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Sultans of Swing

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 7, 2014 2:06am Sep 26, 2013 11:12am | Edited Mar 7, 2014 2:06am
This thread is dedicated to Swing / Position Trading of all Financial Instruments

The emphasis being on market analysis and idea generation

Generally, I consider swing trading to consist of a Daily Chart, but H4 is ok for a more granular view and timing related discussions (shorter time frames are also ok, but, please use them very sparingly)

Posting charts with markups is strongly encouraged!
(due to the nature of this thread, it is also encouraged that you post a link to previous post when referencing a trade idea/analysis posted in the past)

It does not matter what school of analysis you prefer, all ideas are welcome (especially if you came up with it yourself)

Discussions about Global Macro Strategies and Economics/Geopolitical developments are also encouraged
(as long as we remain civil and keep it in opportunistic context)

Rooks and Pros are equally welcome, and hopefully, we can all make some money in these markets!

Cheers and good luck!

Inserted Video


(additional content coming soon... maybe)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #2
  • Sep 28, 2013 5:23pm Sep 28, 2013 5:23pm
you play cricket?
  • #3
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:19am Sep 30, 2013 8:19am
Quoting nasir.khan
you play cricket?

I tried it... and I sucked!

better to focus on stuff a person is good at I think!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #4
  • Edited 8:37am Sep 30, 2013 8:25am | Edited 8:37am
Swing Idea:

The theme is USD Weakness, which I expect will start dominating the newswires as the debt ceiling and government shutdown nonsense sorts itself out.

It has been my view for a long time that Fed cannot afford US10T's at the level that they currently are at (~2.6)... and will do everything they can to bring the yield down to the ~1.5 level... and the non-taper is an indication of this effort

It is interesting to note that since the initial announcement of the taper back in may, JGB's (10's) have been "managed" down from ~0.98 to ~0.68 (a ~30% reduction over just a quarter and a half!!!)... the interplay b/w the USD and JPY will be interesting to watch, but, there are some obvious trades that come to mind as a result of this observation... I will post them as they become more workable!

It is my view that this broad theme will dominate most of the FX markets for the next few months (not so for gold)... and most risk assets are about to go into bull mode...

Good luck!

Loonie Short Idea

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Loonie Daily Swing 09.30.13.png Size: 54 KB


(edit: chart re-posted because there was a typo on the cycle dates, it is fixed now)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #5
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:39am Sep 30, 2013 8:39am
EJ Swing Idea:

I am not on this trade yet, waiting for a confirmation before I take the play

Still, a nice R/R if the news out of the EU starts sounding a little better and we get a floor under the EURO...

note: there are no timing studies on this chart, so time/price are not to scale here

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Daily Swing 09.30.13.png Size: 41 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #6
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:24am Sep 30, 2013 10:24am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I tried it... and I sucked! better to focus on stuff a person is good at I think!
Haha, was just curios about the title of the thread.
.
  • #7
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:27am Sep 30, 2013 10:27am
Quoting nasir.khan
{quote} Haha, was just curios about the title of the thread. .
I figured!
Its named after a dire straits track...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8
  • Sep 30, 2013 12:55pm Sep 30, 2013 12:55pm
Idea

GBP Strength
+
JPY Weakness
=
GJ Long

note: two entry levels are shown, the safer entry is obviously after a qualified break of the supply line, either way, R/R is attractive for both
from an EW view, we may be in the early days of an impulse wave 3... but wont know till after the fact...

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily Swing 09.30.13.png Size: 49 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #9
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:59pm Sep 30, 2013 2:59pm
I'm long GBP too. I have been buying it for several weeks now and probably will continue buying it until COT positioning reaches 80%+ long. It has just crossed 50% so has some way to go yet. Fundamentally it just keeps getting stronger and stronger, right now I can't envisage any of the other currencies I follow challenging it for strength.

On the short side JPY and USD look the weakest, although USD holds the possibility of a very big fall - making it more appealing if you don't use TP. JPY is also very oversold on the COT chart too, I don't think it has room to fall further until positioning pulls back a little from its current extreme. If risk is suddenly turned off and investors clamor back to one of those safe havens, I think they would prefer to flee to JPY rather than USD given the current political/economic uncertainty. Therefore USD is less likely to rally on risk aversion than JPY.

