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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,061
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:14am Aug 2, 2013 3:14am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi nic73,
Well I forgot the screenshot... I edited the thread! know you can see the screenshot
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,062
  • Aug 2, 2013 11:56am Aug 2, 2013 11:56am

Trading from the Google of Phillip Nel


IT HAS TO DO WITH RISK APPETITE


I took the trade this morning; a long trade-SEE INSET A and B - the 4hour and 1hour charts respectively. As you can see in my charts - the insets, I saw nice tails which signifies buy pressure...I definitely know that it is time for a nice retracement of price to the north, I also know that with respect to the daily time frame, it is going to be rough ride to the north, in the sense that in as much as price is ready to go north; there will be some shaking out or struggle for that to happen. So for me price will go up? YES!! BUT IN A VERY MOODY WEATHER....I do not like flying in such scenarios....my risk profile or appetite is not strong for such a journey...and as we know that anything may still happen...and when the storm begins, one might not be in a nice place do a very good exit...you may see yourself in a certain place in the market where you are stucked....you can't adjust your stoploss to BE, if you exit, you will be making a very big loss, and if you allow the deal to play out, you can't be sure it will go in your favor...a very pathetic state a trader may find himself...SO IT IS THE A GOOD POSITION MANAGEMENT THAT CAN HELP OUT IN SUCH SITUATION.

That is exactly what helped me; I took the long trades-two positions, and when price began to reverse beyond my risk appetite, I did not allow it to get to my stop loss and I closed the deals....

Then I got a nice chance to go short....then I took 2 trades to the south; but I did have in mind the overall or long term situation of the market in the sense that I can see that the potential of a big move to the north in strongly there....based on that, I quickly took partial profit in my short trades,and set the 2nd deal to BE....then price sorted itself out and reversed strongly to the north. By virtue of the way I manage my position, I did not make any loss, but the profit was very small...

Hope my explanation is clear???
I have good details in my chart.
Will come back with a document on the essence of 1hr early entry technique as Phillip Nel has shown it

God Bless Phillip!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: august-2-1st trade failed and 2nd one taken.png Size: 90 KB
  • #26,063
  • Edited 4:10pm Aug 2, 2013 11:57am | Edited 4:10pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi nic73, I looked to your pdf. Her is my comment The second trade completely agreed! I also looked to it and didn't took this trade because of the bad R:R (<1) The first trade: price is above 89 (mood is uptrend) price already back to 8 and 21.... so price needs to be at the end of the trend will we have profit off it! and I didn't see a real end of trend at that time. well oke... price was consolidating and could go in both directions at that time... that was my interpretation. Well I didn't took the trade because of this reason
well,Well... Was something wrong in my interpretation......?!?

This morning I saw the MACD signal... we hit the 89 and a rule was saying: if price away form 8 it tends to go back to it.....maybe to 21 or halfway.
SL was about 40pips
normally I want a R:R from >1 so in this case Tp = SL = 40 pips
another rule is: if in an uptrend...and price is falling below the 8 it tends to to go back to it, maybe to 21 or halfway...and then price retrace to the 89 and break it (the market rhythm is completed).


Anyway...if I did 40 pips at that time...price needed to go above 21...and that was against the rule (Or am I wrong here.....?!?!) besides that with a smaller TP my R:R was bad => So it wasn't a deal for me this morning!!!

At this time we have the next chart (see the attachment)...the trade would completly fit ...and if I decided this morning to take the deal...it would be a real profit deal!!

So my question is...was I right , did I missed something or was it just a good decision at that time?!

I'm very curious what the other traders here are thinking about this possibility?!
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,064
  • Edited 1:18pm Aug 2, 2013 12:37pm | Edited 1:18pm
Hey HappyMe,

Just my two cents, I was thinking about entering long last night, but did not see a good confirmation candle before I slept. The rules show that there will be a bounce off the 89 to the 21 when price 1st hits the 89. Also, it is coming off a strong daily S/R zone. My question is, the placement of your SL. Mine would have been just below the low of the wick of your entry point, and would have been stopped out (if I had confirmation in the 15min or 1hr). Why was your SL placed where it was?

Also, another reason I personally didn't enter was because of non-farms.

