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EUR/CHF

  • #11,341
  • Nov 5, 2013 11:44am Nov 5, 2013 11:44am
Fundamentally:

There was a lot of risk events in the past months, but all had finished with happy end:

- Syria, Italy, German Election, Taper/no Taper, USA shut down, USA debt ceiling etc

EU economy has a lot of progress (PMIs, GDP, PIIGS CDS price)
USA economy has a lot of progress too.

We have now two big risk events:

- Thursday ECB meeting. The market priced a rate cut because of CPI
- Friday NFP and Thursday USA GDP.

With a good numbers from USA and no rate cut in ECB we could see a rally again to 1,2375 and may be more.

Technically:

There is a lot of decreasing trendline and lower highs on all time frame: D1, H4, h1, M15 etc. But the downside is limited. 1,2280-1,2300 is very strong supoort yet, and every new minimum is only 1-2-3 pips lower. It suggest that a lot of buying interest are here, but the rally is waiting for something.

We will see what will hapenning in the next days: slow moving to 1,2250 or test 1,2375 and 1,24 1,2430.

I hope the second version will win

Update: daily ATR at half year minimum. It suggest again a big movement (100-200 pip)
  • #11,342
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:00pm Nov 5, 2013 12:00pm
Quoting Simon73
Fundamentally: There was a lot of risk events in the past months, but all had finished with
Hi Simon very well said let me add current bad CPI figures from CH with Jordans past commitment to follow
a theoretical ECB cut (supported by todays CPI figures). To me then its only the Friday USA data from the
fundamental side (that I think it should mostly drag UCHF but it doesn't). So Im still
  • #11,343
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:23pm Nov 5, 2013 12:23pm
One more interesting thing: The long/short ratio was above 90% after the SNB peg. Now it is 75%. So much more short positions now than in the past two years.

It is ideal to go up ...
  • #11,344
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:25pm Nov 5, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting Simon73
One more interesting thing: The long/short ratio was above 90% after the SNB peg. Now it is 75%. So much more short positions now than in the past two years. It is ideal to go up ...
Where do you see, Oanda or options market?
  • #11,345
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:28pm Nov 5, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Where do you see, Oanda or options market?
Just Oanda
  • #11,346
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:35am Nov 6, 2013 1:35am
Very good & objective analysis Simon.

I wish just to add a couple of points:
- For future growth, etc, we need China, some analysts emphasis that figures released by this country are better then reality and that you can not hide a situation for ever!
- Worse for me; the present situation of all indices are at, or close to record high. They all seem to be toppish, where recent rallies are not supported by fundamentals, but money printing.

So these 2 factors could weight on the risk on / risk off. Then, if traders/investors leave the commdoll, the indices and seek refuge, where do they put their money... CHF.

So, even, if I agree with you; there is light at the end of the tunnel, where are still a couple of dark clothes above our heads.

I am very long... but with sell limits starting at 1.234
  • #11,347
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:47am Nov 7, 2013 3:47am
looks like we dont wait for ECB decision. Slowly going higher. A lot of short position's stops not activated yet. I wonder what is the level, where shorts closing their positions. There will be a big jump, if we could activate these stops.

target is 1,2350 first
  • #11,348
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:57am Nov 7, 2013 6:57am
wow...nice inverted HS on H4 starting to form
  • #11,349
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:17am Nov 7, 2013 7:17am
Quoting pipxster
wow...nice inverted HS on H4 starting to form

What do you think after the rate cut pip?

If draghi mentions negative rates it could visit 1.20 again.
  • #11,350
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:27am Nov 7, 2013 7:27am
"What do you think after the rate cut pip?

If draghi mentions negative rates it could visit 1.20 again."

Hi Brinks, lets see the presscon, dont think Buba team let him go neg expect to be a relatively more hawkish tone
also a question if SNB will just sit and do nothing as Jordan -as far as I remember - hinted couple of months ago to follow
ECB (anyone here remembers? when he was mentioning negative rates not excluded blabla...) especially with these CPI figures

Draghi for (SNB) Preisdent!

edit: forgot to mention that I was waiting for US data to push my UY longs (have seen your recent activity on that forum too)
  • #11,351
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:40am Nov 7, 2013 7:40am
Quoting pipxster
"What do you think after the rate cut pip? If draghi mentions negative rates it could visit 1.20 again." Hi Brinks, lets see the presscon, dont think Buba team let him go neg expect to be a relatively more hawkish tone also a question if SNB will just sit and do nothing as Jordan -as far as I remember - hinted couple of months ago to follow ECB (anyone here remembers? when he was mentioning negative rates not excluded blabla...) especially with these CPI figures Draghi for (SNB) Preisdent! edit: forgot to mention that I was waiting for US data...

