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Attachments: Sultans of Swing
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Sultans of Swing

Quoting theDHT
Ozzie Kiwi looking a short (intermediate to long term) on fundamentals (interest rate differential/expectations) but we have to be patient while it sets up... this would potentially be a very rewarding long term trade, with almost no exposure to USD risk on/off dynamics (good diversification) Weekly {image}
I am banking on that entry zone being reached. I went long yesterday at 1.1235. Target 1.18 area. Wish me luck. It's a large position.
Basically I am looking for a reversion to the 200 day ema before any more down. This should coincide with the 38.2% fibo at 1.1765 and of course I expect some penetration.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'll have to agree with you on the whole punchbowl party thing. As for the commodity market, in order for it to make a comeback, there has to be positive economic growth in the largest of the world economies; namely the United States and Europe, because who exactly is China going to supply with finished products if Europe and the US are not buying. If however they are buying, then that would mean that we have real (not calculated with pen and paper) growth in which case the punchbowl will not be there for too long and the USD will...

to your point, which is valid, i would just add that Chinese imports of raw commodities (example: iron ore) is mostly a function of their own consumption, ie infrastructure development (highways, and ghost cities), which is a key component of the way they calculate GDP... and is therefore critical for them, as they MUST maintain a 7% benchmark rate... failing this, they would have major socioeconomic problems...

There are a variety of ways to play this theme, and I think my least favorite is the CAD, simply due to geographic proximity to the USD, but the NZD and AUD are looking good, for many of the same reasons (plus NZD has the tailwind of interest rate expectations)

I am certainly not implying that we "drink the koolade", but betting against central planning is not a good strategy at this point... maybe in a few years, Soros and his brand of bond vigilantes will break the fed, and it will be evident in the yield curve, but until then... party on!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I am banking on that entry zone being reached. I went long yesterday at 1.1235. Target 1.18 area. Wish me luck. It's a large position.

i think its a good CT trade! good luck dude!

I have too much exposure to these two pairs atm, so I cannot add to my existing, but I'll be ready for that short when we get there!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
{quote} to your point, which is valid, i would just add that Chinese imports of raw commodities (example: iron ore) is mostly a function of their own consumption, ie infrastructure development (highways, and ghost cities), which is a key component of the way they calculate GDP... and is therefore critical for them, as they MUST maintain a 7% benchmark rate... failing this, they would have major socioeconomic problems... There are a variety of ways to play this theme, and I think my least favorite is the CAD, simply due to geographic proximity to...
Yes I considered the domestic needs of iron ore for their infrastructure buildouts, but I quickly dismissed that as having any lasting effect in the absence of real growth.

Anyway, the macroeconomic landscape unfortunately is becoming blurred by proponomics so it's not always easy to apply logic.

What should happen may not happen because those who can make it happen are too busy dealing with what should not have happened due to somebody else making something happen because they felt that what should happen, wasn't going to.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • Post #25
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:02am Oct 1, 2013 4:50am | Edited at 5:02am
this article is awesome with some very eye opening charts and facts, hopefully if we are oriented the right way, we can remain profitable over the long term...

selected quotes and charts:

Economic Trends All Long-Term Investors Must Know

"the world has become increasingly interdependent. One measure of this interdependency is the share of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that comes from trade among countries."

"International credit markets are still closely tied together and when one node is stressed, the interdependence stresses other nodes. While global credit markets are currently calm, even the Basel III reforms cannot completely mitigate risks in a particular area from spreading again. When and if shocks in one part of the global financial system occur, they will still have large immediate effects on the rest of the world."

"The most dangerous guarantee provided by wealth managers is that US domestic equities will automatically continue to increase inflation adjusted earning power since they have done so in the past"

"where do long-term wealth managers look for long-term growth? A good place to start is to look at demographics. A useful device for analyzing demographics is the "population pyramid." A population pyramid provides a visual of the population shares of each sex and age cohort of the population. "

"No longer can long-term investors ignore today's economic trend toward increasing interdependence and key demographic trends that will take place throughout the world."