Quoting HappyMe
{quote} well,Well... Was something wrong in my interpretation......?!? This morning I saw the MACD signal... we hit the 89 and a rule was saying: if price away form 8 it tends to go back to it.....maybe to 21 or halfway. SL was about 40pips normally I want a R:R from >1 so in this case Tp = SL = 40 pips aqnother rule is: if in an uptrend...and price is falling below the 8 it tends to to go back to it, maybe to 21 or halfway...and then price retrace to the 89 and break it (the market rhythm is completed). Anyway...if I did 40 pips at that...
  • #26,065
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:33pm Aug 2, 2013 3:33pm
good
  • #26,066
  • Aug 2, 2013 3:58pm Aug 2, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting TheresaH
Hey HappyMe, Just my two cents, I was thinking about entering long last night, but did not see a good confirmation candle before I slept. The rules show that there will be a bounce off the 89 to the 21 when price 1st hits the 89. Also, it is coming off a strong daily S/R zone. My question is, the placement of your SL. Mine would have been just below the low of the wick of your entry point, and would have been stopped out (if I had confirmation in the 15min or 1hr). Why was your SL placed where it was? Also, another reason I personally didn't enter...
Hi Theresah, thanks for replying and your sight of it!!

you asked me why the SL is where I put it... well normally I round the SL to a nice round number.. like 20, 30 , 40 pips etc....
From entry point to last low wick was 28/29 pips.... well 30 pips is then very short to the last low....that is why I took 40 pips! In my backtesting that sometimes just save my life...price is retesting the last low, before it maybe goes in the right direction.... and you need luck with just a few pips (1 to 5 pips) for be in life....or lose your trade....that's why....

again thanks for replying!!

Have a good weekend!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,067
  • Aug 2, 2013 4:00pm Aug 2, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting harshfxx
good
Hi harshfxx.... your a man of few words
Did you ment my question about the trade? Why do you think it's a good decission?

Thanks, Best regards and have a nice weekend!
HappyMe
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,068
  • Aug 3, 2013 6:35am Aug 3, 2013 6:35am
Hi fellow traders,

Again the week is completed..and again my backtesting is! See the attachment! Any comment is welcome!!

Well it wasn't a busy week for this strategy when you look at the MACD-signals.
The last three days we had an increase of volatility with the EURUSD

Here are the results:Score for this week (WITHOUT noticing the for me tradable times):
- MACD gives 5 times a signals
- With 1 tradable signals
- With 1 profitable trades
- With 0 lost trade
- Total possible pips were in my way of decision: 25 pips


Score for this week (WITH noticing the for me tradable times):
- MACD gives 5 times a signals
- With 1 tradable signals
- With 1 profit trades
- With 0 lost trade
- Total possible pips were in my way of decision: 25 pips
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 29to04August2013.pdf   540 KB | 502 downloads
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,069
  • Edited Aug 4, 2013 3:19am Aug 3, 2013 9:07am | Edited Aug 4, 2013 3:19am
Quoting HappyMe
Hi fellow traders, Again the week is completed..and again my backtesting is!
Well again I'm looking to my backtesting...
I think I can manage to go to level 2 (well level 1 is for me following the rules, step to is implementing candle stick formations...at this way step by step I try to manage the overwelming information in his threat!)

So I was searching to nice information and find a site with "The Top 10 Best Candlestick Patterns" google it and you want to get the site I think at the first result. Anyway it is talking about:
Bullish patterns: Engulfing / Hammer / Harami / Piercing / Doji
Bearisch patterns: Engulfing / Shooting star / Harami / Dark Cloud Cover / Doji
Bullish Kicker and Bearisch kicker

Well I looked to my backtesting last week and I directly see that trade 4 is indeed a deal.. In my backtesting I decided it as No deal!!
Why is it a deal?!

Price is above 89 (mood is uptrend)
Price reached pricelevel 1.33 we have tails (emotion) and price is falling back to 21
3 bars back: we are in an uptrend and we have a bullish tail...wel it's emotion but does not say anything about direction...
2 bars back ...we are in an uptrend...reaching pricelevel andwe have a bearish tail!! price may reverse here!!
1 bar back we have a small bearisch candle back to 1.33 (sort of indicision.... market is evaluating which way to go)
at entry time we have a strong move untill the 21
at the same time we have a RT in the MACD ... (High Propability)

That seems to me that we can go down...especially the tail up and the RT is saying that!

