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  • #353,501
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:32pm Nov 18, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} if he looks at a chart of spanish equity and sees that it has underperformed US equity and comes up with the conclusion that it is undervalued then he is delusional. But we need suckers in the market for us to profit.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,502
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:34pm Nov 18, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting Bones
b very sweet as bears there b angry 58 held {quote}
58?
Care to elaborate please Bones?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,503
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:35pm Nov 18, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting 45Condor
{quote} He was a genius... The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it. George Bernard Shaw
Good night Sir,

I must rest, you'll appreciate this...

“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.”
― Albert Einstein

G/F .... (good fortune the other version goes to the thread spammer)
  • #353,504
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:35pm Nov 18, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} very true that we could look at this in EURs, but I think the context was for capital inflows - therefore whatever we consider, both assets need to have the same ccy denomination. if "Mr Macro" Aki300986 has knowledge of capital flows for Europe, he would know to look at EUR cross currency basis swaps to determine true demand for speculative EURs to invest. but who knows - doubt he does...
interesting why you say so. my understanding of the basis swaps is that it is used "predominantly" by broker dealers/ banks.. and a fair amount of credit risk premia is embedded in it.. eur/usd basis swap will have the credit risk of the european banks embeeded in the spread and hence is not purely a function of speculative demand for dollar..

what i mean is that with credit condiition on the up in europe one should see the" libor-ois" tighten and so do the xx ccy basis swaps across board!
  • #353,505
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:36pm Nov 18, 2013 2:36pm
1.58855 support bounce is temporary ,
= bull trap
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #353,506
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:41pm Nov 18, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} interesting why you say so. my understanding of the basis swaps is that it is used "predominantly" by broker dealers/ banks.. and a fair amount of credit risk premia is embedded in it.. eur/usd basis swap will have the credit risk of the european banks embeeded in the spread and hence is not purely a function of speculative demand for dollar.. what i mean is that with credit condiition on the up in europe one should see the" libor-ois" tighten and so do the xx ccy basis swaps across board!
This is true - it does have credit risk which is filtered down from soverign to counterparty, but the thing is credit conditions are a key determininant in capital flows and investment and so it shows a truer picture of flows as opposed to equity. It does also discount for interest rate risk so once again another thing it covers.
  • #353,507
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:44pm Nov 18, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} if he looks at a chart of spanish equity and sees that it has underperformed US equity and comes up with the conclusion that it is undervalued then he is delusional. But we need suckers in the market for us to profit.
alright brother.. if me thinking that spanish and italian macro bode well and thus investors who by nature are forward looking ,desperately looking to park their cash for a return and dont wanna touch emerging markets due to relatively closed economy/legal risks and impending sell off due to tightening would be delighted to park their cash in european equities makes me a sucker then so be it!..

in short europe is the new emerging markets for next 2-3 years with possibly better risk adjusted return!!
  • #353,508
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:49pm Nov 18, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} This is true - it does have credit risk which is filtered down from soverign to counterparty, but the thing is credit conditions are a key determininant in capital flows and investment and so it shows a truer picture of flows as opposed to equity. It does also discount for interest rate risk so once again another thing it covers.
agreed.. i wasnt meaning to say due to equities capital flows are increasing. i just used it as an asset class example as its is mostly observed by all!!

in my earlier post i did mention, bonds , real assets everything in europe offers better risk adjusted returns now that Draghi has his OMT ready!

investors just need the confidence push of knowing ECB has the means to support, in case need be.. what made ecb not support was the fact that it cant buy outright bonds..
  • #353,509
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:50pm Nov 18, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} alright brother.. if me thinking that spanish and italian macro bode well and thus investors who by nature are forward looking ,desperately looking to park their cash for a return and dont wanna touch emerging markets due to relatively closed economy/legal risks and impending sell off due to tightening would be delighted to park their cash in european equities makes me a sucker then so be it!.. in short europe is the new emerging markets for next 2-3 years with possibly better risk adjusted return!!

I think you are confusing trader vs investor. Nobody knows what will happen next 6months let alone 2-3yrs.
We could see QE reduction very soon and dollar strengthening in massive way.One thing is certain we can't continue printing money.
I have bigger picture in mind always but aware I am a trader not an investor.
Euro zone has 12-27% unemployment and with global stagnated economies no country is dominate to cause extreme disparity.I think we will have relevantly short range market with exception of Yen.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,510
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:51pm Nov 18, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} alright brother.. if me thinking that spanish and italian macro bode well and thus investors who by nature are forward looking ,desperately looking to park their cash for a return and dont wanna touch emerging markets due to relatively closed economy/legal risks and impending sell off due to tightening would be delighted to park their cash in european equities makes me a sucker then so be it!.. in short europe is the new emerging markets for next 2-3 years with possibly better risk adjusted return!!
don't get me wrong, there is opportunities in some Periph Europe, but It's not undervalued if you consider generic P/E's or the overall macro picture, but it has to be a stock pickers market, with best performance coming from those equities reliant on Northern europe or America for sales and have just been marked down because of Spain/Italy etc.