World Exports as % of GDP
Attached Image


Real GDP Growth Rates
Attached Image


Japan Population Pyramid
Attached Image

comment: burning cash and getting laid definitely have a correlation in the real world... not sure if that's applicable in the context of "Abenomics" though...

Link to full article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1675...tors-must-know

Recommended Reading:
The World is Curved - David M Smick
The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008 - Paul Krugman
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Gold

Risk On!

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Daily 10.01.13.png Size: 47 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting theDHT
this article is awesome with some very eye opening charts and facts, hopefully if we are oriented the right way, we can remain profitable over the long term... selected quotes and charts: Economic Trends All Long-Term Investors Must Know "the world has become increasingly interdependent. One measure of this interdependency is the share of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that comes from trade among countries." "International credit markets are still closely tied together and when one node is stressed, the interdependence stresses other nodes....
The gist of that article calls for this appropriate theme... Enjoy
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
imo, copper in significant compression

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=w1

if reaches 3.40 => risk on.

today good day to buy some with relatively small stop.
Quoting theDHT
{quote} to your point, which is valid, i would just add that Chinese imports of raw commodities (example: iron ore) is mostly a function of their own consumption, ie infrastructure development (highways, and ghost cities), which is a key component of the way they calculate GDP... and is therefore critical for them, as they MUST maintain a 7% benchmark rate... failing this, they would have major socioeconomic problems... There are a variety of ways to play this theme, and I think my least favorite is the CAD, simply due to geographic proximity to...
How Have Hedge Funds Positioned In FX So Far This Year? - BofA Merrill
http://www.efxnews.com/story/21000/h...r-bofa-merrill

Excerpt:
Putting all together, what will likely be the emerging pattern in FX till year-end?
"Our analysis suggests that CAD could be vulnerable to a worst case (risk-off) scenario; EMEA and LatAm in EM and AUD, NOK and SEK in G10 should perform well against JPY and CHF in a best case (risk-on) scenario," BofA concludes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting theDHT
Gold Risk On! Daily {image}
I think equities are a more reliable gauge of risk sentiment than gold - more specifically, the relationship between equities and gold. While the fed definitely turned risk on in the medium term, yesterday's rally in SPX wasn't matched with one in the Nikkei or FTSE. A genuine risk-based move would see all indices moving in unison.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
Cable
Short
H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Gidday DHT

Hows it going

GBP/US

some one buying

keeps climbing
Quoting theDHT
Cable Short H4 {image}
Are you flipping sentiment?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday DHT Hows it going GBP/US some one buying keeps climbing

Hey elite, hope you are well

I know dude, the GBP is unstoppable! But I think it looks a bit exhausted + there is a LONG term supply line just overhead... and after a week of USD weakness, we are due for a pause.

My stop is pretty tight (100 pips), and this move is mostly tactical, after which I have high hopes for Cable to go pretty far north...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Are you flipping sentiment?

no bro! this is purely tactical/opportunistic

long term, this is still my fav pair to go north, but nothing goes up in a straight line!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
I do swing trade and as soon I got something I will post at the moment I am short cadjpy and nzdchf and long usdchf....
Wherever you go, there you are.
Quoting theDHT
{quote} no bro! this is purely tactical/opportunistic long term, this is still my fav pair to go north, but nothing goes up in a straight line!

I know at least one thing that goes up in a straight line, but that topic belongs in a different forum
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The gist of that article calls for this appropriate theme... Enjoy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb_Jzgnrpv8
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I know at least one thing that goes up in a straight line, but that topic belongs in a different forum
its because of humor like this that the world thinks that most of us traders are a bunch of degenerate bastards!

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
Quoting milam
I do swing trade and as soon I got something I will post at the moment I am short cadjpy and nzdchf and long usdchf....

awesome dude

i just took a long USD/CHF this morning (closed my short for +200)

looking for ~130 pips, again, tactical only... this is a tough pair to expect too much movement cuz the SNB is very active in managing their X rate...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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