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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #350,401
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:08pm Oct 24, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting Niranj
Navin You are one of the experts here, what you think of chart i posted. I would like to short from current levels for very good reward to risk ratio. However everything looks so bullish about this pair that it may go above 1.6258 level with news release tomorrow. Not sure what will be the next level above if it goes past 1.63
1.6315 (trend line) & 1.6340 (previous high)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,402
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:09pm Oct 24, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1.6340
Thanks pip trapper.
  • #350,403
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:15pm Oct 24, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Check your calculator batteries 5,200,000/3,000,000,000,000 = 0.00001733333
Cable average volume per day is 472,000,000,000 USD

so its actually (5,200,000*1.6)/472,000,000,000
  • #350,404
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:16pm Oct 24, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Still doesn't say much regardless of retail trader positioning. What you have to look at is the large specs and the best way to get that data is to look at what the COT report from the CFTC says. Before the gov shutdown, large specs were quite net long the Euro and Cable. Since then both have rallied hard and it would stand to reason that they are now even more net long. Therefore, if the Euro and Cable get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles. Furthermore, take a look at how the retail crowd was positioned just before the rug was pulled...

  • #350,405
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:16pm Oct 24, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Still doesn't say much regardless of retail trader positioning. What you have to look at is the large specs and the best way to get that data is to look at what the COT report from the CFTC says. Before the gov shutdown, large specs were quite net long the Euro and Cable. Since then both have rallied hard and it would stand to reason that they are now even more net long. Therefore, if the Euro and Cable get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles. Furthermore, take a look at how the retail crowd was positioned just before the rug was pulled...

I wonder too how much of this is a struggle of nations. Everyone wants to increase their imports. They want to bring in more money, not less. A stronger dollar means less money for the USofA, because whatever is exported, wheat, oil, Ford trucks, becomes more expensive to those overseas who might be buying. Same is true for Europe and England if their money becomes stronger.

So, it's in the nations best interest to keep it's "dollar" weak. At least, in this limited view.

Which leads me to wonder how much control nations have over the forex markets.
  • #350,406
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:37pm Oct 24, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I wonder too how much of this is a struggle of nations. Everyone wants to increase their imports. They want to bring in more money, not less. A stronger dollar means less money for the USofA, because whatever is exported, wheat, oil, Ford trucks, becomes more expensive to those overseas who might be buying. Same is true for Europe and England if their money becomes stronger. So, it's in the nations best interest to keep it's \"dollar\" weak. At least, in this limited view. Which leads me to wonder how much control nations have over the forex...
The central banks supposedly do not use the exchange rates as a criteria for monetary policy decisions. Instead they use domestic consumer demand, money supply, interest rates and inflation. In the case of the Fed, it also uses the unemployment rate (and lately the worker participation rate)

The exchange rate is only used in other calculations in order to arrive at future growth projections. Obviously a stronger currency may lower future growth projections as opposed to a lower exchange rate. However, when the CB is dealing with a low inflation situation, the exchange rate is the least of their concerns until such time that it begins to show in their future projections that a higher exchange rate will have a serious negative impact.

Normally the CB works with a wide range in the exchange rate expectations and assumptions. Historical ECB action has shown that they are comfy with the Euro between 1.40 and 1.20. I'm not sure about the BOE because I haven't really been tracking them. The Fed however, doesn't seem to care about the exchange rate at all. That's probably mainly due to two reasons (among others).

1. It is so low that even a substantial increase will have very minimal impact on projections.
2. They are currently too focused on inflating the housing bubble so that consumers will be able to borrow on their increased home equity and spend the money on renovations, new cars, TVs and other consumer goods.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,407
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:43pm Oct 24, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Cable average volume per day is 472,000,000,000 USD so its actually (5,200,000*1.6)/472,000,000,000
Right you are, but the relative comparison was against the entire market... not just cable.
Even so, still less than 0.0001%
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,408
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:56pm Oct 24, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting Niranj
Navin You are one of the experts here, what you think of chart i posted. I would like to short from current levels for very good reward to risk ratio. However everything looks so bullish about this pair that it may go above 1.6258 level with news release tomorrow. Not sure what will be the next level above if it goes past 1.63

yur trendline i dont agree with..in truth it can go either way..its going to depend on GDP ..market is just trying to suck order both ways..im heavy short and biased at this point..

