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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Well I hope so Hope I'm backtesting at the right way. last month (july) we had the following score (if I could trade every signal!) total MACD signals: 30 total valid trades: 10 winners: 9 losers: 1 Well I remember that Philip ones said.... normally you have 10 to 12 valid trades per month. If you have more you searching for trades!! Well in that way I think I'm not doing that bad...
Thanks for the weekly and monthly review. It really helped me understand the system a lot better. I need to be a whole lot more patient. Been seeing trades when there weren't any. Gotta tighten up.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
Well I believe we had a valid trade.

We have as MACD-signal (buy)
Price is above 89 (mood=uptrend)
price came back to 21 and bounced back


SL = lastsinglow... = 40pips
TP = SL = 40pips.... but pricelevel is in between there... TP can also be at pricelevel...

We see...hope I learned from my back-testing
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
Quoting HappyMe
Well I believe we had a valid trade. We have as MACD-signal (buy) Price is above 89 (mood=uptrend) price came back to 21 and bounced back SL = lastsinglow... = 40pips TP = SL = 40pips.... but pricelevel is in between there... TP can also be at pricelevel... We see...hope I learned from my back-testing
I didn't follow the rules of SL and TP as I did in my backtesting so I changed SL and TP!!

SL = just below lastswing low = 1.32368 = 30pips
TP = SL => well that's arround pricelevel...I changed TP to 1.32960 = 29pips then R:R is 0.96... well that is oke I think!

now.. I have to wait .....and see what will happen
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I didn't follow the rules of SL and TP as I did in my backtesting so I changed SL and TP!! SL = just below lastswing low = 1.32368 = 30pips TP = SL => well that's arround pricelevel...I changed TP to 1.32960 = 29pips then R:R is 0.96... well that is oke I think! now.. I have to wait .....and see what will happen

Worked out..... 29pips profit

Waiting for the next possibility
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Worked out..... 29pips profit Waiting for the next possibility

I'm still in long position for that one. Going for 1:2 RR. Tighten my stoploss in the event news is bad for the position.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
Quoting edge-t
{quote} I'm still in long position for that one. Going for 1:2 RR. Tighten my stoploss in the event news is bad for the position.
Oke... are you thinking at take some profit or....going back to BE!?

I didn't and hold myself to my plan. Because I only take trades (for now) with a R:R of 1 (or very close to it) If I see a real opportunity I can decide an otherway. e.g. we just break a pricelevel and next resistance is the next pricelevel... well in that case it's ofcourse an other story!!

In my backtesting I also only try to take R:R = 1 trades.... so SL and TP is +/- equal. I was backtesting this way of trading and it was working for two months in a row for now. So I try to do the live testing like the backtesting.... when that is working for me.... only then I want to allow myself do other things

Well anyway...I didn't say...you shouldn't do it! I put my thumb high for you...Hope it's working out for you
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
Well, I looked through a few months of charts---not a whole lot, but I'm holding out for whatever the market decides to drop on me. Basically, I'll set my stoploss to BE once it's +30 pips. 1. If the market retraces and takes me out, BE. 2. If it goes up, likely it will retrace to the last swing high/low which will be my next stoploss target minus a couple of pips. so, I'll move my SL to the next retracement level every time the market moves in my favor and scale in more lots if the condition favors it. Eventually, the market will reverse and take me out. That's something I've thought about. Just trying it out for the next 1-2 months.

I think this way, I'll have a lot of BE trades and probably winrate will suffer, but I could hit the occasional 1:5 payout.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
Quoting edge-t
{quote} I'm still in long position for that one. Going for 1:2 RR. Tighten my stoploss in the event news is bad for the position.
Just got taken out at BE level. Oh well, next trade.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,049
  • Quote
  • Edited 11:14am Jul 30, 2013 11:02am | Edited 11:14am
Quoting edge-t
{quote} Just got taken out at BE level. Oh well, next trade.
It's a break even...so it's oke

I thought about your last comment. But for me it's no fun when I try to trade and I hit relative often the BE. In my opinion: you take a risk and your agreed with BE or in worst case a lost Did you backtested your way of SL / TP and BE? What was your outcome.... maybe it is a nice idee/practise to get my backtesting of the last four weeks....and make your way of Money Management..... what is the outcome then? I'm very curious!!!