Thanks pip

yes i remember TJ saying they would act if the ECB went negative rates or words to that effect.

I'm also long UY and wasnt expecting the big push we just got.
Its breaking the triangle to the upside deppending what you look at it could be a weekly triangle or a monthly flag pattern
  • #11,352
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:45am Nov 7, 2013 7:45am
1.2000 will go.
  • #11,353
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:34am Nov 13, 2013 9:34am
Funny that EURCHF is not responding to the EUR rate cut & EZ deflation threat - rather stagnant above 1.23.
In case of a future zero or negative rate by ECB due to EZ deflation, I don't know how SNB will want to react.

Just waiting for a chance to reload at the daily 200-300EMA.
  • #11,354
  • Nov 14, 2013 9:11am Nov 14, 2013 9:11am
Quoting alaneth
Funny that EURCHF is not responding to the EUR rate cut & EZ deflation threat - rather stagnant above 1.23. In case of a future zero or negative rate by ECB due to EZ deflation, I don't know how SNB will want to react. Just waiting for a chance to reload at the daily 200-300EMA.
tought we go lower so to me its pretty "impressive" in EURCHF terms. and now we might break the 1,2335 barrier - whooaa 1,2365?
  • #11,355
  • Nov 14, 2013 11:52pm Nov 14, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting pipxster
{quote} tought we go lower so to me its pretty "impressive" in EURCHF terms. and now we might break the 1,2335 barrier - whooaa 1,2365?

Hi pip thought I would come and keep you company here as it seems your on your own

Yes eur/chf has been impressive since the rate cut when it didn't drop at all

my opinion is its not worth trading at these levels as it is moving in any direction
  • #11,356
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:29am Nov 15, 2013 2:29am
5.th attempt to break out the big trend line. If it could break anytime, opens the way for 1,25-1,26 or 1,2750

Now the trendline resistance is 1,2362
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchftrendline.png Size: 85 KB
  • #11,357
  • Nov 17, 2013 5:25pm Nov 17, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Simon73
5.th attempt to break out the big trend line. If it could break anytime, opens the way for 1,25-1,26 or 1,2750 Now the trendline resistance is 1,2362 {image}
its very bullish, on the monthly, i'd do a long if i had a big account, at very low leverage, long term
but there are some problems
- swiss balance of trade is positive, lol
- swiss unemployment is at 3%, lol
etc
so, why go up ?
lol

but i think the monthly will win, its horribly bullish.

yet, i smell SNB its going to ease bigtime, UsdChf will jump also

imo.

p.s. i leave, i got no patience for this pair

.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #11,358
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:09am Nov 18, 2013 2:09am
Quoting Willow
{quote} its very bullish, on the monthly, i'd do a long if i had a big account, at very low leverage, long term but there are some problems - swiss balance of trade is positive, lol - swiss unemployment is at 3%, lol etc so, why go up ? lol but i think the monthly will win, its horribly bullish. yet, i smell SNB its going to ease bigtime, UsdChf will jump also imo. p.s. i leave, i got no patience for this pair .

Hi Willow yes i was struggling with patience on this pair also.

I have a couple of very small long positions and dont even bother to look at them anymore.
  • #11,359
  • Nov 18, 2013 2:23am Nov 18, 2013 2:23am
Quoting Willow
{quote} its very bullish, on the monthly, i'd do a long if i had a big account, at very low leverage, long term but there are some problems - swiss balance of trade is positive, lol - swiss unemployment is at 3%, lol etc so, why go up ? lol but i think the monthly will win, its horribly bullish. yet, i smell SNB its going to ease bigtime, UsdChf will jump also imo. p.s. i leave, i got no patience for this pair .
If you want to find some reason to sell CHF and buy EUR/USD/GBP, here is one reason. Look the 10 year Goverment yields:

Japan: 0,63
Swiss: 0,97
Germany: 1,7
Canada: 2,5
USA: 2,7
UK: 2,73
Spain: 4,03
Italy: 4,08


With the last year improvment in EU and the in the ECB the most EU bond is getting more safer and the profit is higher than Swiss bond. It is a matter of time when bid player will change their portfolio.

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/
  • #11,360
  • Nov 18, 2013 11:30am Nov 18, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} If you want to find some reason to sell CHF and buy EUR/USD/GBP, here is one reason. Look the 10 year Goverment yields: Japan: 0,63 Swiss: 0,97 Germany: 1,7 Canada: 2,5 USA: 2,7 UK: 2,73 Spain: 4,03 Italy: 4,08 With the last year improvment in EU and the in the ECB the most EU bond is getting more safer and the profit is higher than Swiss bond. It is a matter of time when bid player will change their portfolio. http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/

thanks, i never look so deep, now its kinda clear
lets long UC, to start.
down today at under .9100 and bounce back at 9134
I'll shop after the drop
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