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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #346,701
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:39am Sep 11, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Nice eh...

this is not the crazy i was looking for ..im in the shit now
  • #346,702
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:44am Sep 11, 2013 3:44am
As posted yesterday 138.2% extension of the last 5716-5427 daily swing at the current post day hi (161.8% is at 5897)...popped thru the 5751 prev swing hi before the data and then another leg up on it....very overbought at the hi on the lower t/f's. (shock horror - hold the front page - the greater probability played out again !)

G/L
ex member
  • #346,703
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:45am Sep 11, 2013 3:45am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #346,704
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:49am Sep 11, 2013 3:49am
it is not often u see a broadening traingle which make a higher high then a lower low then a higher high again..jeez

this is a friggin tornado in da house
  • #346,705
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:50am Sep 11, 2013 3:50am
Have just changed from long to short at 1.5770 added at 1.5815 and will add again at 1.5860ish....
Loser trying to become a winner!
  • #346,706
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:52am Sep 11, 2013 3:52am
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  • #346,707
  • Sep 11, 2013 3:57am Sep 11, 2013 3:57am
daily shows the current hi...

G/L
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Click to Enlarge Name: z.jpg Size: 253 KB
ex member
  • #346,708
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:16am Sep 11, 2013 4:16am
Interesting 7.7 instead of 7.8 caused over 100pips spike.
I am not buying.Not strong enough number to go higher.Price dropped 5825 to 5770 in 30 min...
This is when retail traders go long and get killed thinking trend is surly 100% going up.I could be wrong as well but buying now doesn't look promising.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #346,709
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:19am Sep 11, 2013 4:19am
We just touched last Nov low, It'll be interesting to see if this Triple bottom on Weekly chart works out !
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #346,710
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:21am Sep 11, 2013 4:21am
Quoting Freshpips
{quote} I think your right. Also, its no coincidence that the market has moved to the price all traders are watching just as the news is about to come out....
Clearly smeone had unfair advantage bt a wudn't advice smone to follow such moves b4 data is released...cud be a trap
  • #346,711
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:23am Sep 11, 2013 4:23am
Quoting Davit
Interesting 7.7 instead of 7.8 caused over 100pips spike. I am not buying.Not strong enough number to go higher.Price dropped 5825 to 5770 in 30 min... This is when retail traders go long and get killed thinking trend is surly 100% going up.I could be wrong as well but buying now doesn't look promising.

1.58 is a round number which historically has been respected, should as resistance..gbp news has been great
i have a feeling it will be very tough to cross higher

the move from 1.63 to here is approx 61.8 retrace..giving weight to 1.58 to act as a barrier
  • #346,712
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:24am Sep 11, 2013 4:24am
Quoting Mrpipstar
{quote} Clearly smeone had unfair advantage bt a wudn't advice smone to follow such moves b4 data is released...cud be a trap
Yes could well be.

I scalped a dangerous 17 pips from 1.58, could have held on but dont trust it. Going to let the dust settle now before deciding my next move.
  • #346,713
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:25am Sep 11, 2013 4:25am
Quoting hoom
{quote} yeah , I bet they knew those numbers way before us...
And I knew before them lol...
Been long since 5530 area after Carney spoke
Just wish I hadn't closed out my other 4 trades at 5710-40.
Just 1 long left to see how far she goes .
Good number at 4.30FF calendar time
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,714
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:29am Sep 11, 2013 4:29am
Quoting Davit
Interesting 7.7 instead of 7.8 caused over 100pips spike. I am not buying.Not strong enough number to go higher.Price dropped 5825 to 5770 in 30 min... This is when retail traders go long and get killed thinking trend is surly 100% going up.I could be wrong as well but buying now doesn't look promising.
I'm thinking it was the high impact (RED) news Claimant count change
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,715
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:33am Sep 11, 2013 4:33am
You only have to look at the trade explorer here on this site to see 'retailers' have been shorting this obvious uptrend to the daily chart with signs of strength on weekly all the way - no doubt all nursing out of the money positions and those trades have turned to ' hope ' trades. Look at yesterday's daily candle - it engulfed the previous day's daily candle upper wick - what do you think the greater probability was therefore ? - and this is where it is at - determining (where possible) then accepting what the greater probability is instead of getting against it...it doesn't always play out - but it mostly does - that's why it's called the greater probability. It isn't always easy to tell if it exists/what it might be - but when it is - get with it ! None of us know what will happen next - all we have is the greater probability where it is able to be determined...learn to do this and you will not go far wrong as the basis of an edge.

G/L
ex member
  • #346,716
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:35am Sep 11, 2013 4:35am
It was probably both and this playing into recent upturn in economy iin Uk...generally good data recently and of course Carney's 7% un-emp rate benchmark before looking at raising rates etc... (is it 7% re forward guidance ? - can't remember lol !)

G/L

Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} I'm thinking it was the high impact (RED) news Claimant count change
ex member
  • #346,717
  • Sep 11, 2013 4:49am Sep 11, 2013 4:49am
I think bbmac is spot on. i've been wanting to go long on this pair for quite some time and luckily scalped a couple successful trades. I thought yesterday was a good day to enter a short for an extended period of time, BUT as bbmac points out there were too many indicators if not pointing to possible upward movement, certainly indecision. its annoying because i'm still looking for a short entry.

For myself i'd like to see where this pair end by the end of american sessions today. if we close below 1.5750 i wouldn't be so convinced of a lot of long momentum.
  • #346,718
  • Sep 11, 2013 5:03am Sep 11, 2013 5:03am
Quoting bbmac
It was probably both and this playing into recent upturn in economy iin Uk...generally good data recently and of course Carney's 7% un-emp rate benchmark before looking at raising rates etc... (is it 7% re forward guidance ? - can't remember lol !) G/L {quote}
No neither can I

But looking waaaay back even into the 1990's on the monthly chart, I.57 is obviously important.
If we close this month above 1.57, the 2nd 900 pip weekly leg could come into play

Good luck
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 35 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,719
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:11am Sep 11, 2013 6:11am
Blue TL retest has my interest

And with our "friends" Goldman Sachs calling for the USD to strengthen and gold to drop through to the end of the year.....

Well, need I say more
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily1.png Size: 29 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #346,720
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:14am Sep 11, 2013 6:14am
Quoting bbmac
You only have to look at the trade explorer here on this site to see 'retailers' have been shorting this obvious uptrend to the daily chart with signs of strength on weekly all the way - no doubt all nursing out of the money positions and those trades have turned to ' hope ' trades. Look at yesterday's daily candle - it engulfed the previous day's daily candle upper wick - what do you think the greater probability was therefore ? - and this is where it is at - determining (where possible) then accepting what the greater probability is instead of...
It depends how you trade. I didn't take long this morning, because shorting is safer atm, so I used this spike to load shorts and now waiting .5700. If it goes higher, I load more. Gravity starts to work soon
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