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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #33,321
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:01am Apr 7, 2013 4:01am
Quoting capitulation
Chances are great, I closed all of my Yen positions Friday because I thought I saw a better setup shorting the Euro. Really wishing I had held some if not all the Yen shorts, but I booked the profits and at the end of the day that's what this is all about. I think there will be better Yen setups coming in the next couple weeks, but a run up to close 100 looks in the cards probably by Tuesday.
yes i would like to add to my positions on a pullback.

But as plofkip said i think we are done with any significant retracement for now.

May have to add if it gets back to 96.710
  • #33,322
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:10am Apr 7, 2013 11:10am
Quoting brinks
yes i would like to add to my positions on a pullback. But as plofkip said i think we are done with any significant retracement for now. May have to add if it gets back to 96.710
Yeah any significant retraces would be surprising considering the price action. I can't see a retrace past 96.56 which the 61.8% retrace of Friday's move.

I like your 96.71 level because that is March's high. I'm going to be aggressive around 97.00. The 38.2% retrace of Friday isn't far away at 97.05.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,323
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:15am Apr 7, 2013 11:15am
Quoting zusch
Yeah any significant retraces would be surprising considering the price action. I can't see a retrace past 96.56 which the 61.8% retrace of Friday's move. I like your 96.71 level because that is March's high. I'm going to be aggressive around 97.00. The 38.2% retrace isn't far away at 97.05.

It's hard being really aggressive at these levels.
even though after Fridays poor NFP it still went up which must be bullish.
I would prefer 38.2 retrace of the weekly fib not fridays.
Or even a 50% retrace at 95 but dont think we will get it.
  • #33,324
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:25am Apr 7, 2013 11:25am
Quoting brinks
It's hard being really aggressive at these levels. even though after Fridays poor NFP it still went up which must be bullish. I would prefer 38.2 retrace of the weekly fib not fridays. Or even a 50% retrace at 95 but dont think we will get it.
Yeah the report was bad, but you can't fight the tape. Price action is saying for at least the near term future we are in a strong uptrend. Momentum like this won't just disappear so buying dips can be fairly safe.

Retrace down to 38.2% of the weekly Fib usually would be reasonable, but that would mean a retrace down to Friday's lows, which would be a little extreme in my opinion. I think the daily chart looks like it wants to march higher similar to on Nov. 18, 2012.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,325
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:30am Apr 7, 2013 11:30am
Quoting zusch
Yeah the report was bad, but you can't fight the tape. Price action is saying for at least the near term future we are in a strong uptrend. Momentum like this won't just disappear so buying dips can be fairly safe.
Agreed
  • #33,326
  • Apr 7, 2013 11:59am Apr 7, 2013 11:59am
Even the 4hr doesn't look like its ready to stop. Possible that this week's low could be found during the first 4 hours of trading. Entry at 97.34, which is last 4hr's 61.8% retrace & Friday's 23.1% daily retrace, with a stop at 97.17 could work.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #33,327
  • Apr 7, 2013 12:36pm Apr 7, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting zusch
Yeah the report was bad, but you can't fight the tape. Price action is saying for at least the near term future we are in a strong uptrend. Momentum like this won't just disappear so buying dips can be fairly safe. Retrace down to 38.2% of the weekly Fib usually would be reasonable, but that would mean a retrace down to Friday's lows, which would be a little extreme in my opinion. I think the daily chart looks like it wants to march higher similar to on Nov. 18, 2012.
I practice more of a Discretionary Trading style and at a macro level I think there is substantial risk of sovereign default in Japan in the next year or two. With that being said, I have several large positions Yen short positions that I will not cover until such default. My feeling however, last week, everybody was lining up to take advantage of the BoJ disappointing the markets. I think there is a great chance for the Yen Bulls to take another crack at 99.8 , keep in mind the Yen has dropped for 7 month's in a row, much of this purely on speculation of the BoJ and Abe's policies that might work.

All of the Cliché's are in play - You can't fight the tape - The trend is your friend - At this juncture I would just exercise caution. I think in the coming weeks there will be a great chance to reload between 90 and 94. The 50% fib from the 124.13 swing hi in 2007 to the 75.56 swing low in 20011 is 99.8. It just doesn't seem likely at all to me that it USD/JPY will be able to clear 100 on the first try which is really while I closed my yen shorts on my trading account in the first place.

If I don't blow up my trading account (http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php#91) I will be shorting USD/JPY at around 99.5
  • #33,328
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:11pm Apr 7, 2013 4:11pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php#detail=45181

be careful
  • #33,329
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:38pm Apr 7, 2013 4:38pm
being bid up like a balloon. up over 580 in 2 days and counting

the central bank has successfully intervened in this one, its a bubble
  • #33,330
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:43pm Apr 7, 2013 4:43pm
Up 100 pips since the Ozzies got started.
At this rate it'll be through 100 before New York's put the trash out on Sunday evening!
(No, I doubt that, but ...)
  • #33,331
  • Apr 7, 2013 4:51pm Apr 7, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Plofkip
Up 100 pips since the Ozzies got started. At this rate it'll be through 100 before New York's put the trash out on Sunday evening! (No, I doubt that, but ...)
needs a technical retracement. its chart looks logarithmic.
  • #33,332
  • Apr 7, 2013 6:24pm Apr 7, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting Halba
needs a technical retracement. its chart looks logarithmic.
I think we will see a retracement once we hit the 101.30 -101.50 area, before that point I really am not sure we will see something in terms of even a minor technical retracement.
  • #33,333
  • Apr 7, 2013 10:14pm Apr 7, 2013 10:14pm
What can I say... USD/JPY has been a beast.
  • #33,334
  • Apr 8, 2013 12:45am Apr 8, 2013 12:45am
Quoting Iwc
I think we will see a retracement once we hit the 101.30 -101.50 area, before that point I really am not sure we will see something in terms of even a minor technical retracement.
Agreed!
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  • #33,335
  • Apr 8, 2013 1:55am Apr 8, 2013 1:55am
Close the gap buy some more
  • #33,336
  • Apr 8, 2013 12:11pm Apr 8, 2013 12:11pm
-> 100 - 100, 30
  • #33,337
  • Apr 8, 2013 1:25pm Apr 8, 2013 1:25pm
50 % fibo
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  • #33,338
  • Apr 8, 2013 2:16pm Apr 8, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting brinks
Close the gap buy some more
Gaps may take weeks, months or years to close. Its not guaranteed to close on the same day. And a gap in this bullish x/jpy move I doubt will get filled soon.
  • #33,339
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:12pm Apr 8, 2013 3:12pm
Quoting Unknownpips
Gaps may take weeks, months or years to close. Its not guaranteed to close on the same day. And a gap in this bullish x/jpy move I doubt will get filled soon.
Yep I agree
  • #33,340
  • Apr 8, 2013 3:23pm Apr 8, 2013 3:23pm
long and strong to $150
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