I think you have a more solid Money Management when you take some profit at your first target....and then put the rest to BE. That sounds more solid in my opinion for now! Well okay finally, I want to trade like that....but first I need more confident and money (don't want to risk my Ferrari right now! ) in the system before I allow me play it like that! For now, for me SL=TP is good enough...if it works!

I also traded like Philip somewhere mentioned.... if your profit reached 20 or 30 pips then go to BE. But for me that was resulting in less winners, more BE and also less profit.... in that backtesting period. I also noticed in my backtesting that the result maybe could be better to just let the trades run... (another point here is: "I doesn't need to follow the trade if it is running. It saves me a lot of thinking...am I right, am I wrong, do I need to close at BE or not, maybe waiting...yes it goes high....ow F** .... well do you get the point....at that way I burn my tradingplan and there is big change I will turn a winningtrade into a loser!! ) I also noticed that the last swing low/high often was the profit area (after the MACD gives the signal.... before it retreat a little...well not always ofcourse!! (....funny or?!) after that maybe a push in the right direction...or maybe not. Well that's why I feel more comfortable at the SL= TP way..... for now

Anyway I speak ofcourse of my own feeling and trading behaviour...every trader has to search for his way ofcourse!:nerd:

Ciao!
HappyMe
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
HappyMe: I've thought about watching a trade going up 30 pips before diving to take out my stop at BE---heart breaking. Ran some back tests, some trades came up with +250 pips in 1 move when it's TRENDING. Imagine scaling in at every retracement when it's trending. The possibility is crazy. In the short term, I guess 1:1 breaks your heart less often Still, I'm trading 0.01 lot atm for the next few months just to work things out. Afterall, I'm new to this and might as well try and try it with pennies(low risk).

I've thought about taking partial profit after reaching 1:1, but I'm taking things down to the minimum atm because I blew 10% of my capital doing pretty dumb trades the last 2 weeks. So, 0.01 lot for the next 1-2 months till I'm settled down.

Backtest showed great possiblity and if it happens to take out your SL at the next retracement, you can usually enter in the trend after the MACD shows a signal again. I might go back to 1:1 RR, if I can't stand BE and losses. Thing is, this MM might not work in a ranging market. Then again, I'm a newbie. Will have to try it live before confirming anything.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
Am I right to say that we should try to only take MACD TC signals when price retraces to 8 or 21 MA, and not when price is a distance from the MAs?
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.

HAPPY AUGUST!!!


Trading from the GOOGLE of Phillip Nel


August 1, 2013-EUR/USD: 8:00 candle open: GMT+3


Hello brothers and sisters in this wonderful thread! Wishing everyone here a Happy new month! I have been trading consistently and aggressively and within the rules of this system, and I am happy to see all the trade commentaries here. I appreciate all your insights and dedication to this thread. I know the rule is very clear for almost all of us now...that is very nice.

I have made a lot of trades not posted yet...other departments of life each time come knocking on my door demanding for full attention. And by natural injunctions, it is not really nice to rob any department of our lives of its benefits just to please the other. It is written: For everything under the heavens, there is a season, and a time to every purpose-Eccl 3:1
Time Pray, to eat, to bath, to sleep, to laugh, to trade (a time to actually execute either a sell or buy order, time to take profits from the market, time to set stoploss to breakeven, time to stay away from the market, etc). And this is what every creation is doing in life; either consciously or unconsciously. And as soon as one is able to spot the right time to do any thing and act accordingly, success is achieved!!! A NATURAL RULE!!! AND APPLICABLE TO EVERY AREA OF HUMAN EXISTENCE AND LIFE! THIS IS VERY POWERFUL!!!

Want to say to everyone that I may not be posting trades very often, but in case anyone needs me to assist in any way, you can just connect to me from the private mail service that FOREXFACTORY offers here as well as the email service, and I can come to you for help. I do check the forum from time to time even though I may not post during the process.

Wishing you all happy trading!!!

