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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #350,381
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:24pm Oct 24, 2013 12:24pm
Howzit GU!

I'm not a bull or a bear.... I'm a trader (position / Medium Term)

  1. Nothing today or tomorrow will frighten me our of my trade (stops wide but 2%)
  2. Dollar is at a turning point
  3. GU Divergence remains intact
  4. High prob still intact for bear...

My time frames Month, Week , Day...

I will clarify charts tomorrow

Intraday bull and bear have opportunities



G/L

  • #350,382
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:28pm Oct 24, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting bbmac
Good news for the bulls lol ! G/L {image}

I'm just going to guess here, but those percentages represent what, .0001% of all the money being traded in Forex?
  • #350,383
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:29pm Oct 24, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting JimmyC
Dollar is at a turning point
GU Divergence remains intact
High prob still intact for bear...
My time frames Month, Week , Day
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,384
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:29pm Oct 24, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I'm just going to guess here, but those percentages represent what, .0001% of all the money being traded in Forex?
Actually it's much less than that.
52 100K contracts short? Hell one trader at a small bank does double that on one position.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,385
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:31pm Oct 24, 2013 12:31pm
My views, for the record: tomorrow a big day for cable. I'm short at 1.6251 with SL at BE and will decide what to do with it tomorrow before the GDP release depending on how the Asia trading goes. Market sentiment is very bullish, rallies happen very quick every time a support level is touched. GDP will probably decide the mid-term (1 week or so) direction, but the market really wants this thing to go up!
  • #350,386
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:31pm Oct 24, 2013 12:31pm
I am more optimistic that pair will breach 1.6258 tomorrow and head towards 1.6340.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #350,387
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:32pm Oct 24, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting JimmyC
Howzit GU! I'm not a bull or a bear.... I'm a trader (position / Medium Term) Nothing today or tomorrow will frighten me our of my trade (stops wide but 2%) Dollar is at a turning point GU Divergence remains intact High prob still intact for bear...My time frames Month, Week , Day... I will clarify charts tomorrow Intraday bull and bear have opportunities G/L
I think the market it completely now neutral..potential bull flag and at the same time as u have mentioned diverence dollar potential turning point..it quite fitting today is an inside bar, shows indecision both ways..its all about GDP..

whoever stay in the market show no fear and therefore the reward will be justified..it always amazes how the market get us captive

Anyway enough of the braveheart speech
LETS get LUCKY!!
  • #350,388
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:33pm Oct 24, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting negrada
My views, for the record: tomorrow a big day for cable. I'm short at 1.6251 with SL at BE and will decide what to do with it tomorrow before the GDP release depending on how the Asia trading goes. Market sentiment is very bullish, rallies happen very quick every time a support level is touched. GDP will probably decide the mid-term (1 week or so) direction, but the market really wants this thing to go up!

WE WILL HARDLY MOVE
  • #350,389
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:36pm Oct 24, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Actually it's much less than that. 52 100K contracts short? Hell one trader at a small bank does double that on one position.

I am surprised with the numbers. If the FX market is 3 trillion USD per day, 52 100k contracts is equal to 5,200,000/3,000,000,000,000*1.6 = 0.0003% of the whole market. I would have thought it was less but look at that, the small fish aren't that small after all...
  • #350,390
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:36pm Oct 24, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} WE WILL HARDLY MOVE

looks like you are very bored...
  • #350,391
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:37pm Oct 24, 2013 12:37pm
very probably, ...the volume isn't the point, but as a representative sample of the 'retail' market it pretty much reflects what is on other sites, brokers included...ie that retailers are net short this instrument...oanda right now is below for eg.

G/L

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Actually it's much less than that. 52 100K contracts short? Hell one trader at a small bank does double that on one position.
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ex member
  • #350,392
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:41pm Oct 24, 2013 12:41pm
Gentleman & Ladies

Your trading skill is an edge 5% (if you are good) your attitude is the remainder... (95%)

There is no greater gift than accepting these words

Inserted Video


G/L
  • #350,393
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:42pm Oct 24, 2013 12:42pm
Fxstreet.com's tech summary is 'strongly bullish on daily t/f, slightly bullish on weekly but o/b, and below that it's pretty mixed. (For what it's worth / out of interest)

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical-st...encies/gbpusd/

G/L
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ex member
  • #350,394
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:42pm Oct 24, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting negrada
{quote} looks like you are very bored...

