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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #352,661
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:34am Nov 11, 2013 9:34am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i am sorry iof i was too agressive i am sick and tired of people looking at dollar index and concluding "it is at a mojor resistance hence i expect eur, gbp ets to go up" because actually only 20% of the picture is at a major resistance and other 80% can be at a major support!!! i don't want people to risk their money on such a stupid analysis!!
Well, in defence of the stupid, it all depends where the strength or weakness is coming from. If it is due mostly to USD macro events, then the DXY, USDOLLAR and other such USD indices at resistance or support will make a difference on other currencies vs the USD. It's only logical. The only question will be the degree of that effect. Obviously if the macro event is more Euro related, then no USD index is going to guide you into profit, but more likely to a margin call.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,662
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:37am Nov 11, 2013 9:37am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} lol, those MA's ... isnt here where they're actually supposed to come in to play? channel breakout, resistance made support, looks overall very bullish for USD on daily
Yep, but for me that bullishness is not yet confirmed.
I need to see the USD retest that channel with a good bounce upward and a breach of the current high... but that's just me
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,663
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:38am Nov 11, 2013 9:38am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i am sorry iof i was too agressive i am sick and tired of people looking at dollar index and concluding "it is at a mojor resistance hence i expect eur, gbp ets to go up" because actually only 20% of the picture is at a major resistance and other 80% can be at a major support!!! i don't want people to risk their money on such a stupid analysis!!

Just curious why you would not flip those numbers 80% at resistance 20% support or choose any random number.
To me its unknown variable unless you are a major player and hold clients order flow info even then you would know only small piece of the puzzle.
regards

Price is below weekly 200MA often used by institutions as barometer of sentiment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #352,664
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:38am Nov 11, 2013 9:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep, but for me that bullishness is not yet confirmed. I need to see the USD retest that channel with a good bounce upward and a breach of the current high... but that's just me
so two trades then. one to pick the start of the bounce and one and confirmation... gotcha
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #352,665
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:47am Nov 11, 2013 9:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Now we wait to see which side will break out first. In the meantime, just trade the triangle {image}
Nice amount of pips possibility
I prefer breakout to downside, cause this pattern could be a bearish flag too...
And hopefully trade this daily double top, i woldnt like to close out at breakeven...
Anything is math!
  • #352,666
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:59am Nov 11, 2013 9:59am
To me in global stagnate economies which we are now Price tends to gravitate towards mean revision.No economy dominates anything.
With exception of Yen I believe most pairs are in relatively short range.
If we take 1.48 to 1.64 156 is roughly the mean.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #352,667
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:07am Nov 11, 2013 10:07am
USD is on the thin line to bounce upwards means that Cable could easily be bearish at anytime soon. BUT if suddenly USD has some outer guts from some outer space to challenge that kind of hard resistance, it could challenge that line and go further below. its not possible. means we could alternately see a hike in cable.

MAKE it or BREAK it time is = NOW.
what i see?
sell cable.
percentage to success is more to sell.

go with ur own analysis btw.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #352,668
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:11am Nov 11, 2013 10:11am
Quoting Davit
To me in global stagnate economies which we are now Price tends to gravitate towards mean revision.No economy dominates anything. With exception of Yen I believe most pairs are in relatively short range. If we take 1.48 to 1.64 156 is roughly the mean. {image}
Hey Davit

the numbers were random but yet meaningful.. my intention was top make sure people understand that dollar index is most likely to be 20% correct on any given day, 80% correct on long term average and 100% correct never, nto evemn for bug institutions like u pouinted out

also on ur gbp analysis it is important to note what has changed

gbp went to 1.48 from 1.62 purely on the speculation of carney and bank of england having a new mandate of using active monetary policy and massive speculation of carney cutting rate!! thsi happened in march 2013 where BoE expected growth was 0.6% and rate cut was expected..

now no rate cut is expected and no active monetary policy is price din hence cetris peribus sterling should be at 1.62 with 0.6% growth rate.. but guess what? growth rate is now 0.8% and i am pretty sure even that will be raised upwards....
  • #352,669
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:11am Nov 11, 2013 10:11am
good day to you.

Probably the shittiest trade I ever took.

Countered.

Stepped away with 0.35% profit.

All closed.

Terrible.

Regards
  • #352,670
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:12am Nov 11, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Dapsychopath
USD is on the thin line to bounce upwards means that Cable could easily be bearish at anytime soon. BUT if suddenly USD has some outer guts from some outer space to challenge that kind of hard resistance, it could challenge that line and go further below. its not possible. means we could alternately see a hike in cable. MAKE it or BREAK it time is = NOW. what i see? sell cable. percentage to success is more to sell. go with ur own analysis btw. {image}

there you go he is DOING THE SAME THING AGAIN!!!!!!
  • #352,671
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:16am Nov 11, 2013 10:16am
Quoting TauTrader
good day to you. Probably the shittiest trade I ever took. Countered. Stepped away with 0.35% profit. All closed. Terrible. Regards
Ney Lanie, dis ok
  • #352,672
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:24am Nov 11, 2013 10:24am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Ney Lanie, dis ok
sir J.

