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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #347,381
  • Sep 23, 2013 10:14am Sep 23, 2013 10:14am
Quoting Maso
{quote} As I found last week, there is a big room for Yen to fall again and this pushes cable up.
Do you call yen fall when usd/jpy go down?
wrong
  • #347,382
  • Sep 23, 2013 10:31am Sep 23, 2013 10:31am
Quoting ForexRatVN
{quote} Are you sure the last week found still applies for this week? It seems she tired to fly and want to take a dive instead... another 100 - 120 pips down south is very possible, but not today as usual Monday. Then another 200 to somewhere 15700 before any up move if if if

One of the biggest spike up was caused by unemployment numbers dropping .1 % from 7.8 to 7.7
Similarly in the States most of these jobs were created in low paying service sector.In short insignificant.Overall average earnings are down which effects retail sells and latest data confirmed that.So I am not convinced yet that GB can come out of recession without same time Euro zone coming out as well.Biggest trading partner is Euro Zone and they are not doing well.Two are linked heavily.In comparison last quarter Car makers had one of their biggest profits in US suggesting purchasing power of US is getting stronger.I feel confident on my bear outlook on Cable.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #347,383
  • Sep 23, 2013 10:51am Sep 23, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Salmon I would suggest adding 80 and 20 RSI levels as well.Price often runs out of steam at those levels.Not a trade signal.I only use it as a warning system. example on recent NU {image}
Thanks Bro for the suggestion, am going to add these levels right now . by the way am still holding my shorts from 1.6080.
  • #347,384
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:47pm Sep 23, 2013 3:47pm
To give you guys an idea of what im currently looking at.

Cable on the weekly chart has made a precession of lower highs for more than 2 years now and has to be viewed (even by the bulls) as at or approaching the upper level of the weekly channel.

Now i entered short at every point of what i believed at the time to be the upper level of the range and i must admit the strength has surprised me and been brought about by what was an improved stream of data coming out of the UK and EU. This has coincided with the Fed pulling away (temporarily) from the taper and resulted in what is i believe a very good opportunity for those brave bears out there.

Im more than 10k upside down on account right now but can handle it (15% DD) and will be looking for 1.52 or 1.53 as an exit. A couple of years ago i would have kept adding but im happy to hold as i am with 8.11 lots.

Stops would be anything piercing 1.635 which could signal a long term change in the set trading range of the past few years.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money never sleeps...
  • #347,385
  • Sep 23, 2013 4:23pm Sep 23, 2013 4:23pm
Other than the inevitable oscillations in price both ways the overall short term (ie till end of year ?) direction of gbpusd [ ie more upside toward 1.65....or downside toward 1.55] will be likely decided by the fundamental environment ;

1. Whether market has accepted carney's forward guidance re likely trigger for rate rise.
2. Looming debt ceiling battle in the U.s
3. Fed chair appointment (Yellan, or someone more out of left field, or a Bernanke extension ?)
4. Whether Fomc tapering begins, how much and when
5. On going data releases and whether supportive of strengthening or patchy economic recovery/growth on both sides of the Atlantic.

Technically right now the situation remains more bullish than bearish on the Daily and Weekly, with Monthly ranging.

G/L
ex member
  • #347,386
  • Sep 23, 2013 4:25pm Sep 23, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting inpatient
To give you guys an idea of what im currently looking at. Cable on the weekly chart has made a precession of lower highs for more than 2 years now and has to be viewed (even by the bulls) as at or approaching the upper level of the weekly channel. Now i entered short at every point of what i believed at the time to be the upper level of the range and i must admit the strength has surprised me and been brought about by what was an improved stream of data coming out of the UK and EU. This has coincided with the Fed pulling away (temporarily) from...

I totally understand the situation since I am in same predicament.Like you said since shorting from 57 every data was positive other then recent retail sales which caused over 100pips drop.
Coined with Feds backing off made things even more bullish.Having said this I am holding my shorts to 1.55 TP. What I find interesting that some post "why not go long" after 300pips move already.Hindsight is easy.We just have to accept that sometimes markets do opposite what we perceive.Nothing wrong with that.Donchian one of my favorite traders was wrong almost 70% still made millions.
Stephane keep on eye on Kiwi for shorts as soon as things turn around.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #347,387
  • Sep 23, 2013 4:51pm Sep 23, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Stephane keep on eye on Kiwi for shorts as soon as things turn around. Regards
I cant stop looking at that damn kiwi chart. As you know i love that bird (it was you that actually got me hooked on it).

