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EUR/CHF

  • #10,961
  • Aug 30, 2013 5:05am Aug 30, 2013 5:05am
Quoting PhilouFX
Agree with all point of views. The most difficult aspects is the potential gap on Sunday night (which could be up or down). I personally reduce my exposure, but still keep some positions. I guess next week will see some high volatility...
I dont think there will be gap up. But in this case, the gap will be closed soon, so you could buy at friday close level.
  • #10,962
  • Aug 30, 2013 7:17am Aug 30, 2013 7:17am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} I dont think there will be gap up. But in this case, the gap will be closed soon, so you could buy at friday close level.
Wait till the first rocket flies across the sea on Sunday & watch the gap then... and it might not be closed so soon ...
So, for that, I would rather take long on Sunday night with a stop I control, rather then on Friday with a bit of a gambling attitude.

We'll see
  • #10,963
  • Aug 30, 2013 7:20am Aug 30, 2013 7:20am
do you mean gap up ?
  • #10,964
  • Aug 30, 2013 7:44am Aug 30, 2013 7:44am
Quoting daka
do you mean gap up ?

Gap down i think was meant
  • #10,965
  • Aug 30, 2013 8:56am Aug 30, 2013 8:56am
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} Wait till the first rocket flies across the sea on Sunday & watch the gap then... and it might not be closed so soon ... So, for that, I would rather take long on Sunday night with a stop I control, rather then on Friday with a bit of a gambling attitude. We'll see
Again this looks too obvious for me the whole world expects it isnt it priced in already?
If not Ill be more than happy to take my part in filling the gap.
  • #10,966
  • Aug 30, 2013 9:23am Aug 30, 2013 9:23am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Again this looks too obvious for me the whole world expects it isnt it priced in already? If not Ill be more than happy to take my part in filling the gap.
I guess it now starts to be priced in... or let's say no one would not take a new buy position.

Everything is priced in, but take the Fed tapering of the QE, all has been said, discussed, priced in... but by the time it is officially announced you will still see high volatility.
  • #10,967
  • Edited 11:02am Aug 30, 2013 10:51am | Edited 11:02am
Bounces off the daily 200 have become weaker and weaker 500,250,150 to 70 pips

and with a daily close down near it today is it gonna hold into the beginning of next week.

Is it going to hold today? A weekly close below wouldnt be good.

Nobody wants to hold long eur/chf into the weekend.
  • #10,968
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:45pm Aug 30, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting brinks
Bounces off the daily 200 have become weaker and weaker 500,250,150 to 70 pips and with a daily close down near it today is it gonna hold into the beginning of next week. Is it going to hold today? A weekly close below wouldnt be good. Nobody wants to hold long eur/chf into the weekend.
I will

regarding attacks in Sy I think its still some time left in previous wars there were many verbal pre interventions
  • #10,969
  • Aug 30, 2013 12:56pm Aug 30, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting pipxster
{quote} I will regarding attacks in Sy I think its still some time left in previous wars there were many verbal pre interventions
Im the same pip and will add on the way down
  • #10,970
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:09pm Aug 30, 2013 3:09pm
Guys, years back, I watched with big round eyes the 127th warning to the Serbes... Hence I have to somehow agree with you.
I copied a good pic, that says it all.

Enjoy your W.E.
Attached Image
  • #10,971
  • Sep 1, 2013 1:33am Sep 1, 2013 1:33am
Quoting PhilouFX
Guys, years back, I watched with big round eyes the 127th warning to the Serbes... Hence I have to somehow agree with you. I copied a good pic, that says it all. Enjoy your W.E. {image}

Well you are right PhilouFX.

I'm still not sure this means we will see eur/chf move up still a lot of uncertainty going on and German elections.
  • #10,972
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:02pm Sep 1, 2013 2:02pm
NZ (pre) trading 1,23144 bid
  • #10,973
  • Sep 1, 2013 2:44pm Sep 1, 2013 2:44pm
something to read

http://www.tothetick.com/wp-content/...h=97&zc=1&q=90
US Banks on Swiss: RIP
By Tothetick on August 31, 2013 in Economic News Analysis, Featured, Stocks with0 Comments



