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EUR/CHF

  • #11,001
  • Sep 4, 2013 8:16am Sep 4, 2013 8:16am
Quoting Willow
Grand spike allert !! [email protected] Target - ~1.32 in 4-5 months.
Its going to take a while at 20 pips a day willow
  • #11,002
  • Sep 4, 2013 8:24am Sep 4, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Tornado667
I also wanted to share my view on this pair. I have been trading almost only it for around a year now. And also reading this topic for some time now My view is that it should have a new spike soon - around September 18-19. It's purely calendar view It has had spikes in almost exact 4 month intervals (19th September last year, 18th January and on 22nd May) with two lower highs in between. FOMC statement on 18th September I hope will give a power to this pair to achieve new high Good luck in trading

do these spikes up every 4 months have anything to do with the SNB monetry meeting when the market was concerned the bank may put the floor up to 1.30?

If so these spikes have become smaller since the market no longer expects a change from the SNB
  • #11,003
  • Sep 4, 2013 9:31am Sep 4, 2013 9:31am
Quoting brinks
{quote} do these spikes up every 4 months have anything to do with the SNB monetry meeting when the market was concerned the bank may put the floor up to 1.30? If so these spikes have become smaller since the market no longer expects a change from the SNB
I was not looking at fundamentals why each spike was in the past, but wanted to show some different view from technical side
And even if spikes are smaller, the low before possible spike is higher than in previous cases.
Of course, fundamentals happening now (possible military actions) might not let it go so high, but some move upwards I predict. Lets see.
  • #11,004
  • Sep 4, 2013 9:33am Sep 4, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Tornado667
{quote} I was not looking at fundamentals why each spike was in the past, but wanted to show some different view from technical side And even if spikes are smaller, the low before possible spike is higher than in previous cases. Of course, fundamentals happening now (possible military actions) might not let it go so high, but some move upwards I predict. Lets see.
ahh ok i was just saying if you were looking at the calander and saw those spikes and it was the same time as the SNB meeting that was probably the reason for the spike.
  • #11,005
  • Sep 4, 2013 11:30am Sep 4, 2013 11:30am
Today's action is looking very positive. If we can close above the 1.235 level then we may have a run up to 1.24
  • #11,006
  • Sep 4, 2013 11:37am Sep 4, 2013 11:37am
wrong thread
  • #11,007
  • Sep 5, 2013 12:10am Sep 5, 2013 12:10am
R1 hit already at 1.23692
  • #11,008
  • Sep 5, 2013 12:33am Sep 5, 2013 12:33am
R2 = 1.23869

USD CHF looks like its broke through resistance and is heading north.
  • #11,009
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:04am Sep 5, 2013 1:04am
Nice little morning 'swing'... Real things starts now. To me 1.2385 is major resistance & UJ is just bellow psychological 100 mark... They will both succeed or both fail. We should have enough happening today to make it all happen
  • #11,010
  • Sep 5, 2013 1:15am Sep 5, 2013 1:15am
Anyone else see it now pushing up against a daily triangle which if broken should mean a upmove of around 500 pips?

obviously it needs to get through 1.243300 area as well first.
  • #11,011
  • Sep 5, 2013 2:35am Sep 5, 2013 2:35am
Quoting PhilouFX
Nice little morning 'swing'... Real things starts now. To me 1.2385 is major resistance & UJ is just bellow psychological 100 mark... They will both succeed or both fail. We should have enough happening today to make it all happen

Yes, in the same time
  • #11,012
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:18am Sep 5, 2013 3:18am
Quoting brinks
Anyone else see it now pushing up against a daily triangle which if broken should mean a upmove of around 500 pips? obviously it needs to get through 1.243300 area as well first.
hi Brinks, hope you could get back in