so i cannot give in partial advise
  • #350,409
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:06pm Oct 24, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} yur trendline i dont agree with..in truth it can go either way..its going to depend on GDP ..market is just trying to suck order both ways..im heavy short and biased at this point.. so i cannot give in partial advise
well i very much agree with you in regards to that market is just trying to suck orders both ways and that worries me big time. Other than that i m optimistic weather it goes or down it will still touch 1.63 tomorrow.
  • #350,410
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:07pm Oct 24, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Right you are, but the relative comparison was against the entire market... not just cable. Even so, still less than 0.0001%
oh yeah fair enough, retailers are insignificant unless we all pooled together to move something like the NZD on a late sunday evening.
  • #350,411
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:14pm Oct 24, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting Niranj
{quote} well i very much agree with you in regards to that market is just trying to suck orders both ways and that worries me big time. Other than that i m optimistic weather it goes or down it will still touch 1.63 tomorrow.

to be honest i think it may go up..just because im short also trend is friggin strong and news is semingly to be strong supporting up moments ..another thing is the information on news seems to be known b4 we actually see it..so even waiting for it maybe to late

its a tough one..
  • #350,412
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:15pm Oct 24, 2013 2:15pm
You know, if I wasn't such a small fish in a big pond, I'd think they targetted my stops.

Regardless, I was stopped at at b/e. My bias is still short, so now I need to find me another short entry.
  • #350,413
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:15pm Oct 24, 2013 2:15pm
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  • #350,414
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:17pm Oct 24, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} oh yeah fair enough, retailers are insignificant unless we all pooled together to move something like the NZD on a late sunday evening.
We should try that.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,415
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:20pm Oct 24, 2013 2:20pm
Thanks for the lecture !

The point I was making and have made a lot of times here is that the retail crowd is generally a contrary indicator ....Re the move up from 4811 July lo in this pairing and I was having as much fun with the bears in that too - whilst making the serious point about the increasing bullish tone of the instrument and the risk of trading against it at that time. Re COT - I am a short term trader - 75% of my trading set-ups / market entries come on 5min t/f or less and all on 1hr or less so regardless of the COT -vs- o/b or o/s technical (which is a good point) there are mostly always hi-prob trading opps on the lower t/f's either way...even buying in the situation you describe ..eg's attached today. Re high risk buying in the current situation- tell that to the market if Uk Q3 Gdp prelim comes out at 1.0% tomorrow !

G/L

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Still doesn't say much regardless of retail trader positioning. What you have to look at is the large specs and the best way to get that data is to look at what the COT report from the CFTC says. Before the gov shutdown, large specs were quite net long the Euro and Cable. Since then both have rallied hard and it would stand to reason that they are now even more net long. Therefore, if the Euro and Cable get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles. Furthermore, take a look at how the retail crowd was positioned just before the rug was pulled...
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ex member
  • #350,416
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:24pm Oct 24, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting bbmac
Thanks for the lecture ! The point I was making and have made a lot of times here is that the retail crowd is generally a contrary indicator ....Re the move up from 4811 July lo in this pairing and I was having as much fun with the bears in that too - whilst making the serious point about the increasing bullish tone of the instrument and the risk of trading against it at that time. Re COT - I am a short term trader - 75% of my trading set-ups / market entries come on 5min t/f or less and all on 1hr or less so regardless of the COT -vs- o/b or o/s...
You're welcome for the lecture... Thanks for the clarification
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,417
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:51pm Oct 24, 2013 2:51pm
Quoting suthmo
Can expect a wtf move up to 6350 This is just my opinion I'll explain later.

Is it later yet?
  • #350,418
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:01pm Oct 24, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Is it later yet?
What time is it? 22:57 The WTF move level is currently between 6340 and 6400 until 12 to 2am then the levels change. I'm sure Asia can bring the WTF sauce to the party.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #350,419
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:14pm Oct 24, 2013 3:14pm
Pending buy order just above yesterdays daily candle open. Stop just under the low of the candle. Target around 6290.

Ya feelin' it?
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  • #350,420
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:32pm Oct 24, 2013 3:32pm
This isn't the first time my daily forecast has been has been mangled by news or in the previous case NFP, moved 30 pips above and below projection and then jumped right back to complete the rest of the forecast, on time. This is why I moved my stops south of the 1.6170 buy / 6150 sl down to 6130 to give the news some room. Increased account risk to 15% and held out for the move back to the upside. Because if it comes back the reward is 115% increase. Now my stops are at BE so risk is zero. I've got the top of this whole up trend ending at 9am tomorrow so if we're not up in the 6400 range by then it's all over. Or is it? Maybe it's now shifted forward through time. I have doubts now, we haven't come back to forecast path by now then maybe the whole deal is off. But then maybe NY couldn't move the market all that way and left some for Asia? It's a lot of IDKs and still no WTF
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