggerated moves.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,426
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:48am Nov 26, 2013 11:48am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ahhhh the key point you left out of your original post... low liquidity = exaggerated moves.
wrong equation.. correct equation is as follows

low liquidity + strong fundies + infinite stops in a narrow zone + event risk = massive spike = bullish delight = bearish orgy (where one bull fucks more than one bears)

again be safe!
  • #354,427
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:51am Nov 26, 2013 11:51am
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is not good
That all depends which way you look at it. If it's a stop hunt to clean out the crowded short side, then it's a very good thing.
However, if it's a breakout of a bull flag, then hello 1.66x by end of year. It's hard to imagine, but then a 1.38 Euro is equally hard to imagine.

The USD will be a major disappointment to me if it breaks major support.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,428
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:53am Nov 26, 2013 11:53am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} wrong equation.. correct equation is as follows low liquidity + strong fundies + infinite stops in a narrow zone + event risk = massive spike = bullish delight = bearish orgy (where one bull fucks more than one bears) again be safe!
You really like reading your own stuff, don't you?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,429
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:59am Nov 26, 2013 11:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That all depends which way you look at it. If it's a stop hunt to clean out the crowded short side, then it's a very good thing. However, if it's a breakout of a bull flag, then hello 1.66x by end of year. It's hard to imagine, but then a 1.38 Euro is equally hard to imagine. The USD will be a major disappointment to me if it breaks major support.
I havent got a clue for a while now..this thing just isnt behaving..its like my edge aint working
I have no idea if gdp will read bad or good..but i have to assume a bad figure will make her drop hard
  • #354,430
  • Nov 26, 2013 11:59am Nov 26, 2013 11:59am
I like what piptrapper has to say, very useful stuff. Fundamentals are undervalued on this forum, they give you context so that you can proceed with optimal position sizing and trade targets. So fundamentally... UK data has been good and GBP will be strong.... until the data isnt good.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #354,431
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:01pm Nov 26, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That all depends which way you look at it. If it's a stop hunt to clean out the crowded short side, then it's a very good thing. However, if it's a breakout of a bull flag, then hello 1.66x by end of year. It's hard to imagine, but then a 1.38 Euro is equally hard to imagine. The USD will be a major disappointment to me if it breaks major support.


Think that 1.6250 is easily the biggest level across FX markets at the moment... if that goes all short bets are off.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #354,432
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:05pm Nov 26, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting Citiboy
I like what piptrapper has to say, very useful stuff. Fundamentals are undervalued on this forum, they give you context so that you can proceed with optimal position sizing and trade targets. So fundamentally... UK data has been good and GBP will be strong.... until the data isnt good.
hey cityboy dragi when did piptrapper saythat??
  • #354,433
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:11pm Nov 26, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting mima
BofA again says sell EU: http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=459232 Why?

Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} because the chart are saying so ..
Quoting nAVIN2007
this is not good
It is time for you to look your chart and see what chart say...before you say to anyone anything.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,434
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:16pm Nov 26, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey cityboy dragi when did piptrapper saythat??
I didn't say it. I implied it. Data is good until it isn't... or until it is priced in.... or over priced. Then markets adjust / take profits, etc.
If you're looking for a super rally tomorrow, then GDP has to beat what is already priced in... and I have a feeling that there is more priced in than the actual expectations.

Also consider the USD side of this pair.

and another thing... Never discount the technicals.

In short, if we get an excellent beat on GDP expectations, we get a stop hunt
If we get blown away with an incredibly high GDP, we get a ball busting rally with good momentum.
However, if we only get 0.8% or lower, we either get a whimper or a meltdown.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,435
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:24pm Nov 26, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting mima
{quote} {quote} {quote} It is time for you to look your chart and see what chart say...before you say to anyone anything.
why??
  • #354,436
  • Nov 26, 2013 12:39pm Nov 26, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you, Want to show something I'm working on. I call it the dip finder. Still testing - but looks promising.. {image}
Hey,

looks interesting. Can you explain ?
  • #354,437
  • Edited 2:42pm Nov 26, 2013 1:41pm | Edited 2:42pm
Quoting ffleo
Since October 2012, the Japanese Yen has a large impact on the FX market. The japanese keep buying everything under the sun, and all currencies not named Yen are affected. So when we analyze any currency pair, we cannot neglect the buying power of yen. Now I continue my analysis with two weekly yen charts: USD/JPY and GBP/JPY. Both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are at major resistance right now. If the resistance hold, that is good news for cable bears and we have targets below the current price. If the resistance cannot hold, what are the price targets for...
Nothing wrong here. Let UJ and GJ retrace, it is the best for cable bears.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #354,438
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:02pm Nov 26, 2013 2:02pm
Hello all thread readers

The top of the daily range shown in pic below looks more vulnerable to a break out, than does the bottom of it, certainly at the moment. Much of yesterday's fall after a test on the top of that zone has been reclaimed by the bulls. Any better than 0.8% number on the 2nd estimate Uk's 3rd Qtr Gdp read could see just such an eventuality ?

I bet the longer term bears are sweating it again (well those who have not already been liquidated by having stops in that daily range,) ... some bearish voices here have fallen silent in last few days, others insisting they will be proved right re their bearish viewpoint for this pairing (ie within their stops.)

Best Wishes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 61 KB
it's all gone a bit........
  • #354,439
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:08pm Nov 26, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting petetong
Hello all thread readers The top of the daily range shown in pic below looks more vulnerable to a break out, than does the bottom of it, certainly at the moment. Much of yesterday's fall after a test on the top of that zone has been reclaimed by the bulls. Any better than 0.8% number on the 2nd estimate Uk's 3rd Qtr Gdp read could see just such an eventuality ? I bet the longer term bears are sweating it again (well those who have not already been liquidated by having stops in that daily range,) ... some bearish voices here have fallen silent in...
I have more data than your daily of only couple months. Bears wont lose this game until weekly closes above 1.63. 1.63 is not that easy to crack.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_195.png Size: 343 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #354,440
  • Nov 26, 2013 2:10pm Nov 26, 2013 2:10pm
Monthly candle of course hasn't closed yet but the top of the triangle on that time frame is under attack and vulnerable to a break north...plenty of potential resistance points above (as ever)...bulls will have to be strong to sustain a break above ?

Best Wishes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mthly....jpg Size: 110 KB
it's all gone a bit........
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