Im eyeing on the weekly, where the upper TL is not that unambiguous, so just took some profit.
IMO currently we are somewhere on the TL a clear break yes a close above 1,2435 or similar
  • #11,013
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:24am Sep 5, 2013 3:24am
Does anybody know what Kuroda said in his press conference?
  • #11,014
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:28am Sep 5, 2013 3:28am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} hi Brinks, hope you could get back in Im eyeing on the weekly, where the upper TL is not that unambiguous, so just took some profit. IMO currently we are somewhere on the TL a clear break yes a close above 1,2435 or similar
Hey pip yep I managed to get in when it showed a bit more momentum but not as heavy as I would of been
Holmes you can see his comments on forexlive if you like
  • #11,015
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:30am Sep 5, 2013 3:30am
I am skeptical for that big move, brinks, maybe time to get some of long profits since Syria issue is on the way which will drive the pair down again.
  • #11,016
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:34am Sep 5, 2013 3:34am
Quoting holmes
Does anybody know what Kuroda said in his press conference?
here you go (sorry for the off but many of us are interested here I think)
DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: To Take Necessary Steps if Sales Tax Hike Makes Inflation Goal Difficult
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Japan's Moderate Econ Recovery Could Be Sustainable
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: If Sales Tax Hike Delay Causes Long-Term Rates to Jump, Difficult to Respond with Monetary Policy
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Positive Cycle Between Income and Spending Has Started Working Firmly
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ Ability to Handle Yield Jumps Amid Loss of Mkt Confidence "Very Limited"
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Japanese Cos are Clearly Increasing Capital Spending
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Not Clear If Mkt Would Fully Trust Any New Tax Plan
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Will Closely Watch Effects of Syria Conflict on Global Fincl Mkts
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Difficult to Gauge Impact on Econ, Mkts if Tax Hike Delayed
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Fincl Mkts Again Getting a Bit Jittery Over Possible Fed Tapering
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Risk of Yield Jumps May Not Be That High, But Hard to Respond if Materialize
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Overseas Econs a Bit Weaker, While Domestic Econs a Bit Stronger than BOJ Thought in April
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: If Tax Hike Has Significant Impact on Econ, Could Be Dealt With Using Fiscal Policy
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Pace of Rise in CPI in Line With BOJ's Expectations
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Econ to Maintain Positive Growth Path Even if Tax Raised as Planned
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Can't Say Global Econ Completely Recovered From Shock of 2008 Global Fincl Crisis
* DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Don't Think Huge Risks, Like Global Fincl Crisis, Will Emerge
DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: To Take Necessary Steps if Sales Tax Hike Makes Inflation Goal Difficult
By Takashi Nakamichi and Tatsuo Ito
TOKYO--Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Thursday he is ready to take appropriate steps if a planned sales-tax hike in April deals a significant blow to the nation's economy, threatening to derail the central bank's efforts to hit its 2% inflation target.
If the government moves ahead with the tax increase as scheduled and if that "makes it difficult for us to achieve a price stability target, we will take necessary measures in response," Mr. Kuroda said.
The BOJ governor didn't specify what measures he had in mind should such a scenario materialize.
Earlier in the day, the central bank declared that the world's third-biggest economy was back on a recovery track, a development that could tip the balance in favor of those who support a sales-tax hike from next spring as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nears a decision on whether to go ahead with the plan.
The BOJ's nine-member policy board decided to stand pat on monetary policy.
Takashi Nakamichi at [email protected] and Tatsuo Ito at [email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 05, 2013 03:55 ET (07:55 GMT)
  • #11,017
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:41am Sep 5, 2013 3:41am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} here you go (sorry for the off but many of us are interested here I think) DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: To Take Necessary Steps if Sales Tax Hike Makes Inflation Goal Difficult * DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Japan's Moderate Econ Recovery Could Be Sustainable * DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: If Sales Tax Hike Delay Causes Long-Term Rates to Jump, Difficult to Respond with Monetary Policy * DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: Positive Cycle Between Income and Spending Has Started Working Firmly * DJ BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ Ability to Handle Yield Jumps Amid Loss of Mkt Confidence "Very Limited"...

I am sorry but I am a bit confused, if the hike in tax happens Nikkei will lose, right?
  • #11,018
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:42am Sep 5, 2013 3:42am
Quoting holmes
I am skeptical for that big move, brinks, maybe time to get some of long profits since Syria issue is on the way which will drive the pair down again.

This is exactly what I did ...

More over, I still keep some position long, & take a short (with lower leverage then the long), objective back to 1.230...
  • #11,019
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:45am Sep 5, 2013 3:45am
Quoting holmes
{quote} I am sorry but I am a bit confused, if the hike in tax happens Nikkei will lose, right?
Stock markets are addicted to cash injection (QE), not taxes to people.
  • #11,020
  • Sep 5, 2013 3:46am Sep 5, 2013 3:46am
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} This is exactly what I did ... More over, I still keep some position long, & take a short (with lower leverage then the long), objective back to 1.230...

I guess right steps you have taken, NFP is due today and if it comes not strong enough to signal tapering this pair gets back too.
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