I have taken my first profit, and my 2nd profit is close to the Daily 21ema (INSET A IN MY CHART), the 1.399 level. This is because the rule says that when price breaks a trend line, it pulls back to it. I am expecting that to happen on the daily as well as the 4HOUR...SEE MY NEXT POST FOR MY 2ND PROFIT TARGET.
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2ND PROFIT TARGET


I just logged in now: market is sluggish in movement, just after this post, I will be adjusting my stop loss. I am going to see someone and is likely to spend up to 8hrs...hopefully target will be reached without getting to my stop loss.
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Quoting edge-t
Am I right to say that we should try to only take MACD TC signals when price retraces to 8 or 21 MA, and not when price is a distance from the MAs?
The rule is saying if market rhythm is established:
If price moves away from 8MA it tends to go back to it...and maybe to 21 (or haveway)

an other rule (if market rhythm is established):
If in a trend and price come back to 21 and bounced here with a TC MACD pattern.... Trend maybe is to continue (High probability)

an other rule (if market rhythm is established)
If price closed below 21.....it tends to go back to it and afterwarts it come back to 89 (end of Market Rhythm)

Is this answering your question?
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return

6 HOURS FROM MY LAST POST


Update:

See what happened after about 6 hours.


I just came back from where I went as mentioned in my post above. Then I logged in to know how my trade is doing, and the chart below is what had happened as at the time I logged in. Position not filled yet, but price has still got the potential or strength to get to my 2nd profit target.
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4 HOUR SITUATION

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Take profit-Target 2


Proximately reached

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Quoting naustingfx
Take profit-Target 2 Proximately reached {image}
hi naustingfx,

very nice to see how you do it!! I find it impressive!!

Well I only trade the 4H-chart (don't really look at the 1H for taking trades etc)
But with only the 4H-chart I was waiting for a pull-back to the 21 and then go down to the 89.... well it seems you had the whole wave and I was still waiting
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
Quoting HappyMe
Hi, I finished my backtesting for last week (22 to 28 July)... see the pdf-file for details Here are the results: Score for this week (WITHOUT noticing the for me tradable times): - MACD gives 13 times a signals - With 3 tradable signals - With 2 profitable trades - With 1 lost trade - Total possible pips were in my way of decision: 20 pips Score for this week (WITH noticing the for me tradable times): - MACD gives 13 times a signals - With 3 tradable signals - With 2 profit trades - With 1 lost trade - Total possible pips were in my way of decision:...

I have not posted here that often but I do follow the forum when I find time to do so. Happy Me, I study your backtesting I learn from it the first time I read it. I am doing something to what you are doing and posting this to you for comment. Tell me if my analysis is correct, ok. Anyone on this forum and interest to read my post, I also welcome your comment. I am still learning how to implement this method of trade. Please support me and help me. Grateful and thank you very much.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Backtesting EURUSD in August 2013.pdf   158 KB | 353 downloads
Quoting nic73
{quote} I have not posted here that often but I do follow the forum when I find time to do so. Happy Me, I study your backtesting I learn from it the first time I read it. I am doing something to what you are doing and posting this to you for comment. Tell me if my analysis is correct, ok. Anyone on this forum and interest to read my post, I also welcome your comment. I am still learning how to implement this method of trade. Please support me and help me. Grateful and thank you very much. {image}
Hi nic73,

I looked to your pdf. Her is my comment

The second trade completely agreed! I also looked to it and didn't took this trade because of the bad R:R (<1)

The first trade:
price is above 89 (mood is uptrend)
price already back to 8 and 21.... so price needs to be at the end of the trend will we have profit off it! and I didn't see a real end of trend at that time. well oke... price was consolidating and could go in both directions at that time... that was my interpretation. Well I didn't took the trade because of this reason ...besides that...the market was very volatil the last 2 or 3 bars....

After all I didn't trust it. But I think your evaluation is oke.... with Doji and Bearisch Engulfing! Well maybe it's now it's a good time for me to take the bar formations also in my trade decissions.

Well I put a screen shot in it....
is the first square not less or more the same as the second square?
price came in both squares back to the 8 / 21 and in the first square the price is halted and in the second square the price is pulled down. The only difference in behavior are the tails in the second square... but for now I can't put a finger behind it for how to trade with this sort of formations?!

Hope you can push me a little in the right direction!!

Can I ask you "Do you have nice and good bar formations book to learn more of candle formations?!

Beste regards,
HappyMe

ps. Keep on posting, We all learn from it...
Attached Image
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