This means GBP is the strongest fundamentally, USD the weakest, so I am long GBP/USD.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #10
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:06pm Sep 30, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting numbnuts
I'm long GBP too. I have been buying it for several weeks now and probably will continue buying it until COT positioning reaches 80%+ long. It has just crossed 50% so has some way to go yet. Fundamentally it just keeps getting stronger and stronger, right now I can't envisage any of the other currencies I follow challenging it for strength. On the short side JPY and USD look the weakest, although USD holds the possibility of a very big fall - making it more appealing if you don't use TP. JPY is also very oversold on the COT chart too, I don't think...
I am also long cable on strong fundamentals and juicy technicals... Been so for a few hundred pips... Looking for ~64-65 as target practice before a meaningful retrace
I posted this weekly chart w rationale on the cable thread a couple of weeks back, but i think a lot of folks on ff fancy themselves to be "scalpers" and pretty much no one agreed w my analysis... Everyone wanted to short it!
Ill put that chart up here as well since its still valid, and cable is through the 78.6 retrace level at this point, the picture becomes more clear

Cable
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable Weekly 09.19.13.png Size: 73 KB

note: this idea is a couple of weeks old, but still valid
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #11
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:44pm Sep 30, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting theDHT
Swing Idea: The theme is USD Weakness, which I expect will start dominating the newswires as the debt ceiling and government shutdown nonsense sorts itself out. It has been my view for a long time that Fed cannot afford US10T's at the level that they currently are at (~2.6)... and will do everything they can to bring the yield down to the ~1.5 level... and the non-taper is an indication of this effort It is interesting to note that since the initial announcement of the taper back in may, JGB's (10's) have been "managed" down from ~0.98 to ~0.68...
Regarding your Loonie short idea, I'm not sure if you saw what I posted in The Club today, but here it is... My macro view on the Loonie.


Note that the Canadian economy is directly dependent on a strong US economy, so typically what's good for the US is also good for Canada. In the same respect, what's bad for the US... just fill in the blanks.

The USD/CAD is mostly affected by QE right now and is the only reason it is this low.
The fair value for the USD/CAD is above 1.10. In fact I am eyeing 1.17/1.20 area over the next several months.

If you want a technical reason for it, just pull up a weekly chart and look at the inverted H/S with a breached neckline.
The neckline is at 1.0180 and has already been tested as support where price was aggressively rejected.
From here (technically speaking) the only way is more up.

In this case, I will provide a marked up weekly chart.

Your thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcadweekly.png Size: 99 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #12
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:19pm Sep 30, 2013 11:19pm
Good Luck with the thread, DHT.

Look forward to some great analysis and trade ideas here
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #13
  • Edited 12:36am Oct 1, 2013 12:23am | Edited 12:36am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Regarding your Loonie short idea, I'm not sure if you saw what I posted in The Club today, but here it is... My macro view on the Loonie. Note that the Canadian economy is directly dependent on a strong US economy, so typically what's good for the US is also good for Canada. In the same respect, what's bad for the US... just fill in the blanks. The USD/CAD is mostly affected by QE right now and is the only reason it is this low. The fair value for the USD/CAD is above 1.10. In fact I am eyeing 1.17/1.20 area over the next several months....
I think your point is a good one... looking at the long term weekly picture certainly does orient us in another way

But, I think you nailed it on the head when you said "USD/CAD is mostly affected by QE right now"... I think this is spot on,

The following is the same chart as you posted, but with a shorter look back, you will notice that it can achieve my price target (or close) while remaining in an overall bearish orientation (confluence of 161.8 ext on daily + 61.8 retrace on weekly)... at the moment, we have a lower high, and a test of the previous pivot low at ~1.0133, following which we are looking for ~parity

From a economic viewpoint, it is worth noting is that the Canadian economy is heavily dependent on commodity exports, which have been slow/slowing over the last few quarters as global GDP has been cooling off...

We are starting to get indications that the things are changing for the better:
- GDP numbers for Canada are improving (Local)
- Chinese iron ore order books are at 18 month highs, though, their trade settlement terms are still 12 months rather than 90 days (Global)
- Baltic Dry Index is at a multi-year high (Global);

A general buoyancy across the commodity spectrum is starting to take over... I think the Loonie will benefit from this development, at-least in the intermediate term, as will others who are susceptible to this dynamic (Brazil, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand etc, albeit at different rates)

The biggest driver across the board is, of-course, the US Fed, and we will have to watch very closely, for any shifts in stance regarding QE etc... but I think for as long as the punch bowl is in perpetual refill mode, we should all party!

Loonie
Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Loonie Weekly 10.01.13.png Size: 38 KB


Canadian GDP (as of 09.30.13)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD GDP 10.01.13.png Size: 3 KB

(source: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php)

Baltic Dry Index (as of 09.26.13)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BDIY 09.26.13.png Size: 52 KB

(source: Bloomberg)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #14
  • Edited 1:06am Oct 1, 2013 12:35am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting venzen
Good Luck with the thread, DHT. Look forward to some great analysis and trade ideas here
cheers dude! looking forward to your awesome EW analysis as well!

what do you think of my idea the GJ is perhaps looking to start a wave 3?

