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EUR/CHF

  • #10,941
  • Aug 28, 2013 8:44am Aug 28, 2013 8:44am
Quoting PhilouFX
XAU, XAG release pressure, Oil: release pressure DAX: no panic yet DOW: holding at time of USD opening USDJPY: nice rounding bottom, nearly 1.00 up since yesturday EURUSD: still in it range EURCHF:.... stuck at the bottom.... I guess as time passes by & more people are talking 1.20x, 1.21x, some long orders on 1.228 / 1.225 are being removed... Making the potential fall faster !!??.... But, we are not there yet..
Nice if people talk 1.20x so that can go 1.28x
  • #10,942
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:23am Aug 28, 2013 9:23am
As long as my 200 ma at 1.2274 holds, I'm confortable. should the line break, I don't see any more technical reason for an upmove... But if it holds, we'll see higher highs! :-) We allways scratched the 200 MA before the next upmove... Therefore i longed again @ 1.2295 and 1.2290 with stop at 1.2265.
  • #10,943
  • Aug 28, 2013 9:25am Aug 28, 2013 9:25am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Nice if people talk 1.20x so that can go 1.28x
hihihi... your not totally wrong. Each time we hit 1.228, some guys are worried that the floor might break & each time to hit 1.24, these same guys are expecting to hit 1.28 within days...
Personally, I am happy with the range 1.225 to 1.242
  • #10,944
  • Aug 28, 2013 11:37am Aug 28, 2013 11:37am
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} hihihi... your not totally wrong. Each time we hit 1.228, some guys are worried that the floor might break & each time to hit 1.24, these same guys are expecting to hit 1.28 within days... Personally, I am happy with the range 1.225 to 1.242
I am not worried here but asking - the last time we hit 1.228 did we just sit there and do nothing like today or move. Today's D1 bar looks pretty poor. Should we even care as long as the level holds?
  • #10,945
  • Edited 1:14pm Aug 28, 2013 12:46pm | Edited 1:14pm
to Lover Man, funny, I just replied the same question on an other forum, though... you already have the answer.
So, although, I totally miss-calculated the Syria issue this morning, I am now convinced that the future of this pair is 100% related to this issue. The minute the first missile flies off (with the cunning message written on it 'give 'em hell', and the pair will drop 100 to 150 pips...

BUT, if this issue somehow fades down, it's 50 to 100pips up...

I don't know the answer, I just want to be ready for both options.

Sleep tight.
  • #10,946
  • Aug 28, 2013 5:47pm Aug 28, 2013 5:47pm
Today's pivots are all condensed due to yesterday's small range.

R2 - 1.23147
Mid point - 1.23108
R1 - 1.23069
Mid point - 1.22993
PP - 1.22916
Mid point - 1.22877
S1 - 1.22838

Price has just popped above 1.23 and Mid point 1.22993 and is looking for R1 1.23069.
  • #10,947
  • Aug 28, 2013 7:11pm Aug 28, 2013 7:11pm

Price just blew through R1 to the mid point 1.23108


Next up is R2

  • #10,948
  • Aug 29, 2013 12:08am Aug 29, 2013 12:08am
I expect little move for the next couple of days, as there are no major stats being published. More over, I now think that the main driver for this pair will be Syria & I do not expect any changes before the W.E.... UN inspectors still have 3 days to complete their jobs and it would seem weird to start bombing while the colleges are working down there...
Hence, I expect it to be fairly flat today & tomorrow a tendency for the CHF to get stronger, as the risk of 'fire works' will amplify by the end of the W.E. or early next week.

In the mean time;
- Bears want to stay bellow the psychological 1.23, and sitting as close as possible from support 1.2285
- Bulls want to stay above 1.23 & if possible to pass 1st coming resistance at 1.2314 & go for 1.234

But, as said, I expect the price action to be fairly flat today
  • #10,949
  • Aug 29, 2013 1:25am Aug 29, 2013 1:25am
We have employment data from USA today. Couldn't this spark some upside life into USD CHF which would drag this up with it?

