Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Quoting shellsnail

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{quote} actually I can show that all technical patterns, indicators are derivatives of EW (which itself is a derivative of price and time). when I first learnt it 3 years ago, I sucked at it, was just slapping numbers and alphabets onto curves - abandoned it but over the years after trying everything realised that it is still the best tool when used for finetuning ENTRIES and BIG PICTURE only (not to guess where price might go in the next 1 hour)

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Quoting nAVIN2007

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{quote} what is your success rate?

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Quoting shellsnail

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{quote} GBP is, if I am right, in impulsive 3rd wave down. USD on the other hand is likely starting corrective c-wave down. So GBP/USD is gonna fall, and when USD's correction is done and start impulsive up move, GBP might start correcting but again USD strength > GBP strength. One day we might get both of them in an impulse and boom u get 200 pip day.

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Quoting akki300986

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{quote} hey budd u must be kidding me when u say this move down is sterling losing strength??? look at dollar across the board.. 1) usd/jpy up 200.. no jpy weaking , dollar strength 2) aud/usd nzd/usd down 200.. despite good data in aus and kiwi.. pure dollar strength eur/usd down 400-- poor inflation and rate cut.. hence bringing sterling down with it.. massive dollar buying agaisnt euro brings gbp/uisd down too if u want to take out the dollar effect then look at gbp/nzd. gbp/aud, gbp/chf u will realize sterling hasnt weakened at all

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} You're absolutely correct. Cable has held up extremely well against all other crosses, but does that tell you that it is bullish? To me it is probably more bearish than the others are it is developing a topping pattern. It is overbought and is showing string bearish divergence on the Daily GBPLFX index. Therefore, on the premise that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves on the assumption of better news to come, the risk is heavily to the downside. If the data to be released this and next week (CPI, employment and GDP) proves the market...

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} I agree it's going to be extremely difficult to start a taper without causing a surge in the benchmark (10Y) yield. The thing is that the longer they keep printing, the harder it will become. It's like a crack addict (the market). The more addicted, the harder it will be to quit and the higher the chances of heart failure leading to sudden death. When/if the supplier (The Fed) starts "tapering" the supply of crack, it has to be a consistent reduction. Cannot just cut down the supply to 4 hits a day from 5 and stay at that level, otherwise...

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Quoting lumesh

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{quote} well, you would be betting against fundamentals then. But G/U is notorious for achieveing its direction out of thin air. 1.55 is rational if the massive double top endorses panic but other that we need more data. RIght now UK's data surprise index favours downside so a break below 1.59 is possible. As always, time and future data will tell. Mixed signals for pound, atm

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Quoting britc17

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{quote} This is Forex, it could go anywhere. =) I actually think fundamentally there is reason for it to head south as well. Mainly due to what I see as dollar strength in the midterm. I find US data affects this pair more strongly than UK. UK seems to be pretty flat. 1.5911 is the level for me. A break below there and it could be pay day. 1.6250 is the topside level for me. A break above that - I will have to reevaluate this pair long term. I don't really care what it does in the short term.

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} You're absolutely correct. Cable has held up extremely well against all other crosses, but does that tell you that it is bullish? To me it is probably more bearish than the others are it is developing a topping pattern. It is overbought and is showing string bearish divergence on the Daily GBPLFX index. Therefore, on the premise that the markets have gotten ahead of themselves on the assumption of better news to come, the risk is heavily to the downside. If the data to be released this and next week (CPI, employment and GDP) proves the market...

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Quoting lumesh

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{quote} I see your point and your arguments are very logical in an addict perspective. Unfortunately, and that is my opinion, the FED does not (yet) see it that way. FED takes the tapering with extreme caution. First, they test the markets with a test taper. They can even give the markets an offseting arguments such as lowering the target UE rate in their forward guidance. You know: giving something while taking smth away. Pure, month over month tapering can be (i don't know today) devastating to EM's which can cause a whole lot of new problems...

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} The Fed doesn't give a flying arse about the BRIC nations and how prepared they may or may not be for a Fed taper. The Fed has been talking taper for quite a while now so surely EMs are fully aware that it's coming. In the end Bernanke or Yellen will pull the plug on QE when it suits the bangsters and to a lesser degree, the US economy. That time is coming soon. The test was already made through verbiage between May and September. Next wave will be the real thing {image}

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Quoting akki300986

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{quote} Dolal rindex is made up as follows.. everything constant.. so if nothing else moves except aud/usd rising 20,0000000 pips.. dollar index will be flat!!!! Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight Swedish...

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Quoting shellsnail

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{quote} Along these lines, I have an interesting theory that all the banks are forecasting taper in march only so that they can buy USD before everyone else. Remember Bernanke said during the September meeting that people should LISTEN CAREFULLY to what the Fed says during the meetings. He said taper based on economic data and likely by year end. People just predicted it was September. Now that we are nearing the year end, I think Fed is going to stand true to their message and go ahead with taper either this month or next.

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} That's why I don't pay much attention to DXY when analysing the Aussie and the Kiwi... or even the British Pound to a lesser degree. Instead I use the Dow Jones FXCM USDOLLAR Index which is equally weighted across ALL majors including the Oz and Kiwi. USDOLLAR Daily {image}

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} The Fed doesn't give a flying arse about the BRIC nations and how prepared they may or may not be for a Fed taper. The Fed has been talking taper for quite a while now so surely EMs are fully aware that it's coming. In the end Bernanke or Yellen will pull the plug on QE when it suits the bangsters and to a lesser degree, the US economy. That time is coming soon. The test was already made through verbiage between May and September. Next wave will be the real thing {image}

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Quoting akki300986

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{quote} hey budd u seem like the smarter of these lots here but the point i am making is that equally weighted or constant weighted is INCORRECT! 1) people are buying USD like crazy against Mexican peso, indian rupee, brazilian real, etc etc.. all this stuff is not picked up in any of the index.. fxcm or dxy 2) and even against the major the ccy mic keeps changing. hence maths says that while keeping an equal weigtage, dollar index will give u right number when considered over a long range as an average and not exactly on any particular piont let...

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Quoting lumesh

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{quote} if u say so

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} No argument there. You make a great point and I am in full agreement. The Dollar Index is not meant to guide you in intraday trades, but is more of a general guide to what the Dollar is doing in the mid term and not what the individual basket components are doing. To see what the AUD is doing in the mid term, then you need an AUD index.

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} That's why I don't pay much attention to DXY when analysing the Aussie and the Kiwi... or even the British Pound to a lesser degree. Instead I use the Dow Jones FXCM USDOLLAR Index which is equally weighted across ALL majors including the Oz. USDOLLAR Daily {image} As of January 1, 2011, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index was a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value equally weighted against four of the world’s most liquidly traded currencies: Euro (EUR), 25% weight [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling]British...

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