inShare
The Buffets and the Gates of the US will be shedding a few tears this week as the United States and Switzerland have reached an agreement that brings the status of the latter as a tax haven for Americans (or will they?). No more hiding their cash away in Swiss banks. No more tax avoidance and money laundering. No more secret accounts and banking secrecy. At one time bankers could be trusted to keep secrets. These days they can’t. There’s always someone somewhere willing to pay more than the secret of what you have locked away in the vaults is actually worth.
The US and Switzerland have been talking over the possibility of putting a stop to the flow of money from the US into the Swiss banks for three years and have just found some common ground. Although it is hard to see just what advantage the Swiss state has got out of the whole affair. Swiss banks will end up being punished if they have aided and abetted wealthy US citizens in their attempts to hide money from the tax authorities. They will also be required to provide details to the US authorities regarding the account holders as well as details about people who are working on the accounts at the banks. Is this the end of Swiss banking?
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961)]http://www.tothetick.com/wp-content/...ng-Secrecy.jpg
US: Swiss Banking Secrecy
[/highlight]
It seems that this will only marginally change things however, since for a number of years now already the Swiss bankers have been afraid of increased administration that has been imposed by US authorities and have ended up declining US-based clients from opening accounts with them. Although, it will have the added problem of making it very hard for a US citizen that is living or working in Switzerland to manage to actually open a bank account. The Swiss banks will refuse to do so after this agreement with the US. It’s all very well wishing to reduce tax havens, but what more does the US state actually want in terms of controlling US citizens that wish to open bank accounts in the place where they are living and working?
Delusions?
It also seems that the US authorities are under the greatest delusion believing that because the Swiss bankers refuse to open bank accounts that the US citizens that wish to place their wealth in other tax havens won’t be doing so. The Swiss banks are just a few amongst many world tax havens. The latter will naturally be opening the doors with welcome arms. Forbidding anything never stopped people doing it. Anyhow, perhaps we have all been deluded ourselves into believing that the National Security Agency was far more powerful than it actually was or is with its eavesdropping. Surely they could locate right down to the last dime the money that they are losing in tax avoidance?
But, that said, you would have to have been born just about yesterday at 4pm to still believe that Swiss banks would keep your secrets. Switzerland has been in the firing line for many years now with regard to their banking system.
The only thing that the Swiss will get out of it is that they will be able to write off all disputes with the US regarding taxation that has been voided due to money being placed in their banks. But, the future?
The Swiss Finance Minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf stated that the reputation of Switzerland’s banking sector and financial services depended on the agreement going through so that people might have confidence in the banking system. But, isn’t it just the opposite that made Swiss banks famous? Wasn’t it the secret and the fact that it was like a confessional box where anything that was said in the protected basement vaults stayed there? Whatever happens in a Swiss bank stays in a Swiss bank? No more, you had better get to Vegas; things apparently still stay there when they happen.
[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.701961)]http://www.tothetick.com/wp-content/...wiss-banks.jpg
Swiss Banks
[/highlight]

Intimidation?
The case of the Swiss banker that was arrested in April 2013 after having travelled to the USA showed the determination of the US authorities to come down upon tax evasion and tax havens with a mighty blow. The banker had entered the US on a vacation visa in New York. Although, once again the impunity of the US authorities to believe that it has the right to arrest anyone that enters the country for no apparent reason beggars belief. Just because you’re a banker doesn’t mean that the US can arrest you, does it? Intimidation? Bad for your image, at least. That’s not the way things are done in the world. Or, they shouldn’t be done like that. We don’t intimidate people that work for structures that are legal whether we like it or not. Change the laws, come to agreements. Stop using priggish, bullying force to get your own way. It’s not the bankers that are responsible for something that was set up long before they were out of diapers and into daiquiris.
People in senior positions in banks in Switzerland were advised to avoid travelling to the US at the start of this year. So, perhaps the only thing that occurred was for the US to lose out on visitors; visitors that were wealthy bankers to boot. It won’t change anything. While loopholes exist, the wealthy will find a way of exploiting the system and the administration is far too big and by the time the cog-wheels get moving for a change, the people have moved on to another place.
Secrecy Gone
In March 2013 Swiss banks such as Wegelin & Co. agreed to pay roughly $58 million in fines. They had admitted to helping hide $1.2 billion from the Internal Revenue Service. UBS also ended up paying a penalty of $780 million for having helped US citizens avoid taxes.
Now, the secrecy has gone in Swiss banks, who in their right mind would bank anywhere near Geneva? In 2012, there were 145 foreign-owned banks based in Switzerland. Today that number has fallen to just under 130. It’s not just the Swiss that were secretive. The foreign-based banks were also complacently happy with doing the same. Today, Switzerland has an offshore banking industry that is worth $2.2 trillion. That’s still the largest in the world. But, for how long?
It seems that Singapore is where the money flows are now going as the Swiss banks are seeing money being withdrawn from accounts in a capital flight. By 2020 Singapore is expected to be the number one destination for tax avoidance.
The solution? Perhaps like the other 670 US citizens did in the first half of this year: relinquish all rights to Americancitizenship and along with it avoid paying your taxation. The figure is the highest since data was first compiled in1998. Eduardo Saverin (Facebook founder) went last year. Isabel Getty (daughter Christopher Getty) threw in the towel this year along with Mahmood Karzai (brother of the President of Afghanistan). So far, 39, 000 US citizens have come forward and owned up to having secret bank accounts outside of the US in the past few years. But, that’s just a minute sample of what is winging its way to the tax havens of the world.
But, it’s far from just the world’s wealthy. Secret files that were revealed by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalism in April 2013 showed that it was the dentists, the doctors that were at it too. There were even Greek villagers sitting alongside the Russian executives and the Wall Street fiddlers that were hiding their stash of cash in tax havens. It’s not just the mega-buck earners. It is estimated that there may be between $21 and $32 trillionthat is hidden somewhere in an off-shore bank account around the world. The 50 largest private banks in the world saw their assets grow from $5.4 trillion (2005) to $12 trillion (2010). Those private banks provide services to mainly high net worth people and they also happen to provide access to tax havens.
Whatever is happening with this world?
There was a time when the Swiss were known for being bankers, the Chinese were corrupt and the US was fair. Admittedly it was a long time ago, now. The Swiss just make chocolate and watches now.
The Chinese slap fines on companies that dabble with the Shanghai Composite and the US has become corrupt. Or were they just hiding that from everyone else?
  • #10,974
  • Sep 2, 2013 1:48am Sep 2, 2013 1:48am
@ pipxster i suppose your article above would benefit dollar swissie?