If i was not so exposed on cable i would be all over it bro.....
Money never sleeps...
  • #347,388
  • Sep 24, 2013 1:35am Sep 24, 2013 1:35am
Quoting inpatient
To give you guys an idea of what im currently looking at. Cable on the weekly chart has made a precession of lower highs for more than 2 years now and has to be viewed (even by the bulls) as at or approaching the upper level of the weekly channel. Now i entered short at every point of what i believed at the time to be the upper level of the range and i must admit the strength has surprised me and been brought about by what was an improved stream of data coming out of the UK and EU. This has coincided with the Fed pulling away (temporarily) from...

impressed..very good analysis bro
  • #347,389
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:12am Sep 24, 2013 3:12am
Small pip range (<20 day atr) bullish bodied candle yesterday whose body engulfed the previous daily candle's body...asian session was down with a bounce at early London session..German IFO saw a pull thru in cable to the downside on the knee-jerk react to that in eurusd, pulling price below the Asian lo.....1hr mixed now re opa, 4hr opa uptrend in some doubt and daily, weekly opa uptrends still intact.

G/L
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ex member
  • #347,390
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:23am Sep 24, 2013 3:23am
i hope cable will further go down... im short with 10 pips+
  • #347,391
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:41am Sep 24, 2013 3:41am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I totally understand the situation since I am in same predicament.Like you said since shorting from 57 every data was positive other then recent retail sales which caused over 100pips drop. Coined with Feds backing off made things even more bullish.Having said this I am holding my shorts to 1.55 TP. What I find interesting that some post "why not go long" after 300pips move already.Hindsight is easy.We just have to accept that sometimes markets do opposite what we perceive.Nothing wrong with that.Donchian one of my favorite traders was...

dont worry cable will go down..the index has hit a brick wall
  • #347,392
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:46am Sep 24, 2013 3:46am
price slips below the 100sma on 1hr and a downside break of the steepest ascending trend line on 4hr...how much demand down to 5985 now ?

G/L
ex member
  • #347,393
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:51am Sep 24, 2013 3:51am
thank you! yesterday i started live and just last night i lost 25 dollars... good cable went down and audusd...
  • #347,394
  • Sep 24, 2013 3:59am Sep 24, 2013 3:59am
Quoting Tiyaga
thank you! yesterday i started live and just last night i lost 25 dollars... good cable went down and audusd...
looking for a monthly pin bar
tony i know u are all over this bro..haha
  • #347,395
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:06am Sep 24, 2013 4:06am
Price slips below Friday's 5985 low - currently finding demand at the previous minor 1hr swing hi zone....last (post Uk data) 1hr close very bearish.

G/L
ex member
  • #347,396
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:09am Sep 24, 2013 4:09am
i closed it. ahahahah im such a noob closed cable and audusd open long usd cad....
  • #347,397
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:34am Sep 24, 2013 4:34am
SocGen calling for 6382 upside target in cable ?...a few investment houses/banks now calling upside targets recently.

Monthly range persists with recent signs of strength re the daily/weekly general opa uptrends.

G/L
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ex member
  • #347,398
  • Sep 24, 2013 4:57am Sep 24, 2013 4:57am
Barclays calling for 1.6380...

Hmmmmm......

Not sure what to do with this last one.

Techs and banks trade call contra-indicator both showing a possible drop, but not sure whether to close out now or wait for the daily TL break on this last open long
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #347,399
  • Sep 24, 2013 5:23am Sep 24, 2013 5:23am
Barclays also called for 1.5300 within 1 month on 23rd August. Its already been 1 month and I don't see 1.5300!
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #347,400
  • Sep 24, 2013 5:26am Sep 24, 2013 5:26am
Quoting Tiyaga
i closed it. ahahahah im such a noob closed cable and audusd open long usd cad....
I'm also long on USD/CAD
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
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