technically, I bought a while ago - http://macrocredit.blogspot.co.uk/20...-to-11500.html

but not for valuations, for techs.
  • #353,511
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:55pm Nov 18, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting Bones
I think whats important is the fundamental animal generally is far bigger than your knowledge of this one point ,if correct or not ,and its not tradable as I see eu and gu down lol ej also ,au down ,$ gonna be very bullish {quote}

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  • #353,512
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:57pm Nov 18, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} don't get me wrong, there is opportunities in some Periph Europe, but It's not undervalued if you consider generic P/E's or the overall macro picture, but it has to be a stock pickers market, with best performance coming from those equities reliant on Northern europe or America for sales and have just been marked down because of Spain/Italy etc. technically, I bought a while ago - http://macrocredit.blogspot.co.uk/20...-to-11500.html but not for valuations, for techs.
hey jeremy- i like your work! browsed through.. good man... i am going to keep an eye on you!!
  • #353,513
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:00pm Nov 18, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I think you are confusing trader vs investor. Nobody knows what will happen next 6months let alone 2-3yrs. We could see QE reduction very soon and dollar strengthening in massive way.One thing is certain we can't continue printing money. I have bigger picture in mind always but aware I am a trader not an investor. Euro zone has 12-27% unemployment and with global stagnated economies no country is dominate to cause extreme disparity.I think we will have relevantly short range market with exception of Yen.
hey Davit! i am a trader sir.. i just try to figure out what investors might wnna do, especially on the turning points and trade accordingly.. its safer and hig probability of sucess

i was the one buying eur/usd when ecb cut rate as it was 100% certain that i will make money due to fundamental,macro,liquidity conditions in europe!!

and Go Long NOK/SEK brother.. purely fundamental good risk/reward trade... this is how i trade..
  • #353,514
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:05pm Nov 18, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Bones
I think whats important is the fundamental animal generally is far bigger than your knowledge of this one point ,if correct or not ,and its not tradable as I see eu and gu down lol ej also ,au down ,$ gonna be very bullish {quote}
yeah, we do not have that deep pocket to trade the fundamental animal, and we cannot hold positions for a few months.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #353,515
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:08pm Nov 18, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey Davit! i am a trader sir.. i just try to figure out what investors might wnna do, especially on the turning points and trade accordingly.. its safer and hig probability of sucess i was the one buying eur/usd when ecb cut rate as it was 100% certain that i will make money due to fundamental,macro,liquidity conditions in europe!! and Go Long NOK/SEK brother.. purely fundamental good risk/reward trade... this is how i trade..
you need to have a deep pocket like Warren Buffett, and be able to hold your positions for months or years, to trade fundamentally.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #353,516
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:11pm Nov 18, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting akki300986
... i just try to figure out what investors might wnna do, ...
Well, For my level of intelligence is much easier to let Market Makers and those who can move the price to interpret all kind of news and I just try at my best to follow them...I am really bad in predicting...
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #353,517
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:13pm Nov 18, 2013 3:13pm
Got all my conditions met on GJ short and can't pull the trigger.I generally don't trade yen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.daily.png Size: 33 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,518
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:13pm Nov 18, 2013 3:13pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you need to have a deep pocket like Warren Buffett, and be able to hold your positions for months or years, to trade fundamentally.
Absolutely wrong!!!

1) Trade in the DIRECTION of fundamentals
2) Use TECHNICALS as entry and exit points in the DIRECTION of fundamentals

but this i mean currently look only to get Long Eur and GBP, dont short it at any point but look to get in longs and out of them at technical support ad resistance lines..

resist the temptation of shorting at 1.6250 once out of long and if it drops 100-150 pips look to go long again provided fundamentals still point upwards....
  • #353,519
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:16pm Nov 18, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting buytosell
{quote} Well, For my level of intelligence is much easier to let Market Makers and those who can move the price to interpret all kind of news and I just try at my best to follow them...
you are an honest man, most people dont use fundamentals for the same reason, they dont get it! hence excuses of pocket size, holding period..

long holding period, infrequent positions saves cost..cost saved is profit made..
  • #353,520
  • Nov 18, 2013 3:18pm Nov 18, 2013 3:18pm
eur usd just finished pull b pack ,you have brought a retrace ,major pivot =gone rising tl -gone ,your fundi view will be wrong my friend if you stay bullish imo


Quoting akki300986
{quote} Absolutely wrong!!! 1) Trade in the DIRECTION of fundamentals 2) Use TECHNICALS as entry and exit points in the DIRECTION of fundamentals but this i mean currently look only to get Long Eur and GBP, dont short it at any point but look to get in longs and out of them at technical support ad resistance lines.. resist the temptation of shorting at 1.6250 once out of long and if it drops 100-150 pips look to go long again provided fundamentals still point upwards....
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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