SL = last swing high = +/- 70 pips
TP= SL = 70 pips....just above pricelevel 1.32

Well that would worked out?!

What are you thinking here?! Am I forcing a trade here?!...or is this trading with the 4Hours MACD system with use of the candle stick formations?!
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,070
  • Aug 3, 2013 1:57pm Aug 3, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well again I'm looking to my backtesting... I think I can manage to go to level 2 (well level 1 is for me following the rules, step to is implementing candle stick formations...at this why I try to manage the overwelming information in his threat!) So I was searching to nice information and find a site with "The Top 10 Best Candlestick Patterns" google it and you want to get the site I think at the first result. Anyway it is talking about: Bullish patterns: Engulfing / Hammer / Harami / Piercing / Doji Bearisch patterns: Engulfing / Shooting...
Isn't that a countertrend trade? I'm a newbie, not comfortable with CT trades yet. For me, my current rules---only long when price above 89 and short when price below 89. For me, I'd only looked at engulfing and pinbar setups as confirmations in my backtest. They seemed the most reliable---especially engulfing. When I see them, I'd feel more comfortable when the MACD shows a signal.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,071
  • Aug 4, 2013 9:27pm Aug 4, 2013 9:27pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} well,Well... Was something wrong in my interpretation......?!? This morning I saw the MACD signal... we hit the 89 and a rule was saying: if price away form 8 it tends to go back to it.....maybe to 21 or halfway. SL was about 40pips normally I want a R:R from >1 so in this case Tp = SL = 40 pips another rule is: if in an uptrend...and price is falling below the 8 it tends to to go back to it, maybe to 21 or halfway...and then price retrace to the 89 and break it (the market rhythm is completed). Anyway...if I did 40 pips at that...
Hi HappyMe,

Thank for your postings.

To reply you post #26,060: you asked if I have a book on candle formation? To answer that, I downloaded some write up on candle formation on the websites; one of the website I most frequently visit is www.onlinetradingconcepts.com. Do give it a try.

Now to reply post #26,063: I am not sure about your point - not that you are not correct but I am just an amateur with forex and this strategy, thus I do not have an answer to it. Perhaps can we have someone else to answer this question for us please?

HappyMe, my opinion is I don't regret having not taken that trade, we have done the analysis and we have the basis as to why we decided not to trade it. I better to be safe than to regret later. There is no 100% where the market can go this is forex remember? There is never a sure or 100% in forex, we could analyse and decide to trade or not. And in our case we decided not to and I feel I lost nothing but if I did trade and it went my opposite direction, make losses and then regret. When I was decided to take this trade or not I have a few think in mind 1) it's a counter trend trade 2) it's a Friday 3) the market for the week has been very volatile and 4) NPF was just a few hours away.

I have a question, when it is counter trend, is it likely that the price retrace to 89ma? Can someone enlighten HappyMe and I by taking this question. Will grateful. Thanks. And thanks HappyMe.

Nic
  • #26,072
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:04am Aug 5, 2013 2:04am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi HappyMe, Thank for your postings. To reply you post #26,060: you asked if I have a book on candle formation? To answer that, I downloaded some write up on candle formation on the websites; one of the website I most frequently visit is www.onlinetradingconcepts.com. Do give it a try. Now to reply post #26,063: I am not sure about your point - not that you are not correct but I am just an amateur with forex and this strategy, thus I do not have an answer to it. Perhaps can we have someone else to answer this question for us please?...
hi, well I'm also an amateur but anyway I want to improve my results. So after every trade and decision I review it and try to look if I was right, could I do it better...etc..etc...

Your decision markers looks good I think (counter trend, Friday, volatile market and NPF) Thanks for your answer!

The question I had wasn't: "when it is counter trend, is it likely that the price retrace to 89ma?"

My question was.... Did we had indications at the emotions (tails) at arround pricelevel....in combination with RT that price could fall back...??
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,073
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:09am Aug 5, 2013 2:09am
The chart attached is a 4 hour chart for EURUSD, that happened on 5th August at 0000hour.