I see Thomas Jordan has been on the wires again.

Usual stuff about the cap
  • #10,975
  • Sep 2, 2013 2:28am Sep 2, 2013 2:28am
Some technical observations:

1. Gap up today which was not filled.
2. H4 has crossed above SMA 20.
3. D1 is touching SMA 20.

If today's action can pass Thursday's high I think we're looking bullish at the start of this week. Price has not made a lower low for a long time. We have some lower highs which could be passed this week as they're close due to the small range recently.

Lower highs and higher lows are usually followed by a strong break out.
  • #10,976
  • Sep 2, 2013 2:33am Sep 2, 2013 2:33am
Quoting Lover Man
Some technical observations: 1. Gap up today which was not filled. 2. H4 has crossed above SMA 20. 3. D1 is touching SMA 20. If today's action can pass Thursday's high I think we're looking bullish at the start of this week. Price has not made a lower low for a long time. We have some lower highs which could be passed this week as they're close due to the small range recently. Lower highs and higher lows are usually followed by a strong break out.

I agree.
  • #10,977
  • Sep 2, 2013 3:04am Sep 2, 2013 3:04am
Hi guys,

Here under my understanding of the situation & my plan for the week:

I do not expect of lot of movements this week (although I expect a lot of it for the rest of the forex late week & for the rest of the month).

To me, the CHF will react to BIG issues, not to 'noise':

Big issues to me are:
- Syria of course (just see the down pressure on Fri 30th - as potential bombardments could take place on Sunday & how it is performing over the past 1 hours, now that nothing will happened till Sept 9th).
- Fed with it's QE tapering, BCE policy
- To a lesser extend; Japan & JPY, more by correlation rather then cause & effect.

Noise:
- German election, here again I could be wrong, but since no extremist parties are high in the pools, how bad could it go?
- All statistics. Yes, it might affects the rate the 30 to 40 pips, but for how long & these would not change the trend.

So my trading week:
- Probably quiet; above 1.2284 (probably above 1.2314), but we will not pass the 1.238 resistance. Slight up move trend
- Friday: selling pressure will resume, as we get close from Sept 9th, which could be the green light for US retaliation on Syria. So, from where we will be on Thursday evening, I see a drop of 1 or 2 supports level on Friday (this could is 40 to 60 pips)...

PS: yes, everything is priced in and markets anticipate, but wait till the first bomb goes off, and USD will gain 50pips against all other currencies, indices will drop mini 4%, even after anticipation.

Wish you lot's of pips for this week.
  • #10,978
  • Sep 2, 2013 4:38am Sep 2, 2013 4:38am
Its always a concern for me that this pair cannot go up.

No matter what news comes out or how it looks technically it just never manages to go up
  • #10,979
  • Sep 2, 2013 7:33am Sep 2, 2013 7:33am
I'm beginning to prefer the look of the GBP CHF chart. Thinking about putting some money there long.
  • #10,980
  • Sep 3, 2013 2:22am Sep 3, 2013 2:22am
So we've hit R1 already at 1.23386. I wont bore you all with the other pivots unless anyone is interested.

I would like some advice please. I am good at buying on the way down but dont like buying on the way up.

Putting to one side the discussion about if this will go up or down how would you guys decide where to buy as we go up. Do I just buy above resistance levels or wait for dips?
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