I tell u..completely
  • #350,395
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:43pm Oct 24, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting negrada
My views, for the record: tomorrow a big day for cable. I'm short at 1.6251 with SL at BE and will decide what to do with it tomorrow before the GDP release depending on how the Asia trading goes. Market sentiment is very bullish, rallies happen very quick every time a support level is touched. GDP will probably decide the mid-term (1 week or so) direction, but the market really wants this thing to go up!
Actually the FI market wants the USD to go down. That's what it's all about... USD weakness. The only question in bond traders minds is where to put it. Euro? Cable? Yeah sure, we'll put some there, but the majority will go to emerging market currencies coz that's where the yield is.

However, there's a slight problem... With all the extended moves over the last few weeks, all these instruments are technically stretched so far, that only a few are willing to keep bidding upwards. Therefore, at a very minimum, we should see a decent correction of about 2%, but most likely 5%.

So, when will that happen? I'm no psychic and even if I was, I wouldn't tell you. My general sense of the markets right now is that they want to get as much yield as possible. Unlike us mere retail traders, the pros with the big money are very patient and will wait for the right time to pull the trigger. None of them really want to go against the 85 billion per month that the Fed is printing, but they're not comfy bidding risk from technically overbought levels. Therefore some time will pass and some bad news from the UK or the EZ will hit the wires and that will give them a perfect excuse to dump Pounds and Euros. It's just a matter of time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,396
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:46pm Oct 24, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting JimmyC
Gentleman & Ladies Your trading skill is an edge 5% (if you are good) your attitude is the remainder... (95%) There is no greater gift than accepting these words http://youtu.be/a6lCjOIqZqQ G/L
The one thing you have ABSOLUTE control of is your ATTITUDE

Good Night

G/L
  • #350,397
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:48pm Oct 24, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} The one thing you have ABSOLUTE control of is your ATTITUDE Good Night G/L

n8 buddy..
  • #350,398
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:50pm Oct 24, 2013 12:50pm
Navin You are one of the experts here, what you think of chart i posted. I would like to short from current levels for very good reward to risk ratio. However everything looks so bullish about this pair that it may go above 1.6258 level with news release tomorrow. Not sure what will be the next level above if it goes past 1.63
  • #350,399
  • Oct 24, 2013 12:55pm Oct 24, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting negrada
{quote} I am surprised with the numbers. If the FX market is 3 trillion USD per day, 52 100k contracts is equal to 5,200,000/3,000,000,000,000*1.6 = 0.0003% of the whole market. I would have thought it was less but look at that, the small fish aren't that small after all...
Check your calculator batteries
5,200,000/3,000,000,000,000 = 0.00001733333
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,400
  • Oct 24, 2013 1:05pm Oct 24, 2013 1:05pm
Quoting bbmac
very probably, ...the volume isn't the point, but as a representative sample of the 'retail' market it pretty much reflects what is on other sites, brokers included...ie that retailers are net short this instrument...oanda right now is below for eg. G/L {quote} {image}
Still doesn't say much regardless of retail trader positioning.

What you have to look at is the large specs and the best way to get that data is to look at what the COT report from the CFTC says.
Before the gov shutdown, large specs were quite net long the Euro and Cable. Since then both have rallied hard and it would stand to reason that they are now even more net long. Therefore, if the Euro and Cable get squeezed, the house of cards tumbles.

Furthermore, take a look at how the retail crowd was positioned just before the rug was pulled out from under the Euro and Cable in Feb. Yep, that's right... The retail crowd was heavily net short. Here's some friendly advice... Although it is a good idea to keep an eye on what the retail crowd is doing in order to gauge which direction is most likely, you also have to consider whether such a direction is supported by the techs and the COT report. Right now the COT is net long and the techs are overbought. If you still want to be buying, that's fine. It may go up further from here, but for me and anyone else who looks at all the odds, it's high risk.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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