Would it make sense if I took this trade based on the following argument
1. 1. Entry candle is at the opening of the last (white) candle
2. The candle before the entry candle formed a long tail
3.At the long tail candle, price pulled back to 8am (almost did touch) at the initial stage of the candle formation. It then moved away closing with a tail. Thus possibly forming a counter trend trade.
4.MACD shows uptrend, continuous trend
5.The long tail candle
6.Profit at 20pips gain (at 1.32932)
7.Stop loss at 8 or 21ma, which worked out to be 18 to 20 pips loss
8. Profit : SL = 1:1 ratio
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx EURUSD 05082013 (1).docx   26 KB | 334 downloads
  • #26,074
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:11am Aug 5, 2013 2:11am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} hi, well I'm also an amateur but anyway I want to improve my results. So after every trade and decision I review it and try to look if I was right, could I do it better...etc..etc... Your decision markers looks good I think (counter trend, Friday, volatile market and NPF) Thanks for your answer! The question I had wasn't: "when it is counter trend, is it likely that the price retrace to 89ma?" My question was.... Did we had indications at the emotions (tails) at arround pricelevel....in combination with RT that price could fall back...??...

Hi,

What is RT?
  • #26,075
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:30am Aug 5, 2013 2:30am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi, What is RT?

RT= Round Top
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,076
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:37am Aug 5, 2013 2:37am
Quoting nic73
The chart attached is a 4 hour chart for EURUSD, that happened on 5th August at 0000hour. Would it make sense if I took this trade based on the following argument 1. 1. Entry candle is at the opening of the last (white) candle 2. The candle before the entry candle formed a long tail 3.At the long tail candle, price pulled back to 8am (almost did touch) at the initial stage of the candle formation. It then moved away closing with a tail. Thus possibly forming a counter trend trade. 4.MACD shows uptrend, continuous trend 5.The long tail candle 6.Profit...
Hi Nic73,

I looked to your chart and I have a counterquestion for you.... Did you had an MACD signal at that time?!

If no...then you don't need to look further! No MACD signal is definitely no deal!!

I think it would be wise that you read the first post in this thread again... I also did read it a lot of times (still now I often go back to Phillip lessons)

Hope this answer help you to manage the system

best regards, HappyMe
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,077
  • Aug 5, 2013 2:49am Aug 5, 2013 2:49am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi Nic73, I looked to your chart and I have a counterquestion for you.... Did you had an MACD signal at that time?! If no...then you don't need to look further! No MACD signal is definitely no deal!! I think it would be wise that you read the first post in this thread again... I also did read it a lot of times (still now I often go back to Phillip lessons) Hope this answer help you to manage the system best regards, HappyMe
Hi HappyMe,

In the chart that I have made (see attachment here), I thought the MACD is moving upwards, is that called as the continuous trend and is that not the MACD signal? Or have I misunderstood what MACD signal is? Thanks for commenting.
Attached Image
  • #26,078
  • Aug 5, 2013 3:17am Aug 5, 2013 3:17am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hi HappyMe, In the chart that I have made (see attachment here), I thought the MACD is moving upwards, is that called as the continuous trend and is that not the MACD signal? Or have I misunderstood what MACD signal is? Thanks for commenting. {image}
Indeed I think you misunderstood what an MACD signal in this system is. Please I suggest you read post one of this threat. In the first pdf in the first post...Phillip explained in this pdf the system in overview included the different MACD-signals.. work this through (included all his lessons, it's a real eye opener...for me at least it is/was!)
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #26,079
  • Aug 5, 2013 5:01am Aug 5, 2013 5:01am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Indeed I think you misunderstood what an MACD signal in this system is. Please I suggest you read post one of this threat. In the first pdf in the first post...Phillip explained in this pdf the system in overview included the different MACD-signals.. work this through (included all his lessons, it's a real eye opener...for me at least it is/was!)

Hey thanks for replying. Will do so and speak to you later. At the meantime keep posting so that I can learn from you. Cheers!
  • #26,080
  • Aug 5, 2013 7:07am Aug 5, 2013 7:07am
Hi,

I am bit unsure here but is there going to be a potential trade here. Meaning is price going to move down to 89sma line? Thank you for answering.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4 05082013 (2).png Size: 30 KB
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