Hierdie een was 'n fokop of note..

Ek is besig met 'n system bou vir scalps - toe ek klaar gebou het - toe sien ek die fokop..

ek counter toe dubbel - oombliklik. Sluit so gou as ek in positive is.

Sal jou e-pos binnekort. Travel baie - more in Paarl en Worcester.

Ons moet braai!

Groetnis
  • #352,673
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:25am Nov 11, 2013 10:25am
Quoting TauTrader
good day to you. Probably the shittiest trade I ever took. Countered. Stepped away with 0.35% profit. All closed. Terrible. Regards
It's all about timing. You can be right on your thesis, but it takes time. I was bullish on cable when it was in the 1.55/56 zone around Feb - it had dropped precipitously from 1.6 and ultimately (although I didn't know it) was headed to near 1.48. I couldn't understand it. I'd at the time seen early indicators from a good source saying that the UK economy was strengthening, and fast, under the hood. In the end I gave up with massive losses at around 1.52 (can't remember) and took some time off from trading. Here we are now, at 1.6 having been as high as 1.62. It sucks that you can be so right in time, but wrong, at the time that matters - when your bets are on. Being right on the thesis is no good. You've got to have so much patience, and discipline.
There are so many lessons to learn in trading; that was just another one for me: don't get heavy against non-confirming technicals, no matter your reading of the fundamentals. You want to think you're clever and better informed than many and you probably are on both counts. At some point the technicals should start to confirm, but that can take weeks or months. We can see what the market did even though I believe the major players knew pretty well as much as me that the fundamental picture had changed.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,674
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:27am Nov 11, 2013 10:27am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} sir J. Hierdie een was 'n fokop of note.. Ek is besig met 'n system bou vir scalps - toe ek klaar gebou het - toe sien ek die fokop.. ek counter toe dubbel - oombliklik. Sluit so gou as ek in positive is. Sal jou e-pos binnekort. Travel baie - more in Paarl en Worcester. Ons moet braai! Groetnis
Jy ken!
  • #352,675
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:36am Nov 11, 2013 10:36am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} It's all about timing. You can be right on your thesis, but it takes time. I was bullish on cable when it was in the 1.55/56 zone around Feb - it had dropped precipitously from 1.6 and ultimately (although I didn't know it) was headed to near 1.48. I couldn't understand it. I'd at the time seen early indicators from a good source saying that the UK economy was strengthening, and fast, under the hood. In the end I gave up with massive losses at around 1.52 (can't remember) and took some time off from trading. Here we are now, at 1.6 having...
Sir, BW

Agreed - finding timing. Finding timing. FINDING TIMING.

I posted a chart when we were at 54 - wishing for 59 in my lifetime. Some posters told me to f"ck off and die.. that I enjoyed.

The longer term trades ( 5 - 14 days) I have down. No problem.Well - to be honest - better timed.

But I do think I need a scalping system. Keeps me sane and busy. I'm close..

You sound like you have your head screwed on right. Floating above.

So please do carry on posting your thoughts. I enjoyed your post. A lot.

Back to the drawing boards for me..

Regards
  • #352,676
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:38am Nov 11, 2013 10:38am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Jy ken!
Djou ma!

Ek ken net van braai. Gaat jou e-pos more aand, my broe!

Dan chat ons..

Sharp my broe!
  • #352,677
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:52am Nov 11, 2013 10:52am
good day,

Scalp system - 3hr chart.

Waiting for the drop to finish. As soon as it changes direction, heavy long. But only for a few. Let it finish. POW for profit.

Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh3.png Size: 80 KB
  • #352,678
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:15am Nov 11, 2013 11:15am
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir, BW Agreed - finding timing. Finding timing. FINDING TIMING. I posted a chart when we were at 54 - wishing for 59 in my lifetime. Some posters told me to f"ck off and die.. that I enjoyed. The longer term trades ( 5 - 14 days) I have down. No problem.Well - to be honest - better timed. But I do think I need a scalping system. Keeps me sane and busy. I'm close.. You sound like you have your head screwed on right. Floating above. So please do carry on posting your thoughts. I enjoyed your post. A lot. Back to the drawing boards for me.....
Cheers mate, best of luck to you.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,679
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:12pm Nov 11, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} It's all about timing. You can be right on your thesis, but it takes time. I was bullish on cable when it was in the 1.55/56 zone around Feb - it had dropped precipitously from 1.6 and ultimately (although I didn't know it) was headed to near 1.48. I couldn't understand it. I'd at the time seen early indicators from a good source saying that the UK economy was strengthening, and fast, under the hood. In the end I gave up with massive losses at around 1.52 (can't remember) and took some time off from trading. Here we are now, at 1.6 having...
Its goes with the old saying that most retail traders are correct just at the wrong time.
  • #352,680
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:16pm Nov 11, 2013 12:16pm
Good day,

Have to sit out till later. Enough for 4 double cheese burgers at MacDonalds plus a cornetto chocolate McFlurry for each.



Then a 2k run

See Wednesday. On the road.

Regards
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