A lot of chat on here about USD CHF being a good buy. Wouldn't the Syria situation force the fed to delay any tapering?
  • #10,950
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:45am Aug 29, 2013 7:45am
R2 hit - where will we close?
  • #10,951
  • Aug 29, 2013 7:56am Aug 29, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Lover Man
R2 hit - where will we close?
Nobody knows, but... we have H1 & H4 candle close in 8 minutes. To me, if:
- we close above the 1.2315 =>we are bullish, next station 1.234
- we close below => range 1.2285 to 1.1315

Of course, the bullish momentum could come later, but within 3 to 4 hours, the volumes will be reduced, volatility too, and it might remain flat till tomorrow...
  • #10,952
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:44am Aug 29, 2013 9:44am
Go Go Go
  • #10,953
  • Aug 29, 2013 9:45am Aug 29, 2013 9:45am
Next Mid point - 1.23224
Weekly Pivot - 1.23267
  • #10,954
  • Aug 29, 2013 11:28am Aug 29, 2013 11:28am
Who was it who wrote a few pages back that EUR CHF is not traded or doesn't move due to FX trading and is instead moved due to market flows or some other means needs to look at today's chart and the pivot levels I posted. EUR CHF respects these Pivots more than any other pair I have studied. Easy money could have been made today just buying bounces from broken pivots up to the next pivot above. When I have my capital reserve back up to strength this is what I'll be doing.
  • #10,955
  • Edited 1:23pm Aug 29, 2013 1:05pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting Lover Man
Who was it who wrote a few pages back that EUR CHF is not traded or doesn't move due to FX trading and is instead moved due to market flows or some other means needs to look at today's chart and the pivot levels I posted. EUR CHF respects these Pivots more than any other pair I have studied. Easy money could have been made today just buying bounces from broken pivots up to the next pivot above. When I have my capital reserve back up to strength this is what I'll be doing.
I hardly work with pivots for intra day trades, but, I must say that the levels you gave today were.... very relevant. Well done.

Personally, I work a lot (on EURCHF) with key levels (support / resistance), RSI in H1 and see what the USDJPY is doing in parallel. Also, this pair likes channels (I'll post you some next time, I see one - though, we are still in the several weeks old 4H channel).

My gut feeling is that we will hit 1.234 tomorrow before falling back to 1.2314 or 1.2285...

'In SNB I trust'
  • #10,956
  • Aug 29, 2013 1:51pm Aug 29, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting PhilouFX
{quote} I hardly work with pivots for intra day trades, but, I must say that the levels you gave today were.... very relevant. Well done. Personally, I work a lot (on EURCHF) with key levels (support / resistance), RSI in H1 and see what the USDJPY is doing in parallel. Also, this pair likes channels (I'll post you some next time, I see one - though, we are still in the several weeks old 4H channel). My gut feeling is that we will hit 1.234 tomorrow before falling back to 1.2314 or 1.2285... 'In SNB I trust'
The levels are not mine. My mt4 outputs them. I observed this pair respect them and realised money could be made. But then it stopped moving and the respect died.

My view is if price doesn't retrace after the main trading ends then price will continue in its direction.
  • #10,957
  • Aug 29, 2013 3:12pm Aug 29, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Lover Man
{quote} The levels are not mine. My mt4 outputs them. I observed this pair respect them and realised money could be made. But then it stopped moving and the respect died. My view is if price doesn't retrace after the main trading ends then price will continue in its direction.
Yes, I know that these R3, R2, R1, pivot, S1, S2, S3 are not yours ... But, in the past I hardly used them.
When it comes to channels, please check this one out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchfprom30.png Size: 33 KB
  • #10,958
  • Aug 30, 2013 2:31am Aug 30, 2013 2:31am
I doubt there are to many people wanting to hold long eur/chf over this weekend especially with USA holiday on monday and maybe a US strike on syria
  • #10,959
  • Aug 30, 2013 3:56am Aug 30, 2013 3:56am
Quoting brinks
I doubt there are to many people wanting to hold long eur/chf over this weekend especially with USA holiday on monday and maybe a US strike on syria
Yes this is a good idea to close some longs for weekend, and buy it back on monday, or it depend the situation on Syria.

But in the other hand, fundamentally there some other factors:

Syria:
- it seems UK will not take part of the action
- USA will only take limited action, if they will any

SNB cap:

Next week is the 2. anniversary of CAP. This may has important psychological impact.

Last year this time was the begining of this rally from 1,200 level. The message was: "SNB could hold the cap for one year, so we could beleive in this"

2.nd year message: "The pair could live without SNB action. Could rally, could create higher lows, higher highs on daily, and there are a continuos raising 200 SMA which is not broke for one year. So this pair has a lot of opportunity for higher levels"

So my strategy:

- Close half of my longs after todays US datas
- if there is an attack on Syria over the weekend, buy back on gap down, or any spike down on monday
- if there is no attack watch the situation, and buy back later

I will hold these positions for a new daily high
  • #10,960
  • Aug 30, 2013 4:58am Aug 30, 2013 4:58am
Agree with all point of views. The most difficult aspects is the potential gap on Sunday night (which could be up or down).
I personally reduce my exposure, but still keep some positions.

I guess next week will see some high volatility...
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