Im trying to apply some EW to these longer term charts... Easier said than done on these triangulated pairs!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #15
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:46am Oct 1, 2013 1:46am
Kiwi

An idea who's time has come

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Kiwi Daily Swing 10.01.13.png Size: 46 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #16
  • Edited 3:11am Oct 1, 2013 2:51am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} cheers dude! looking forward to your awesome EW analysis as well! what do you think of my idea the GJ is perhaps looking to start a wave 3? Im trying to apply some EW to these longer term charts... Easier said than done on these triangulated pairs!
DHT,

Not sure what signals you have for GJ. Also I am unsure what the fundamentals spell out (if they can be believed to act "as before" these days)... From a brief EW analysis of both I reckon the GJ is in for a pullback before completing its wave 5 (of 5) to around 163-164. Also, GU is nearing an upper TL so another pullback on the cards there with definite upside once the correction is done. I'd feel shame to discourage you from taking a trade that might prove really profitable in the event that I'm wrong, so give the technicals another run through your analysis.

Chart technicals:
See the spinning top candle on the weekly GJ chart. I'd watch that toward the weekend for some clues. Daily chart indicators are diverging hard. Kind of resembles EJ! I'd wait for a GJ pullback to 157-156 and then look for clues of upside resuming.
GU is creeping along the bottom of a TL slanting up (from 27 Sept), above that is another TL defined by the tops of the advance to date. It appears to run into a strong resistance area just below 1.6350 where there is a confluence of Fibs as well as the Jan 2013 high.

I will post my analysis once I have some time

edit: thanks for the EW compliment and confidence! I just feel like the most-wrong-most-time elliottician outthere the last few months - hence my fallback to RSI and MACD scalping of Gold! Been going well - doubled my account since I started that 2 weeks ago. (and no i dont have a before-and-after frickin' screenshot! )
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #17
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:00am Oct 1, 2013 3:00am
Quoting venzen
{quote} DHT, Not sure what signals you have for GJ. Also I am unsure what the fundamentals spell out (if they can be believed to act "as before" these days)... From a brief EW analysis of both I reckon the GJ is in for a pullback before completing its wave 5 (of 5) to around 163-164. Also, GU is nearing an upper TL so another pullback on the cards there with definite upside once the correction is done. I'd feel shame to discourage you from taking a trade that might prove really profitable in the event that I'm wrong, so give the technicals another...

interesting thoughts...

it is possible that the entry was a bit aggressive and perhaps sooner than warranted...

fundamentally, the trade is based on a GBP strength and JPY weakness, it makes sense from that perspective over the intermediate term, i think the targets are potentially much higher...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #18
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:05am Oct 1, 2013 3:05am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I think your point is a good one... looking at the long term weekly picture certainly does orient us in another way But, I think you nailed it on the head when you said "USD/CAD is mostly affected by QE right now"... I think this is spot on, The following is the same chart as you posted, but with a shorter look back, you will notice that it can achieve my price target (or close) while remaining in an overall bearish orientation (confluence of 161.8 ext on daily + 61.8 retrace on weekly)... at the moment, we have a lower high, and a test...
I'll have to agree with you on the whole punchbowl party thing.

As for the commodity market, in order for it to make a comeback, there has to be positive economic growth in the largest of the world economies; namely the United States and Europe, because who exactly is China going to supply with finished products if Europe and the US are not buying. If however they are buying, then that would mean that we have real (not calculated with pen and paper) growth in which case the punchbowl will not be there for too long and the USD will make a comeback.

Of course timing here is the issue. So, your statement about enjoying the party while the punchbowl is still in place is a valid one and things could very well work out the way you have forecasted. Although for me that poses a huge tail risk to dollar shorts especially considering how already beaten down it is. Call me chicken (), but I have a hard time chasing trades in their 5th wave. Maybe it's something I need to conquer, or perhaps it's something I should leave as is.

I suppose in the end, time will reveal all, but in the meantime I'm not buying into CAD strength... not that I don't believe it will get stronger, but rather because I believe that the end of its strength is very near, if not already imminent.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #19
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:07am Oct 1, 2013 3:07am
Ozzie Kiwi

looking a short (intermediate to long term) on fundamentals (interest rate differential/expectations)

but we have to be patient while it sets up... this would potentially be a very rewarding long term trade, with almost no exposure to USD risk on/off dynamics (good diversification)

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ozzie Kiwi Swing 10.01.13.png Size: 43 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #20
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:08am Oct 1, 2013 3:08am
Quoting venzen
{quote} and no i dont have a before-and-after frickin' screenshot! )

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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