Fundamentally:
There was a lot of risk events in the past months, but all had finished with happy end:
- Syria, Italy, German Election, Taper/no Taper, USA shut down, USA debt ceiling etc
EU economy has a lot of progress (PMIs, GDP, PIIGS CDS price)
USA economy has a lot of progress too.
We have now two big risk events:
- Thursday ECB meeting. The market priced a rate cut because of CPI
- Friday NFP and Thursday USA GDP.
With a good numbers from USA and no rate cut in ECB we could see a rally again to 1,2375 and may be more.
Technically:
There is a lot of decreasing trendline and lower highs on all time frame: D1, H4, h1, M15 etc. But the downside is limited. 1,2280-1,2300 is very strong supoort yet, and every new minimum is only 1-2-3 pips lower. It suggest that a lot of buying interest are here, but the rally is waiting for something.
We will see what will hapenning in the next days: slow moving to 1,2250 or test 1,2375 and 1,24 1,2430.
I hope the second version will win
Update: daily ATR at half year minimum. It suggest again a big movement (100-200 pip)
There was a lot of risk events in the past months, but all had finished with happy end:
- Syria, Italy, German Election, Taper/no Taper, USA shut down, USA debt ceiling etc
EU economy has a lot of progress (PMIs, GDP, PIIGS CDS price)
USA economy has a lot of progress too.
We have now two big risk events:
- Thursday ECB meeting. The market priced a rate cut because of CPI
- Friday NFP and Thursday USA GDP.
With a good numbers from USA and no rate cut in ECB we could see a rally again to 1,2375 and may be more.
Technically:
There is a lot of decreasing trendline and lower highs on all time frame: D1, H4, h1, M15 etc. But the downside is limited. 1,2280-1,2300 is very strong supoort yet, and every new minimum is only 1-2-3 pips lower. It suggest that a lot of buying interest are here, but the rally is waiting for something.
We will see what will hapenning in the next days: slow moving to 1,2250 or test 1,2375 and 1,24 1,2430.
I hope the second version will win
Update: daily ATR at half year minimum. It suggest again a big movement (100-200 pip)